20. January 2016 · Comments Off on French Toast Warning In Effect for Saturday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , ,

NAM-20161120-AM

All the computer models are in for this morning. Confidence remains high that the area will experience a moderate snow event on Saturday.

Here are some facts for this upcoming storm:

  • There will be a sharp cut off in precipitation on the north side of the storm
  • Higher amounts will fall to the south. Northern section of western New Jersey will be aided by elevation to an extent but more moisture will be present to the south
  • Snow will not start until early Saturday morning before sun up

If I had to put an amount down for western New Jersey I’d say 6-12+ at this point. Less to the north and more to the south and perhaps south-west.

So I expect the grocery stores will start being busy on Thursday and should be crazy and Friday so if you need bread, eggs and milk, plan accordingly!

More updates on Thursday

20. January 2016 · Comments Off on Wednesday Morning Update On Snow · Categories: snow, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Good Wednesday morning in western New Jersey. Today will be not as cold and windy as the last two. High should be in the 30’s and the winds should be lighter. There will be an increase in clouds and we could see some flurries or snow showers overnight. Some areas could receive a coating – others nothing

Then our attention turns to the weekend snow storm. While the morning computer runs are being created an evaluated I wanted to share the following:

  • It now looks like the snow will not start until after midnight on Friday. So Friday day and evening should be fine. In fact there may only be a couple of inches of snow on the ground Saturday morning when you wake up
  • As you can see from the precipitation map above, the bulls eye for this storm is going to be to our southwest. But even with that being said we are still looking at the potential for a good amount of precipitation
  • One of the important computer models we use as a tool to forecast the weather, did return us to a snowy solution last night. As you may recall that model moved the heavy snow south of us but now has us in a moderate snow event.

Once all of the updated models are in and analyzed (mid afternoon) I will post an update. It’s possible at that time the NWS may issue some watches of their own and I may issue a French Toast Warning!

19. January 2016 · Comments Off on French Toast Watch Now In Effect · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: , ,

Original_French_Toast

Good Tuesday afternoon. Western New Jersey is continuing with winter-like conditions for a change. Blustery and chilly this afternoon with high temperatures once again not going above freezing.

Wednesday will be a little warmer with high temperatures in the 30’s. Thursday could feature some morning flurries but will be another day with high temperatures in the seasonable 30’s

Then our attention turns to the weekend. As discussed yesterday a storm system approaching the west coast will make its way across the US reaching our area later Friday evening into the weekend. Computer models, a tool that meteorologist use to forecast the weather in the future, continue to indicate this storm will impact our area with significance.

So hence forth the french toast watch is not in effect. This could be upgraded to a warning in 1-2 days. So start thinking about gathering your comfort feeds, milk, bread and eggs. I’m sure based on the hype in the media for this storm, the supermarkets will start getting busy on Wednesday and will be full bore crazy on Thursday!

 

18. January 2016 · Comments Off on Cold Air Returns · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

20160117_161450

The light snow that fell yesterday afternoon certainly over performed in western New Jersey. Stewartsville received about 1/4.” additional reading from other areas are listed below.

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Cold weather continues today and tomorrow. It will remain at or below normal most of the week. Then our attention turns to a storm potential for Friday into Saturday. Computer weather models have been consistent in showing this storm for Friday into Saturday. The overnight models continue to show this potential. right now the storm is north of Hawaii so it still has to travel a long way. If the storm reaches its potential in our area we could receive a heavy snow. There’s a chance it could move further away and we receive only a little or it could move closer to us and we go from snow to rain. I will continue to monitor the storm potential.

Here are additional snow reports from yesterday and overnight:

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 7
hours for the weather system that has been affecting our region.
Appreciation is extended to cooperative observers, Skywarn spotters,
the general public and the media for these reports. This summary is
also available on our home Page at weather.Gov/phi

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location          storm total     time/date   comments                   
                     snowfall           of 
                     /inches/   measurement

Delaware

...New Castle County...
   New Castle County Ai   0.8   700 PM  1/17  ASOS                    
   New Castle             0.7   420 PM  1/17  social media            
   Newark                 0.3   400 PM  1/17  cocorahs                

...Sussex County...
   Delmar                 2.8   234 PM  1/17  social media            
   Milton                 0.5   635 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

Maryland

...Queen Annes County...
   Barclay                0.5   325 PM  1/17  social media            

