Details On Weekend Snowstorm

22. January 2016 · Comments Off on Details On Weekend Snowstorm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

 

 

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The National Weather Service has upgraded the Winter Storm watch to a Warning which was expected.

Timing: While some light snow or flurries could start before midnight tonight I expect the snow to start around midnight. If you like to look at radar on the internet, you WILL see snow on the radar BEFORE midnight. But it won’t reach the ground. The air mass we are in right now is COLD and DRY. It will take a while for it to “moisten up.”

How much: My forecast for western New Jersey continues at 6-12″ – less to the north and more to the south. Northern areas of western New Jersey could be closer to 3-6″ while southern areas closer to a foot or slightly more. You will not have to go that further south to see a nice increase in snowfall.

How long: Look for the snow to last about 24 hours so it should start to taper off around midnight or the early morning hours of Sunday morning

Winds: Will be noticeable. Closer to the shore they will be very windy with gusts 40-60 mph. In western New Jersey we could see wind gust to 30-40 mph at times. Once we have snow on the ground this will cause snow to blow and drift at times. That combined with snow falling will reduce visibility at times. We probably won’t meet the criteria for a blizzard but will be close at times.

Intensity: Snow rates will vary. There will be times when it will only be snowing lightly. Then there will be times it will be near blizzard like conditions. This storm will have snow in bands that will vary from light to heavy. there *may* even be thunder snow!

Concerns: I’m concerned with the sharp cut off of snow in northern areas. Any change to the storm track will drastically change snow amounts in all areas. We could easily change snow amounts be 6″ in either direction if the storm deviates from the expected track.

Updates: I will post updates today and throughout the weekend on the storm. Besides this blog you can also follow me on twitter: dabour

French Toast Warning In Effect for Saturday

20. January 2016 · Comments Off on French Toast Warning In Effect for Saturday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , ,

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All the computer models are in for this morning. Confidence remains high that the area will experience a moderate snow event on Saturday.

Here are some facts for this upcoming storm:

  • There will be a sharp cut off in precipitation on the north side of the storm
  • Higher amounts will fall to the south. Northern section of western New Jersey will be aided by elevation to an extent but more moisture will be present to the south
  • Snow will not start until early Saturday morning before sun up

If I had to put an amount down for western New Jersey I’d say 6-12+ at this point. Less to the north and more to the south and perhaps south-west.

So I expect the grocery stores will start being busy on Thursday and should be crazy and Friday so if you need bread, eggs and milk, plan accordingly!

More updates on Thursday

Beautiful Weather Alert

18. April 2015 · Comments Off on Beautiful Weather Alert · Categories: spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , ,

7Day

There’s only two bad things I can say about today’s weather in western New Jersey: 1) it won’t last forever and 2) it’s accompanied by dry breezy conditions that will cause us to once again be under a Fire Warning from 3 pm – 8 pm today. So please be careful with any outdoor fires and report anything that looks like one to 911 ASAP!

Chilly Saturday With Flurries?

28. March 2015 · Comments Off on Chilly Saturday With Flurries? · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , , ,

RADAR

The calendar may say Spring and late March but today will feel more like early February. It could be worse: some folks in SE PA and Long Island are waking up to some light snow this morning that is coating the ground in some places! There’s a chance some sections of western New Jersey could see some flurries today. If you are in a heavier snow shower don’t be surprised if it briefly whitens the ground.

7Day

Believe it or not our normal high temperature now should be 54 degrees! Today will be blustery and cold with high’s not getting out of the upper 30’s. This is unfortunate as I know there are some outdoor activities (i.e. Easter Egg Hunt) that begin now. After a very cold start, Sunday will be a little warmer and feature mostly sunny skies and less wind that should help a little. Then there’s a chance of some light rain or snow showers Sunday night into Monday morning as warmer more seasonable air makes it into the region. End of week looks to have high temperatures near 60 but with increased rain chances.

