Early Winter Storm Update

15. November 2018 · Comments Off on Early Winter Storm Update · Categories: Fall, snow, weather discussion · Tags:

The overnight temperature didn’t drop as much as I expected. The early arrival of clouds was responsible for that. Right now we are around 30 degrees in southern warren county. Other locations are in the mid to upper 20’s to the north.

Temperatures 8 am Thursday morning

Many school districts have early dismissals today.

Radar 8:30 am

The radar show the approach of the wintry precipitation. Take note that the light snow just to our SW is not yet reaching the ground. This is common in the winter time when the atmosphere is cold and dry before a storm. It takes a little bit for it to moisten up enough for the precipitation to reach the ground.

Once the snow changes to rain, we expect the total liquid from this storm to be over 1″ and possibly even 1.5″ in some spots. So a lot of the frozen precipitation on the ground will get washed away in some spots

Timing: Look for snow to arrive in western New Jersey between 10 am and 1 pm from SW to NE. Don’t be surprised to see the snow go to sleet after it starts and then back to snow. This is due to the warmer temperatures before the snow. ONce the snow starts it will cool off the temperature.

Sleet will start mixing in and even change over starting as early as 4pm to around 7 pm.

Rain will start mixing in and then changeover around dinner time in the southern areas to 10 pm further north

NWS snow forecast

How Much: The NWS has maintained their snow forecast of 2-3″ for most of western New Jersey with a bit more further north. My thinking is the sleet will arrive sooner and keep totals down to a coating to 2″ with more to the north.

Don’t be surprised if the rain ends as some wet snow early Friday morning as colder air comes in behind the departing storm. Quieter weather is expected for the next several days

Thursday Wintry Update

14. November 2018 · Comments Off on Thursday Wintry Update · Categories: Fall, snow · Tags: , ,

NWS snow forecast for Thursday

Many computer models and other sources of information used to make weather forecasts have trended colder for tomorrow’s storm. The high pressure system to the north that will develop today will be stronger than originally thought. As a result today we will not see temperatures go up that much from where there are now despite sunshine. Tonight will be the coldest night of the new cold season.

As a result I’m increasing my snow forecast for tomorrow to a coating to 2″ with more to the north. The snow will still mix with and change to sleet/freezing rain and then rain my Thursday evening. The devil is in the details as they say as to when this happens. Most of the time for for I-78 corridor this happens sooner than anticipated. I’m counting on that to happen again this time hence why my snow totals are lower than the NWS map above. But of course the potential is there to receive more.

Friday April 6 2018 Weather Roundup

06. April 2018 · Comments Off on Friday April 6 2018 Weather Roundup · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , , ,

Still not feeling like spring!

NWS 5 day forecast

Everyone in western New Jersey woke up to some light snow falling. It’s only accumulating on colder surfaces and thankfully not the roads. This is a sight folks in western New Jersey have become too familiar with this Spring!

Ironically today will be one of the warmer days for a while. Today’s light snow is a result of a warm front moving through the area. Later this afternoon we should have high temperatures in the upper 50’s.

But don’t get too used to it. A cold front will come thru early Saturday morning which will bring cooler air for the weekend. Believe it or not this is a good thing. This push of colder air is going to steer another snow storm to our south. Only southern New Jersey and point south should see any significant accumulations from this next system. We could all see some light snow or rain showers, primarily in the morning. Remainder of the weekend will be on the cool side.

More cold air for Monday and Tuesday along with our next, dare I say last chance of snow or mixed precipitation for Tuesday. Then after that the pattern finally looks to relax and allow some warmer and more seasonable weather to arrive in our area by late week or next weekend!

Winter Weather Advisory Overnight Into Monday Morning

01. April 2018 · Comments Off on Winter Weather Advisory Overnight Into Monday Morning · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: ,

NWS snow forecast for April 2, 2018

This ain’t no April Fools joke unfortunately. Thankfully many school and closed for Spring Break tomorrow so the morning commute should be light.

Since a lot of this will be falling at night, it should stick on colder surfaces like grass and car roof tops, etc.

...Early Spring Snow Expected Tonight through Monday Morning...

408 AM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches   are expected. Up to 6 inches possible in a few spots.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey   and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,   including during the morning commute on Monday. Expect reduced
  visibilities at times. High temperatures in the 40s will lead to   rapid melt during the afternoon and early evening hours on
  Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1. Highest accumulations expected on grassy surfaces.

Say It Ain’t Snow

31. March 2018 · Comments Off on Say It Ain’t Snow · Categories: snow, spring · Tags:

NWS snow forecast for early Monday morning

First off Happy Passover and Easter to all those that observe!

Will this be the year without a Spring? April is starting off where March left off. While today is a rather nice but still cool spring day, things will get cooler next week. A quick moving disturbance is set to visit western New Jersey in the late night and then early morning hours on Monday morning. I’m in agreement with the above map at this time for colder surfaces. Good news is most of this will be gone by afternoon and most of the kids are on Spring break so no school delays/closings.

Then more cool damp weather into next week. Yes Spring will arrive. Let’s just hope it arrives for more than a few days and we don’t go straight into Summer!