New Jersey

...Atlantic County...
   Atlantic City Intl a   2.8   700 PM  1/17  ASOS                    
   Estell Manor           2.5   615 PM  1/17  co-op observer          
   Mays Landing           2.3   600 PM  1/17  social media            
   Bargaintown            2.0   532 PM  1/17  social media            
   Absecon                1.5   550 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Burlington County...
   Mount Holly WFO        0.8   700 PM  1/17  NWS office              
   Florence               0.8   700 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Fort Dix               0.7   532 PM  1/17  social media            
   Delran TWP             0.6   545 PM  1/17  NWS employee            
   Hainesport             0.5   515 PM  1/17  social media            
   Mount Laurel           0.5   358 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Cinnaminson            0.3   401 PM  1/17  social media            

...Camden County...
   Sicklerville           1.0   335 PM  1/17  NWS employee            
   Haddon Heights         0.7   550 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Lindenwold             0.4   510 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Cape May County...
   Dennisville            2.2   734 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Belleplain             2.0   845 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Cape May Court House   2.0   845 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Seaville               1.8   700 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   2 NW Cape May          1.5   846 PM  1/17  co-op observer          
   Green Creek            1.0   700 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Goshen                 0.7   845 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Cumberland County...
   Newport                1.1   830 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Vineland               1.0   600 PM  1/17  social media            

...Gloucester County...
   Washington TWP         0.6   613 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Williamstown           0.5   330 PM  1/17  amateur radio           

...Hunterdon County...
   Flemington             0.3   324 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Mercer County...
   2 WSW Robbinsville     0.8   500 PM  1/17  cocorahs                
   Ewing                  0.7   500 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Lawrence TWP           0.6   533 PM  1/17  social media            

...Middlesex County...
   Cheesequake            1.0   800 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   East Brunswick         0.4   533 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Monmouth County...
   Manalapan              1.0   640 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   1 E Colts Neck         0.9   600 PM  1/17  cocorahs                
   Howell TWP             0.9   510 PM  1/17  social media            

...Morris County...
   2 E Randolph TWP       0.4   635 PM  1/17  cocorahs                

...Ocean County...
   Waretown               2.0   630 PM  1/17  social media            
   Forked River           1.5   700 PM  1/17  social media            
   brick TWP              1.0   712 PM  1/17  social media            
   Lakewood               1.0   715 PM  1/17  social media            
   Bayville               0.1   500 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Somerset County...
   5 ESE Hillsborough     0.8   700 PM  1/17  cocorahs                
   Basking Ridge          0.6   536 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Sussex County...
   Highland Lakes         0.3   500 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Warren County...
   Blairstown             0.1   743 PM  1/17  social media            
   Stewartsville            T   808 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

Pennsylvania

...Berks County...
   Huffs Church           0.3   356 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Bucks County...
   Furlong                0.6   539 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Hilltown TWP           0.3   355 PM  1/17  NWS employee            

...Delaware County...
   Chadds Ford            0.5   806 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Lehigh County...
   Heidelberg TWP         0.8   425 PM  1/17  social media            
   Lehigh Valley Intl a   0.1   700 PM  1/17  ASOS                    

...Montgomery County...
   Wynnewood              0.4   500 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Gilbertsville          0.3   400 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Philadelphia County...
   Philadelphia Intl Ai   0.5   700 PM  1/17  ASOS

 

13. January 2016 · Comments Off on Snowfall Reports in Western New Jersey · Categories: snow · Tags:

20160112_191137

AS of 8:30 pm Stewartsville received 1/2″ of snow today. Here are some additional reports in other areas:

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location          storm total     time/date   comments                   
                     snowfall           of 
                     /inches/   measurement

New Jersey

...Camden County...
   Haddon Heights         0.1   856 PM  1/12  trained spotter         

...Mercer County...
   Ewing                  0.2   841 PM  1/12  NWS employee            
   Lawrence TWP           0.1   855 PM  1/12  social media            

...Morris County...
   Succasunna             0.4   440 PM  1/12  social media            

...Sussex County...
   Wantage                1.0   747 PM  1/12  trained spotter         
   Sussex                 0.9   820 PM  1/12  social media            
   4 SW Wantage           0.6   826 PM  1/12  NWS employee            
   Hardyston TWP          0.1   420 PM  1/12  cocorahs                

...Warren County...
   Blairstown             0.6   754 PM  1/12  social media            
   Stewartsville          0.5   755 PM  1/12  trained spotter         

Pennsylvania

...Berks County...
   Temple                 0.8   631 PM  1/12  trained spotter         
   Huffs Church           0.6   842 PM  1/12  trained spotter         