First Full Day of Spring Weather

21. March 2015 · Comments Off on First Full Day of Spring Weather · Categories: spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , , ,

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Yesterday’s storm certainly over-performed as far as I’m concerned. While I knew more snow would fall that would accumulate, I didn’t expect the longevity of the intensity that resulted in more snow accumulating than I forecasted. Stewartsville received 4″ of wet snow. Here are some additional accumulations in the western New Jersey area:

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
   FRANKLIN               5.2   730 PM  3/20  COCORAHS
   STANTON                5.0   742 PM  3/20  SOCIAL MEDIA
   WHITEHOUSE STATION     4.8   602 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   READINGTON             4.5   839 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   KINGWOOD               4.5   634 PM  3/20  SOCIAL MEDIA
   THREE BRIDGES          4.3   638 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   READINGTON TWP         1.4   100 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER


...WARREN COUNTY...
   OXFORD                 4.3  1244 AM  3/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   STEWARTSVILLE          4.0   950 PM  3/20  SOCIAL MEDIA
   ALLAMUCHY              3.6   737 AM  3/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HACKETTSTOWN           3.5   630 PM  3/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   RIEGELSVILLE           3.0   733 AM  3/21  CO-OP OBSERVER
   BLAIRSTOWN             2.0   152 PM  3/20  SOCIAL MEDIA

…NORTHAMPTON COUNTY… WILLIAMS TWP 6.5 1209 AM 3/21 TRAINED SPOTTER FORKS TWP 6.0 728 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER BETHLEHEM 5.5 559 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER EASTON 5.3 615 PM 3/20 SOCIAL MEDIA HELLERTOWN 5.2 1032 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER DANIELSVILLE 4.5 1031 PM 3/20 SOCIAL MEDIA BUSHKILL TWP 4.5 1232 AM 3/21 TRAINED SPOTTER NAZARETH 4.3 953 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER BUSHKILL CENTER 4.0 630 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER MARTINS CREEK 3.8 515 PM 3/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

Capture
Saturday will be the better of the two this weekend weather wise. Look for partly sunny skies with temperatures near 50. There will be a breeze which combined with the temperature and sun should help to melt most if not all that fell yesterday. There could be a brief rain shower this evening as colder air arrives in the region. Sunday will be sunny but cold for this time of year. Colder than normal will continue into the new week until a nice warm-up arrives on Wednesday, albeit with a chance of rain.

Saturday Rain – Improving Sunday

14. March 2015 · Comments Off on Saturday Rain – Improving Sunday · Categories: spring, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , ,

7DayWestern New Jersey received about 1/3″ of rain so far as of Saturday morning. It should continue to rain steady until early afternoon. Then we should just have showers the rest of the day and start to dry out later this evening.

Happy Pi Day!

Sunday Shovel & Scrape

22. February 2015 · Comments Off on Sunday Shovel & Scrape · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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Western New Jersey received about 4” of snow from the system that started around mid day on Saturday. The snow started off with a vengeance but then tapered to only light snow and flurries for several hours yesterday afternoon. If you lived further to the north and west the snow may have stopped completely. The snow “winner” of sorts were further to the south. The heaviest snow axis was from around Washington, DC to Philly to Trenton to just west of NYC. I put winner in quotes because these locations also saw sleet and freezing rain after the snow.

Stewartsville never switched over to mixed precipitation which very much surprised me. We came VERY close to doing so. Hunterdon county did switch over last evening as did points to the south and east. I believe Lehigh Valley also stayed all snow as did areas of new jersey to the north.

I picked this blog title not to be cute (well a little) but to also emphasize today is the day to get stuff done outside. For a change we will break freezing today and the sun should make an appearance as well. Winds should not be too bad either. So get outside and shovel, scrape, shop and do what needs to be done. Why? Another arctic front will be moving through later that will drop the temperature again. Monday will start off with a low in the low teens and not really recover at all during the day. We may “climb” up to the mid teens. But then the bottom drops out again Monday night and Tuesday morning will find us below zero overnight lows. Tuesday will be another cold day then we recover a little on Wednesday.

Keeping an eye on an Alberta clipper system for mid week which may give us a quick snot of light snow. Then attention turns to next weekend.

I hope to get out myself today and take some snow photos. If I do I’ll share these later. Enjoy the Sunday warmth!!

