14. February 2016 · Comments Off on Zero To Snow and Rain on Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , , , ,
Frigid start to Valentine's Day in western new Jersey

Frigid start to Valentine’s Day 2016 in western New Jersey

The official low temperature in Stewartsville was 0 this morning. I’m sure there were several stations further north and west in western New Jersey that were -5 to -10 this morning. Brrr!

NWS "most likely" snow forecast for Monday into Monday night before changeover to ice and rain on Tuesday

NWS “most likely” snow forecast for Monday into Monday night before changeover to ice and rain on Tuesday

We will have another cold night tonight but not as bad as last night. Winds have slacked off and will go calm this evening. For the first part of tonight, look for temperatures to fall sharply. They should start to level off as high thin clouds begin to increase as the result of our next weather maker.

Look for light snow to overspread the western New Jersey area by mid day on Monday. Snow should be light to moderate at time Monday afternoon into the evening. At this time I’m forecasting 1-3″ of snow before a change over to ice and rain. Higher numbers will be to the north and west and less to the south and east.

NWS 7 day forecast for western New Jersey

NWS 7 day forecast for western New Jersey

Believe it or not, even with all this frigid air over our area now we are talking about rain on Tuesday. A storm is expected to move up the coast Monday into Tuesday and either go over us or more likely to our West. That will put western New Jersey on the warm side of the storm. Look for snow Monday evening and overnight to first mix with sleet and freezing rain then change completely over to rain before Tuesday morning. rain on Tuesday could be heavy at times with 1-2″ of rain forecast. This could result in some street and river flooding since the ground is so frozen right now.

Looking longer range we warm up a little by the weekend and that will continue into next week but colder weather looks to return the last week of the month

 

03. February 2016 · Comments Off on Rain Heavy At Times Today · Categories: Flash Floods, snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

7day

Well we are past Groundhog Day. Either way you look at it, winter is half over. The PA rodent thinks we will have an early spring. Hopefully he’s right!

Today we will see periods of rain with a high near 60. Today will also be WINDY with some gust reaching 35-40 mph. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder later in the day. We are expecting 1/2″ to 1″ of rain. The rain should do a number on the 5″ of remaining snow in western New Jersey. It will also add to flooding concerns. Right now as long as we get under 1.5″ of rain we should be OK. Some local streams and creeks will rise but the big rivers look to be OK.

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Speaking of snow cover, the beautiful day yesterday resulted in a nice looking satellite photo of the snow cover in our area. It amazes me how in early February there is no snow on the ground in upstate NY north of NYC and in northern PA!

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But will the melting snow be replenished soon? Computer models are starting to indicate that early next week will be active. The warm weather of today will be replaced with more seasonable weather along with a favorable jet stream for Western New Jersey.

I will try and keep you updated but I will be quite busy the rest of the week into early next week.

22. January 2016 · Comments Off on Details On Weekend Snowstorm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

 

 

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The National Weather Service has upgraded the Winter Storm watch to a Warning which was expected.

Timing: While some light snow or flurries could start before midnight tonight I expect the snow to start around midnight. If you like to look at radar on the internet, you WILL see snow on the radar BEFORE midnight. But it won’t reach the ground. The air mass we are in right now is COLD and DRY. It will take a while for it to “moisten up.”

How much: My forecast for western New Jersey continues at 6-12″ – less to the north and more to the south. Northern areas of western New Jersey could be closer to 3-6″ while southern areas closer to a foot or slightly more. You will not have to go that further south to see a nice increase in snowfall.

How long: Look for the snow to last about 24 hours so it should start to taper off around midnight or the early morning hours of Sunday morning

Winds: Will be noticeable. Closer to the shore they will be very windy with gusts 40-60 mph. In western New Jersey we could see wind gust to 30-40 mph at times. Once we have snow on the ground this will cause snow to blow and drift at times. That combined with snow falling will reduce visibility at times. We probably won’t meet the criteria for a blizzard but will be close at times.

Intensity: Snow rates will vary. There will be times when it will only be snowing lightly. Then there will be times it will be near blizzard like conditions. This storm will have snow in bands that will vary from light to heavy. there *may* even be thunder snow!

Concerns: I’m concerned with the sharp cut off of snow in northern areas. Any change to the storm track will drastically change snow amounts in all areas. We could easily change snow amounts be 6″ in either direction if the storm deviates from the expected track.

Updates: I will post updates today and throughout the weekend on the storm. Besides this blog you can also follow me on twitter: dabour

21. January 2016 · Comments Off on Latest Snow Forecast For Western New Jersey · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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I’m in complete agreement with the above map from the National Weather Service in Mt Holly NJ. It shows less snow to the north and more to the south. A general 6-12″ for western New Jersey area with more to the south and less to the north.

The snow will not start until the pre-dawn hours on saturday morning. So by sun up on Saturday there may only be a coating to an inch or so on the ground. Saturday will be when the storm moves in and intensifies as it does so. It will be breezy as well with temperatures not getting above freezing in western New Jersey.

Today and Friday will be great days to prepare for the storm. Unfortunately I heard supermarkets are already busy and shovels and salt are selling like hot cakes on Sunday morning. This of course is to be expected for a January snow storm – especially the first one.

Look for the snow to not end until the early morning hours on Sunday morning. The winds will remain brisk if not full fledged windy so that will make cleanup all the harder.