...Bucks County...
   Furlong                0.6   851 PM  1/12  trained spotter         

...Chester County...
   Phoenixville           0.8   839 PM  1/12  social media            

...Lehigh County...
   S Allentown            0.7   700 PM  1/12  trained spotter         
   Lehigh Valley Intl a   0.2   700 PM  1/12  ASOS                    

...Monroe County...
   Tobyhanna              1.9   823 PM  1/12  penndot                 
   Long Pond              1.6   823 PM  1/12  penndot                 
   Mount Pocono           1.4   737 PM  1/12  trained spotter         
   Stroudsburg            0.2   824 PM  1/12  penndot                 

...Montgomery County...
   Gilbertsville          0.9   746 PM  1/12  trained spotter         
   Royersford             0.5   802 PM  1/12  social media            
   Harleysville           0.5   730 PM  1/12  social media            

...Northampton County...
   Bushkill TWP           0.8   757 PM  1/12  trained spotter
12. January 2016 · Comments Off on Snow Squall Enters Western New Jersey · Categories: snow · Tags:

radar20160112-1921

Wind gust to 39 mph in Stewartsville and 0.2″ of snow on the ground. It came fast and furious.

20160112_191116

12. January 2016 · Comments Off on DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALLS WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

radar20160112-1655

The leading edge is just about to hit Harrisburg at 5pm. This just released from the NWS:

CECIL-HUNTERDON-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-WESTERN
CHESTER-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN CHESTER-LEHIGH-UPPER
BUCKS-
433 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

…DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALLS WILL MOVE IN BY 6 PM EST…

* AT 430 PM EST…A SNOW SQUALL WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SNOW SQUALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY 6 PM EST.

* VISIBILITIES NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL LIKELY FALL IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL INTO OR THROUGH THIS DANGEROUS
SNOW SQUALL. RAPID CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND POTENTIALLY SLICK ROADS
COULD LEAD TO ACCIDENTS. CONSIDER DELAYING TRAVEL UNTIL THE SQUALL
PASSES YOUR LOCATION.

A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID FORMATION OF
BLACK ICE ON AREA ROADWAYS. BLACK ICE IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE
AND ROADWAYS MAY APPEAR WET. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION…ESPECIALLY
ON BRIDGES…OVERPASSES AND AROUND CURVES. ALLOW PLENTY OF STOPPING
DISTANCE AND AVOID BRAKING SUDDENLY.

12. January 2016 · Comments Off on Flurries-Light Snow Moving Into Region · Categories: snow · Tags: , ,

radar20160112-1523

First round of light snow is nearing the end in western New Jersey. There will be a lull in the activity as you can see in the radar above. The next area will be more likely to be snow squalls as this will be accompanied by the cold front.

Radar20160112-1404

Look for these flurries and snow showers to become more frequent as the afternoon wears on. Unfortunately the rush home might be the peak. These caused numerous accidents west of here in Indiana earlier today.

12. January 2016 · Comments Off on Coating of Snow Possible Today · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: , ,

Accuweather

Good morning western New Jersey. We are waking up to mostly cloudy and cold this Tuesday morning. Today will feature two minor rounds of snow today. The first will be primarily flurries that will be around mid day. There could be a brief break then another round later in the afternoon into the evening. The second round could be more in the snow shower or even a snow squall as the arctic front moves through. Both of these could leave a coating in some areas to a 1/2″ or 1″ in others. Higher amounts will be to the north and west.

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StormTotalSnowWeb1 (1)

NWS Snow fall expected

11. January 2016 · Comments Off on Cold week Ahead · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , , ,

20160111-WxGraph

Wanted to share the above weather graph from my home weather station in Stewartsville, NJ. Notice the impressive and steady temperature drop from early afternoon which is constant to right now! You can clearly see from the temperature (top) and the pressure (bottom) when the cold front came through. Of course many people in western New Jersey could also see and hear when the cold front came through yesterday! Not only were there impressive clouds and heavy rain squalls but thunder and lightning in some spots too! Quite impressive for January!

7day

A reinforcement of cold air is going to arrive on Tuesday courtesy of a fast moving storm system called a “clipper.” We will see flurries and even some snow showers in western New Jersey tomorrow into tomorrow night. It’s not out of the question that some locations could receive a dusting of snow by Wednesday morning. This is more likely to the north and west but could happen anywhere!

There will be a slight warm up by end of week followed by another storm late weekend into next week then more cold air.

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