Good news is we will slowly start getting more daylight!
We are entering a calmer pattern compared to recent. I expect this to last for the remainder of the year for the most part.
Look for much colder weather today with a slight moderation tomorrow. Wednesday, the first official day of Winter, will start a return to more seasonable temperatures with highs in the low 40’s.
The next chance of precipitation looks to be some rain or wet snow showers on Thursday. Then after that not until Christmas night. So travel and shopping weather looks to cooperate for the most part.
So as of right now it looks like we will have a green instead of a white Christmas this year.
Rain heading east
A large area of rain is heading towards western New Jersey. I for one don’t mind as I didn’t completely shovel my driveway yesterday after receiving 1″ of snow and sleet. Hopefully the warmer temperatures of today (around 50) combined with the rain will finish the job.
And it’s important you don’t have any snow left in walkways by the end of the day. A strong cold front will cross the area this afternoon and temperatures will come crashing down by evening.
After a cold Monday. look for calmer and more average temperatures mid week.
What my car looks like only being out in freezing rain for 20 minutes
All freezing rain now in Stewartsville and most central and southern areas of western New Jersey. Look for any areas that are still getting sleet to go over to freezing rain shortly.
It’s now a race between the precipitation ending or warmer air arriving to see which gets here first. Let’s hope noon time or before is the ending of either.
Roads are no good so stay in if possible
Back end of precipitation in Harrisburg as of 9am
Snow covered streets in Stewartsville
The snow has already changed over to sleet in most sections of southern western new jersey. Look for all areas to go to sleet and then even freezing rain before ending by mid day.
Stewartsville received 0.8″ of new snow/sleet so far.
NWS forecast for ice
Untreated roads will be icy this morning so please slow down and take your time until the temperature warms up and the roads and walkways improve
NWS forecast on snow for Saturday morning
Here is the 3 pm updated snow fall forecast map from the National Weather Service. I’m in total agreement with this map. I’m liking a general 1-3″ accumulation in southern Warren and most of Hunterdon county with slightly more north of there. I expect any frozen precipitation in southern areas to change to rain by mid morning and to all rain even further north in the afternoon.
The rain should let up Saturday afternoon and evening but there could be a shower or some drizzle from time to time. Sunday will briefly see a high temperature in the mid 50’s before the cold front comes through with more rain. This will usher in more seasonable weather with highs in the 30’s Monday.
I’m looking for the snow to arrive very late tonight, probably after midnight. Total before changeover 1-3″ – more to the north.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 1000 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 200 PM SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...THE SNOW AND ICE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * TEMPERATURES...RISING FROM THE 20S INTO THE 30S DURING THE ADVISORY PERIOD. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY...AND USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE OR USING TWITTER @NWSMOUNTHOLLY. SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THIS EVENT IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER &&
NWS expected snow totals Friday-Saturday in the map above
I included the current NWS snow forecast for the next storm above even though I do not agree with it 100%.
Friday I expect clouds to increase after a very cold start but I do not expect any snow to fall until after 10 pm. It is very dry out today and will be also tomorrow. There may be times when it is snowing on radar overhead but not reaching the ground.
The next storm will have snow in the beginning then changing over to sleet and eventually rain. This has been a pattern we’ve seen for the last few storms. I expect it to continue with this one and be similar but there should be more moisture to work with.
So how much snow? At this point I’m forecasting a 1-3″ swath for southern Warren, Hunterdon counties with 2-4″ further to the north where the transition to rain will be delayed a little. As of right now I’m leaning towards the higher end of the range.
I do not expect the snow to be steady overnight Friday into Saturday morning. That is one of several reasons why I’m currently going with lower amounts than the map above. Look for snow to mix with and changeover to sleet by or shortly after day break and then to all rain by mid morning-noon.
the rest of Saturday will feature periods of rain that will continue off and on until the cold front passes on Sunday. We should hit 40 for highs Saturday and mid 50’s on Sunday! It will seem like a sauna compared to what we are experiencing now!
More updates as we get closer to the event.
Snow showers moving through northern part of western New Jersey
810 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016
.NOW…
Snow showers will impact portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey…particularly the Interstate 80 corridor… through 10 AM. A couple tenths of an inch of snow is possible. If traveling…be prepared for rapidly changing visibilities which may dip to around one-half mile at times. Also maintain a safe following distance…as roads may become slippery.
Winds are also very gust this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph occurred in Stewartsville at 7:10 this morning.
I’ll have some initial thoughts on the Saturday morning storm around mid day today.
Coldest air of the season to arrive tonight
The cold front ushering in very cold air will pass through western New Jersey later today and tonight. You will notice winds picking up a bit and will remain brisk into Friday morning. Expect wind chills near 0 most of Thursday into Friday morning. Winds should hopefully calm down a bit on Friday as the center of the cold dome of high pressure move near us.
We will see an increase in clouds on Friday with snow arriving late at night or early Saturday morning. Early indications look for this to be a snow to mix to rain storm similar to the ones we’ve seen already this early winter. The exception will be we have the potential for several inches of snow before the changeover. Much warmer air will arrive later Saturday and Sunday could be near 50!
More on the snow tomorrow.
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