Freezing Rain Advisory Early Saturday Morning

23. December 2016 · Comments Off on Freezing Rain Advisory Early Saturday Morning · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

 

Freezing Rain Advisory early Saturday morning

Freezing Rain Advisory early Saturday morning

The National Weather Service has issued a freezing rain advisory early Saturday morning. This is basically for the wee hours of Saturday morning starting from 1 am and should be well over by 9 am.

I don’t expect most areas in the south and central section of western New Jersey to see much if any freezing rain. In colder sections and deeper valley further to the north the rain may start out as a little freezing rain.

With many people traveling and visiting for the holidays it’s better to be safe than sorry.

We can expect rain to be over around mid day and for most areas of western New Jersey to receive about 1/4″ to 1/2″ of much needed rain. Of course no one wants to see rain on Christmas Eve but it should be well over before holiday services later in the day and evening.

Here is the advisory:

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ060>062-105-241100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.ZR.Y.0004.161224T0600Z-161224T1400Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
315 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 1 OR 2 AM, BECOMING HEAVIER BY 6 OR 7 AM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO
  PLAIN RAIN EVERYWHERE BY 9 AM.

* IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
  FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY 9 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

 

Frozen Precipitation To Taper Off By Mid Day

17. December 2016 · Comments Off on Frozen Precipitation To Taper Off By Mid Day · Categories: snow, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,
NWS forecast for ice
Snow covered streets in Stewartsville

Snow covered streets in Stewartsville

The snow has already changed over to sleet in most sections of southern western new jersey. Look for all areas to go to sleet and then even freezing rain before ending by mid day.

Stewartsville received 0.8″ of new snow/sleet so far.

NWS forecast for ice

NWS forecast for ice

Untreated roads will be icy this morning so please slow down and take your time until the temperature warms up and the roads and walkways improve

The Week Ahead

12. December 2016 · Comments Off on The Week Ahead · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:
Snow Sunday falls on a Christmas Wreath For Sale

Snow Sunday falls on a Christmas Wreath For Sale

The storm from yesterday into this morning behaved pretty much as I expected. Stewartsville received about 2/10″ yesterday late afternoon and early evening and another 2/10″ overnight before changing to rain. I’ve seen reports of a few inches further to the north.

Roads were quite slippery late yesterday afternoon and early evening before crews could get to treat them.

Today will be the warmest day by far with high temperatures expected in the mid 40’s. So if you have anything outside to do, I recommend doing it today. There could be some snow showers late in the day or evening on Tuesday but the bulk of this should stay to our south.

Then the coldest air of the season arrives later Wednesday to make Thursday and Friday feel downright frigid. Temperatures those days will not not get out of the 20’s and overnight lows could fall into the single digits!

But don’t fret too much. It doesn’t look like this colder and colder pattern should continue. There are signs of a little moderation around the week before Christmas that could last until the new year. But that’s a way off so until then find your winter jacket!

Storm Analysis Tonight Into Monday Morning

11. December 2016 · Comments Off on Storm Analysis Tonight Into Monday Morning · Categories: precipitation, snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

Well it finally looks and feels like December! Here are some reasons this will NOT be a big snow producer for western New Jersey:

1. A warm front is approaching the area. This means once the front passes, we will get warm and the frozen precipitation will turn to rain eventually
2. The main storm system is going to go to our north and west, meaning we will be on the “warm” side of the storm
3. There is no cold high pressure to our north pumping in colder air

NWS expected snow fall

NWS expected snow fall

With the above in mind this is what will happen in western New Jersey. Periods of light snow will overspread the area this afternoon. This could start as early as mid day in some part of the area but most of that should stay to our west. We could see a coating on the ground from this.

Then there will be a break in the precipitation until the storm get closer to our area. The precipitation should resume mid to late evening and continue overnight.

I expect light snow to mix with sleet and freezing rain before eventually changing to plain rain by Monday morning. This transition will happen faster in southern and lower elevation areas. Areas further north and more elevated areas will see the transition take longer.

In southern warren county, central and southern hunterdon counties I expect a coating to 1″ of snow before changing over to mix then rain. North of that area up to and perhaps just a little bit further north of I-80 I can see 1-3″ of light snow. North of that has the potential for 3-6″ before the changeover.

There could be some light ice buildup during the changeover period so be aware of that.

The Monday morning commute will need some extra travel time so please allow for it.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather advisory starting at 1 pm today lasting into tomorrow.

