A Winter Weather Advisory is up for most of western New Jersey for Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This will primarily be at an elevation from 1000′ and above but there could also be some in the valley locations. This will eventually change over to all rain. The map above shows the potential amounts of freezing rain ending at 1 pm Thursday
We’ll squeeze out one more semi-pleasant day today with high temperatures near 50. There will be increasing clouds but still a nice day by late January standards. Look for rain to arrive before sunrise tomorrow. Some areas to the far north could see a little freezing rain at the beginning of the rain. As a result, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for northern counties.
This shouldn’t be that bad and confined mostly to higher elevations and the Poconos. We’ll warm up tomorrow and all areas will change to rain.
Speaking of rain we’ll be getting a good dose of it tomorrow. Look for 1-1.5″ of rain for the entire western New Jersey area.
We should start to dry out later in the day on Saturday. On Sunday the winds will pick up as the storm departs but we could see some scattered rain or snow showers.
Looking at the week ahead our above normal temperature pattern continues with high temperatures near or just above 40. No important precipitation threats until, wait for it, the following weekend.
Another chilly night in western New Jersey area. Despite plenty of sunshine, today’s temperatures will only be a couple of degrees higher than Monday. Winds will continue on the light side which will help a little.
When we’ve had cold weather outbreaks, Florida so far this winter has been missing most of the action. Well, not this time. So hopefully you nor anyone you know is vacationing down there this week. the OJ will be extra chilly the next couple of mornings!
Temperatures will warm up to the 40’s on Thursday and Friday. Out next weather maker will be Saturday. As it looks now it will be more wet than white.
After early morning lows in the upper teens and low 20’s, we should see plenty of sunshine today. Despite the sun, we will struggle to get near the freezing mark today and tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be chilly with lows in the teens.
The second half of the week will feature warming temperatures with highs in the 40’s.
Our next storm system will arrive just in time for the upcoming weekend. With the late week warmth, you would think it will be more wet than white. That’s my initial thought as well but overnight computer models are suggesting this needs to be watched. We could once again be near a critical rain/snow line. The next system will be different from the past one in that a coastal storm looks to form and provide us with much more precipitation. Something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.
The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Saturday for the entire western New Jersey area.
Here are the details of the advisory:
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton- Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie 337 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Berks County, the Lehigh Valley, and adjacent portions of northern and northwest New Jersey. * WHEN...From 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday. The heaviest snow will likely occur from mid to late afternoon. Snow may mix with sleet or rain by early Saturday evening before tapering off overnight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling.
The NWS snow forecast graphic above has scaled back a little the higher snow amounts due to 1) warmer air arriving to mix the snow with sleet and rain and 2) limited amount of time snow will be falling
My forecast is 2-4″ for the I-78 corridor with amounts closer to the low end. Higher amounts will be further to the north and west where the mix/changeover will take longer.
The National Weather Service (NWS) released its initial snow accumulation map for the Saturday system. After looking at model trends today and other data, I’m in agreement with this map. I’m expecting 2-4″ in our area with higher amounts to the far north and west.
There will be plenty of warm air moving in with this system – so much so that it could actually end as some light rain or drizzle. I expect the snow to start midday Saturday. At some point, it will transition to a mix with sleet from south to north. If, when and where this happens will be studied in the days ahead.
The thought of snow is still hard to believe for many after this past weekend’s unusual warmth. Even today was a mostly sunny day with high temperatures in the low 50’s. But it’s not unusual to receive an accumulating snowfall after so much warmth. Besides, it’s mid-January.
The headline above is our upcoming weather pattern. Today will be another yucky cloudy day. Unlike yesterday we should see a few showers from time to time. Nothing too much but showers none the less.
Tomorrow, Wednesday is the day to take advantage of. We should have mostly sunny skies in western New Jersey area with temperatures getting into the 50’s. Get outside and do what you can if possible. Sure it’s no 60’s that we saw over the weekend but this will be the last time we see warmth like this for a while.
Late Wednesday night a strong cold front will move through our area and that will give us windy weather on Thursday with falling temperatures. Friday will be our prepare day for the weekend storm which is still on track. While I’m still seeing this as a moderate only storm, don’t leave your grocery shopping until Friday unless you like to witness people grabbing french toast supplies haphazardously in the supermarket.
The arrival of the snow appears to be Saturday morning at this point. Friday night looks ok for now. Expect to see the snow arrive by mid-morning.
I’ll post more about potential accumulation from this storm in the days ahead. Based on the graphic above it still has the potential of 3-6″ with more to the north and west.
Gone is the weekend warmth. Believe it or not, today is still above normal temperature-wise by mid-January standards.
Computer models today continued the trend of keeping a storm to impact our area late Friday night into Saturday. Today’s trends keep cold air in our area a little longer. It still looks like snow to mix to ultimately rain event but there could be enough snow on the front end to make it notable.
The above graphic show the probability of seeing over 0.25″ of liquid equivalent between Saturday morning and Sunday morning. If all of this fell as snow, this would roughly amount to 2-4″
We’ll continue to keep an eye on this as the weekend approaches.
This afternoon with some sunshine and thankfully no more strong winds itself makes it feel much more comfortable outside
And the trend will continue. Friday will feature high temperatures in the upper 40’s to near 50. Saturday near 60! The downside is there will be more clouds than sun, but warmth is warmth. If it’s not going to snow, let us all be comfortable at least and enjoy some outdoor activities.
Signs continue to suggest the pattern change will start the last week of the month. As of right now nothing overly cold, just more seasonal for starters.
Any early morning sunshine today will be replaced with increasing and thickening clouds. Light snow should break out in southern areas by mid to late afternoon. If the precipitation arrives early enough it could even fall as light rain initially.
As seen in the map above, most of the snowfall should be in southern locations primarily south of I-78. Snow should be over just after midnight and long gone by tomorrow’s AM rush.
Wednesday will be a blustery and chilly day as colder air gets blown into our area as the storm departs. There could even be a snow shower or two at times but nothing important. Thursday is the transition day before we start another impressive warm-up for the weekend.
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