Here are some additional snow reports from western new jersey area:

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
   WHITEHOUSE STATION     4.0  1000 PM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
...WARREN COUNTY...
   HARMONY TWP            4.5   851 PM  2/21  SOCIAL MEDIA
   STEWARTSVILLE          3.2  1130 PM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HACKETTSTOWN           3.0  1205 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   OXFORD                 2.5  1115 PM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BLAIRSTOWN             1.8  1100 PM  2/21  SOCIAL MEDIA
...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
   BETHLEHEM              4.1   150 AM  2/22  BROADCAST MEDIA
   FORKS TWP              3.8  1010 PM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BUSHKILL TWP           2.4  1230 AM  2/22  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MARTINS CREEK          2.0   926 PM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER

Saturday Snow Update

21. February 2015 · Comments Off on Saturday Snow Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , ,

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Western New Jersey woke up to partly sunny but cold skies with overnight lows once again below zero. Stewartsville recorded –3.

Enjoy the sun while it lasts. Clouds will quickly increase today and snow will overspread the area from noon to 2 pm. Snow will become heavier from late afternoon into the evening hours.

The big question is how much snow? It will be a race between how long the cold air can hang on while warmer air moves in. I’ve seen countless times before where warm air wins in western new jersey area (especially southern locations). Today I think there will be enough precipitation that will arrive before this happens that will give us a good amount of snow. I’m increasing my forecast range to 3-6.” As you can see in the map above the National Weather Service believes we will see more snow than that. In fact they are forecasting 4-8” with 6-8” being common. Most of western New Jersey is under a Winter Storm Warning. We certainly can see those amounts if the sleet and freezing rain holds off.

The wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain will most likely win out overnight. But precipitation should end early Sunday morning by the time most folks wake up. Sunday looks to be warmer (more seasonable) so enjoy it while it lasts. Another arctic air mass will move in Sunday in Monday that will drop as back into the freezer on Monday. Tuesday morning looks to be another below zero morning at this point.

As far as when to shovel, I recommend making a pass before retiring for the evening if possible. This way you will get most of the snow before it turns to a wintry mix and freezing rain gets into the snow and makes it much heavier. This may start out as a light and fluffy snow but as the storm goes on the snow will become heavier and wetter in nature.

Cold Sunny Saturday Then Soggy Sunday

17. January 2015 · Comments Off on Cold Sunny Saturday Then Soggy Sunday · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: , , , ,

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Cold start this Saturday with early morning lows in the upper single digits in western new jersey. Today will be a partly sunny day (clouds increasing in the afternoon) with highs in the mid to upper 20’s. Enjoy the sunshine while it lasts. Clouds are already starting to increase to our west and south west from tomorrows rain maker. Look for temperatures to drop early this evening into the teens then slowly rise overnight to the mid to upper 20’s by day break.

As you can see above in the maps Sunday will be wet. More rain will fall to our east. Western new jersey will be on the western fringe of the rainfall. Expect rain to start on Sunday by mid morning and end by mid afternoon. It may start off as a little sleet or snow in the beginning but then go over to rain. I’m expecting 1/4” to 1/2” in this area. Over 1” of rain will fall in eastern new jersey near the shore.

Our next chance of precipitation will be a clipper on late Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now it looks to stay to our north which will put us on the warm side. We could see some light snow over to light rain. More details as we get closer. Enjoy a cold Saturday!

Snow to Sleet Then Rain

03. January 2015 · Comments Off on Snow to Sleet Then Rain · Categories: snow · Tags: , , ,

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A mixture of snow and sleet should overspread the area my midday. Warmer air will be right behind it and we should be all rain by mid afternoon, early evening the latest. Temperatures have already risen this morning from overnight lows in the upper teens to near 30 degrees. Wind is light but out of the warmer east. This will cause any frozen precipitation that falls to only accumulate on colder surfaces. Look for a light slushy accumulation in southern and eastern areas and up to 1” in the north and west.

The NWS has issues a winter weather advisory for today for Warren, Northampton and further north and west. Hunterdon county is NOT included.

Even though temperatures are rising rapidly this morning, the temperature should drop a little once the precipitation starts. This is know as evaporational cooling. It will last for only a little while then the temperature will continue to rise.

Temperatures tonight will actually rise and be in the upper 50’s by Sunday afternoon! But don’t get used to that yet. Much colder air will rush in Sunday night and Monday causing our temperatures to fall well below normal for the work week ahead.

I’ll post updates if warranted.

DD

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