Freezing Rain Advisory Until 11am

26. December 2016 · Comments Off on Freezing Rain Advisory Until 11am · Categories: winter · Tags: , ,

The National Weather Service has issued a freezing rain advisory for this morning until 11 am for Warren county and further to the north. Hunterdon is not in the advisory area.

We are right around freezing and some very light rain is moving east from central PA this morning. This is response to some warmer weather that will arrive overnight into Tuesday. I do not expect this to be a big issue. If you are out and about when the rain starts, just be careful if the temperature is not yet above freezing. Then we turn more seasonable the rest of the week.

SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN
340 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A LIGHT GLAZE IS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD  DEVELOP THIS MORNING... THEN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS  TEMPERATURES
  SLOWLY RISE.

* IMPACTS...ICING MAY CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON  UNTREATED SURFACES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE  30S THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

 

Freezing Rain Advisory Early Saturday Morning

23. December 2016 · Comments Off on Freezing Rain Advisory Early Saturday Morning · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

 

Freezing Rain Advisory early Saturday morning

Freezing Rain Advisory early Saturday morning

The National Weather Service has issued a freezing rain advisory early Saturday morning. This is basically for the wee hours of Saturday morning starting from 1 am and should be well over by 9 am.

I don’t expect most areas in the south and central section of western New Jersey to see much if any freezing rain. In colder sections and deeper valley further to the north the rain may start out as a little freezing rain.

With many people traveling and visiting for the holidays it’s better to be safe than sorry.

We can expect rain to be over around mid day and for most areas of western New Jersey to receive about 1/4″ to 1/2″ of much needed rain. Of course no one wants to see rain on Christmas Eve but it should be well over before holiday services later in the day and evening.

Here is the advisory:

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ060>062-105-241100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.ZR.Y.0004.161224T0600Z-161224T1400Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
315 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 1 OR 2 AM, BECOMING HEAVIER BY 6 OR 7 AM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO
  PLAIN RAIN EVERYWHERE BY 9 AM.

* IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
  FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY 9 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

 

Winter Solstice

20. December 2016 · Comments Off on Winter Solstice · Categories: winter · Tags: ,

Good news is we will slowly start getting more daylight!

Calmer Pattern Ahead

19. December 2016 · Comments Off on Calmer Pattern Ahead · Categories: weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

We are entering a calmer pattern compared to recent. I expect this to last for the remainder of the year for the most part.

Look for much colder weather today with a slight moderation tomorrow. Wednesday, the first official day of Winter, will start a return to more seasonable temperatures with highs in the low 40’s.

The next chance of precipitation looks to be some rain or wet snow showers on Thursday. Then after that not until Christmas night. So travel and shopping weather looks to cooperate for the most part.

So as of right now it looks like we will have a green instead of a white Christmas this year.

Rain Then Sharply Colder

18. December 2016 · Comments Off on Rain Then Sharply Colder · Categories: precipitation, winter · Tags: ,

Rain heading east

A large area of rain is heading towards western New Jersey. I for one don’t mind as I didn’t completely shovel my driveway yesterday after receiving 1″ of snow and sleet. Hopefully the warmer temperatures of today (around 50) combined with the rain will finish the job.

And it’s important you don’t have any snow left in walkways by the end of the day. A strong cold front will cross the area this afternoon and temperatures will come crashing down by evening.

After a cold Monday. look for calmer and more average temperatures mid week.

Freezing Rain Next Several Hours

17. December 2016 · Comments Off on Freezing Rain Next Several Hours · Categories: winter · Tags: ,
What my car looks like only being out in freezing rain for 20 minutes

What my car looks like only being out in freezing rain for 20 minutes

All freezing rain now in Stewartsville and most central and southern areas of western New Jersey. Look for any areas that are still getting sleet to go over to freezing rain shortly.

It’s now a race between the precipitation ending or warmer air arriving to see which gets here first. Let’s hope noon time or before is the ending of either.

Roads are no good so stay in if possible

Back end of precipitation in Harrisburg as of 9am

Back end of precipitation in Harrisburg as of 9am

Frozen Precipitation To Taper Off By Mid Day

17. December 2016 · Comments Off on Frozen Precipitation To Taper Off By Mid Day · Categories: snow, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,
NWS forecast for ice
Snow covered streets in Stewartsville

Snow covered streets in Stewartsville

The snow has already changed over to sleet in most sections of southern western new jersey. Look for all areas to go to sleet and then even freezing rain before ending by mid day.

Stewartsville received 0.8″ of new snow/sleet so far.

NWS forecast for ice

NWS forecast for ice

Untreated roads will be icy this morning so please slow down and take your time until the temperature warms up and the roads and walkways improve

Snow To Rain Late Friday into Saturday Morning

16. December 2016 · Comments Off on Snow To Rain Late Friday into Saturday Morning · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:
NWS forecast on snow for Saturday morning

NWS forecast on snow for Saturday morning

Here is the 3 pm updated snow fall forecast map from the National Weather Service. I’m in total agreement with this map. I’m liking a general 1-3″ accumulation in southern Warren and most of Hunterdon county with slightly more north of there. I expect any frozen precipitation in southern areas to change to rain by mid morning and to all rain even further north in the afternoon.

The rain should let up Saturday afternoon and evening but there could be a shower or some drizzle from time to time. Sunday will briefly see a high temperature in the mid 50’s before the cold front comes through with more rain. This will usher in more seasonable weather with highs in the 30’s Monday.

Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Late Tonight

16. December 2016 · Comments Off on Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Late Tonight · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

I’m looking for the snow to arrive very late tonight, probably after midnight. Total before changeover 1-3″ – more to the north.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT IS IN
EFFECT FROM 1000 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 200 PM SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN   PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING MID
  TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW AND ICE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL  CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...RISING FROM THE 20S INTO THE 30S DURING THE  ADVISORY PERIOD.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY...AND USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT
HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE OR USING TWITTER @NWSMOUNTHOLLY.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THIS EVENT
IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&

 

Initial Thoughts On Friday Night-Saturday Storm

15. December 2016 · Comments Off on Initial Thoughts On Friday Night-Saturday Storm · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,
NWS expected snow totals Friday-Saturday

NWS expected snow totals Friday-Saturday in the map above

I included the current NWS snow forecast for the next storm above even though I do not agree with it 100%.

Friday I expect clouds to increase after a very cold start but I do not expect any snow to fall until after 10 pm. It is very dry out today and will be also tomorrow. There may be times when it is snowing on radar overhead but not reaching the ground.

The next storm will have snow in the beginning then changing over to sleet and eventually rain. This has been a pattern we’ve seen for the last few storms. I expect it to continue with this one and be similar but there should be more moisture to work with.

So how much snow? At this point I’m forecasting a 1-3″ swath for southern Warren, Hunterdon counties with 2-4″ further to the north where the transition to rain will be delayed a little. As of right now I’m leaning towards the higher end of the range.

I do not expect the snow to be steady overnight Friday into Saturday morning. That is one of several reasons why I’m currently going with lower amounts than the map above. Look for snow to mix with and changeover to sleet by or shortly after day break and then to all rain by mid morning-noon.

the rest of Saturday will feature periods of rain that will continue off and on until the cold front passes on Sunday. We should hit 40 for highs Saturday and mid 50’s on Sunday! It will seem like a sauna compared to what we are experiencing now!

More updates as we get closer to the event.

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