You may have heard that eastern NJ and NYC has issued a blizzard watch. Why not here? That’s because they are closer to the coast and the winds will be higher. A blizzard does not mean more snow necessarily – it focuses more on reduced visibility from blowing and drifting snow over several hours. There is also blizzard watch in Washington DC area for the same reasons.

If you have any interests along the coast, there will be coastal flooding. Winds will gust to 40-60 mph. There could be some rain or sleet mixed in at times along the shore.

I will update when I have something to share during the day today and tomorrow and throughout the storm on Saturday (provided power and internet cooperate 😉

20. January 2016 · Comments Off on French Toast Warning In Effect for Saturday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , ,

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All the computer models are in for this morning. Confidence remains high that the area will experience a moderate snow event on Saturday.

Here are some facts for this upcoming storm:

  • There will be a sharp cut off in precipitation on the north side of the storm
  • Higher amounts will fall to the south. Northern section of western New Jersey will be aided by elevation to an extent but more moisture will be present to the south
  • Snow will not start until early Saturday morning before sun up

If I had to put an amount down for western New Jersey I’d say 6-12+ at this point. Less to the north and more to the south and perhaps south-west.

So I expect the grocery stores will start being busy on Thursday and should be crazy and Friday so if you need bread, eggs and milk, plan accordingly!

More updates on Thursday

20. January 2016 · Comments Off on Wednesday Morning Update On Snow · Categories: snow, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Good Wednesday morning in western New Jersey. Today will be not as cold and windy as the last two. High should be in the 30’s and the winds should be lighter. There will be an increase in clouds and we could see some flurries or snow showers overnight. Some areas could receive a coating – others nothing

Then our attention turns to the weekend snow storm. While the morning computer runs are being created an evaluated I wanted to share the following:

  • It now looks like the snow will not start until after midnight on Friday. So Friday day and evening should be fine. In fact there may only be a couple of inches of snow on the ground Saturday morning when you wake up
  • As you can see from the precipitation map above, the bulls eye for this storm is going to be to our southwest. But even with that being said we are still looking at the potential for a good amount of precipitation
  • One of the important computer models we use as a tool to forecast the weather, did return us to a snowy solution last night. As you may recall that model moved the heavy snow south of us but now has us in a moderate snow event.

Once all of the updated models are in and analyzed (mid afternoon) I will post an update. It’s possible at that time the NWS may issue some watches of their own and I may issue a French Toast Warning!

17. January 2016 · Comments Off on Cold Air Returns Then Watching Next Weekend · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

7day

An arctic front will pass through the area today. This will bring in another shot of cold weather that will last well into next week. Monday and Tuesday will be the coldest days. We could even see some flurries or snow showers at time to time with the cold air.

Then our attention turns to next weekend. The long range models have been hinting at a strong storm next weekend. They continue to show the trend today so we need to keep an eye on it. At this time it appears Saturday would be the day and snow would be involved. But its 6 days away and a lot of things can change between now and then. For now its just a heads up. It’s purely coincidental that I put up my snow stakes n the driveway today! 😉 OK it’s not a coincident. I usually put them up with the Christmas decorations but didn’t this year with all the warm weather. So now that I did put them up, that means no storm! lol

11. January 2016 · Comments Off on Cold week Ahead · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , , ,

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Wanted to share the above weather graph from my home weather station in Stewartsville, NJ. Notice the impressive and steady temperature drop from early afternoon which is constant to right now! You can clearly see from the temperature (top) and the pressure (bottom) when the cold front came through. Of course many people in western New Jersey could also see and hear when the cold front came through yesterday! Not only were there impressive clouds and heavy rain squalls but thunder and lightning in some spots too! Quite impressive for January!

7day

A reinforcement of cold air is going to arrive on Tuesday courtesy of a fast moving storm system called a “clipper.” We will see flurries and even some snow showers in western New Jersey tomorrow into tomorrow night. It’s not out of the question that some locations could receive a dusting of snow by Wednesday morning. This is more likely to the north and west but could happen anywhere!

There will be a slight warm up by end of week followed by another storm late weekend into next week then more cold air.

10. January 2016 · Comments Off on Rainy Sunday Followed By Cold · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Rainy Sunday morning across western New Jersey this Sunday morning. Good news is it’s warm outside and the steady rain is already over. But there will be showers on and off for the next several hours. Most areas have received about 1″ of rain – some areas more. Stewartsville so far received 0.89″ of rain.

7day

Colder air arrives for the work week as has been advertised before. Daytime highs will be in the 30’s. A fast moving clipper system will visit western New Jersey Tuesday afternoon and evening that will not only usher in another arctic cold front but some light snow. Look for a possible dusting in some areas. More on that as we get closer.

As we look long range there could be a slight warm up by end of next week but a storm is possible around next weekend and even another one after that. Remember: it’s is mid January!

09. January 2016 · Comments Off on Warm with Rain then Arctic Cold #2 · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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Rain will be moving into western New Jersey after midnight tonight and last to around mid-day Sunday. Winds will pick up and rain could be heavy at times. Winds will remain brisk on Sunday after the rain ends. Temperatures will start to drop and will reach the 30’s by Monday morning. Temperatures should stay in the 30’s during the day for all of next week.

Another arctic front will move through western New Jersey on Tuesday that will give us a period of light snow that may whiten the ground in some areas! More on that as it gets closer.

For now enjoy the near record warmth again on Sunday but keep the winter coats handy!

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