Spring Snow Storm Recap

22. March 2018 · Comments Off on Spring Snow Storm Recap · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

10.4″ snow recorded in Stewartsville

Another over producing storm. Snow lasted longer into the night than anticipated. Thankfully the winds stayed light (so far). Everything once again looks like a winter wonderland. But its Spring. I hear the term used that its really “Sprinter” and I think that fits well.

How much snow?

Besides Stewartsville let’s look around the area:

...Hunterdon County...
    Frenchtown            11.0  1100 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Flemington             9.7   500 AM  3/22  Social Media            
    White House Station    9.0   540 AM  3/22  Meteorologist           
    Readington Twp         8.6   611 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Three Bridges          8.2   749 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Byram                  8.0   544 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Ringoes                5.0   600 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Readington             4.7   550 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter
...Morris County...
    Netcong               12.0   600 AM  3/22  Meteorologist           
    Green Pond            12.0   511 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Marcella              11.0   820 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Succasunna            10.0   225 AM  3/22  Social Media            
    Butler                 9.5   323 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Denville               9.3   330 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Budd Lake              8.8  1145 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    N Jefferson Twp        7.0  1026 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Morris Twp             7.0  1153 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    2 E Randolph Twp       7.0  1100 PM  3/21  CoCoRaHS                
    Roxbury Twp            6.0   550 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Monroe                 5.5   654 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Jefferson Twp          5.0   542 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Parsippany             4.0   918 PM  3/21  Meteorologist           
    Pleasantville          3.7   943 PM  3/21  Newspaper
...Warren County...
    Hackettstown          10.5   741 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Stewartsville         10.4  1030 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Allamuchy              8.5   633 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Oxford                 8.3  1115 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Hope                   6.5   632 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter
...Northampton County...(PA)
    Williams Twp          14.5   131 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Hellertown            12.3   734 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Easton                12.1  1145 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    North Catasauqua      11.8   130 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Upper Nazareth Twp    11.1   800 PM  3/21  Meteorologist           
    Bath                  10.1   946 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Cherry Hill           10.0  1130 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Bushkill Twp           9.1  1155 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Martins Creek          7.0   823 PM  3/21  Social Media      

Look Ahead

5 Day NWS forecast

Thankfully no Nor’Easter #5 is in the 7 day forecast. But then again Spring warmth isn’t in the forecast either. There might be some rain or snow showers on Friday and Saturday night. Other than that continued cool but at least sunny at times and above freezing so the snow can start to melt.

Looking longer term some low 50’s look in the forecast for portions of next week. But for the true arrival of Spring we may have to wait until next month.

Storm Starting To Wind Down

21. March 2018 · Comments Off on Storm Starting To Wind Down · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

Radar loop Wednesday evening 7:15 pm

Today’s storm is slowly starting to wind down. Expect to receive a additional coating to 1 or 2″ between now and end of storm. Snow should end completely by late evening if not before. Don’t be surprised if it ends as some sleet or light rain. The temperature might warm up a little as the precipitation gets lighter

Wednesday Afternoon Update on Spring Snowstorm

21. March 2018 · Comments Off on Wednesday Afternoon Update on Spring Snowstorm · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , , ,

6.2″ in Stewartsville as of 3 pm

Everything is on track for snow in most areas in western New Jersey. There has not been as much snow in far northern locations

NWS Snow Forecast

The updated NWS snow forecast above is more in line with my thinking.

Wednesday Morning Storm Update

21. March 2018 · Comments Off on Wednesday Morning Storm Update · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

Snow falls on some spring bulbs in Stewartsville, NJ

Everything is still on track this Wednesday morning. Stewartsville has received 1.3″ of snow as of 7:30 am. Look for snow to fall at various rates today. During lighter periods of snow during mid day (if there are any) you might notice road conditions improving a little. Where these heavy snow bands setup will determine how gets the most snow.

My forecast of 4-8″ is still on track with more to the east. Some areas could locally receive more.

NWS Snow Forecast

Winter Storm Warning remains in effect. Winds will become gusty later today and tonight into Thursday morning.

Welcome to Spring 2018!

Welcome To Spring Snowstorm

20. March 2018 · Comments Off on Welcome To Spring Snowstorm · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

Experimental Storm Severity Index

All of western New Jersey is in the bulls eye of the next (fourth) major storm in the month of March. Has kismet that it starts on the official start of Spring!

In looking at the potential severity of this storm in the above experimental graphic from the NWS, you can see most of western New Jersey is in the Major category.

Snow start timing

Here is a graphic showing the start time of the precipitation. Keep in mind that today, Tuesday the precipitation will be light compared to tomorrow. There’s also a good chance the precipitation today will be a wintry mix of snow, sleet and rain. As the second storm approaches on Wednesday is when we will see predominately snow.

NWS Snow Forecast

The above graphic does a nice job of showing how much snow for western New Jersey is forecast. Note that more snow is forecast to the south and east.

This will be once again one of those storms that features:

  • heavy wet snow
  • snow accumulating on colder surfaces more than roads
  • snow may not accumulate on roads during the day until heavy snow falls

Winds will also become gusty as Wednesday progresses. Power issues are possible from either the wind, wet snow or both.

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