Hot Weekend Ahead

21. July 2016 · Comments Off on Hot Weekend Ahead · Categories: Summer, thunderstorms, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: ,
7 day weather forecast for western new jersey

7 day weather forecast for western new jersey

And no I’m not talking about my social calendar. Both days will feature mid 90’s and plenty of humidity. Sunday there may be some scattered afternoon thunderstorms but Saturday just looks hot at this point.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
  90S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
  THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

* OUTLOOK...MONDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE JUST AS HOT AS SATURDAY
  AND SUNDAY. THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS WE GET CLOSER.

* IMPACTS...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
  THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED HEALTH ISSUES WILL BE HIGH...
  ESPECIALLY FOR THE ELDERLY AND FOR THOSE IN POOR HEALTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN
WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY
IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP
ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

336 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.

Winter Weather Advisory Tuesday

23. February 2016 · Comments Off on Winter Weather Advisory Tuesday · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

7day

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory (below) for western New Jersey for this afternoon and overnight. The first round of precipitation is arriving with the air, mostly aloft, cold enough for wintry weather.

I’m not expecting too much with this system, especially in southern areas, as the air temperature will be above freezing most of the time. Look for a slushy accumulation mostly on non paved and non treated surfaces. Slightly more could accumulate further to the north.

Later on Wednesday into early Thursday morning look for more important rain and windy conditions then colder as we go into the weekend.

 

WARREN-MORRIS-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
332 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO AN INCH.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A LIGHT GLAZE.

* TIMING...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON,
  THEN IT WILL MIX WITH SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO AREAS OF
  FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANY
  LINGERING FREEZING RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
  CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME SLIPPERY DUE TO SOME
  SNOWFALL AND THEN SOME ICING. REMEMBER, BRIDGES AND OTHER
  ELEVATED SURFACES TEND TO ICE UP FIRST.

* TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID 30S TODAY, DROPPING TO AROUND
  32 DEGREES TONIGHT, THEN SLOWLY RISING TO NEAR 40 DEGREES DURING
  WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW, SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE, POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT
HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE, OR USING TWITTER @NWS_MOUNTHOLLY.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Southern Areas of Western New Jersey

16. February 2016 · Comments Off on Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Southern Areas of Western New Jersey · Categories: Flash Floods, precipitation, thunderstorms, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: ,

Yes it can happen in February!!

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1229 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ  HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
  GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...
  ATLANTIC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  EAST CENTRAL SALEM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  SOUTHERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  EASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 115 PM EST

* AT 1228 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
  MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
  ROYERSFORD TO ELMER TO NEAR LAUREL LAKE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 75
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PHILADELPHIA...TRENTON...CAMDEN...VINELAND...ATLANTIC CITY...
  MILLVILLE...GLOUCESTER CITY...CUMBERLAND...CHERRY HILL...
  BENSALEM...EVESHAM...MOUNT LAUREL...EWING...NORRISTOWN...CHESTER...
  WILLINGBORO...DEPTFORD...VOORHEES...MEDFORD AND WEST DEPTFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS
WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

Zero To Snow and Rain on Monday

14. February 2016 · Comments Off on Zero To Snow and Rain on Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , , , ,
Frigid start to Valentine's Day in western new Jersey

Frigid start to Valentine’s Day 2016 in western New Jersey

The official low temperature in Stewartsville was 0 this morning. I’m sure there were several stations further north and west in western New Jersey that were -5 to -10 this morning. Brrr!

NWS "most likely" snow forecast for Monday into Monday night before changeover to ice and rain on Tuesday

NWS “most likely” snow forecast for Monday into Monday night before changeover to ice and rain on Tuesday

We will have another cold night tonight but not as bad as last night. Winds have slacked off and will go calm this evening. For the first part of tonight, look for temperatures to fall sharply. They should start to level off as high thin clouds begin to increase as the result of our next weather maker.

Look for light snow to overspread the western New Jersey area by mid day on Monday. Snow should be light to moderate at time Monday afternoon into the evening. At this time I’m forecasting 1-3″ of snow before a change over to ice and rain. Higher numbers will be to the north and west and less to the south and east.

NWS 7 day forecast for western New Jersey

NWS 7 day forecast for western New Jersey

Believe it or not, even with all this frigid air over our area now we are talking about rain on Tuesday. A storm is expected to move up the coast Monday into Tuesday and either go over us or more likely to our West. That will put western New Jersey on the warm side of the storm. Look for snow Monday evening and overnight to first mix with sleet and freezing rain then change completely over to rain before Tuesday morning. rain on Tuesday could be heavy at times with 1-2″ of rain forecast. This could result in some street and river flooding since the ground is so frozen right now.

Looking longer range we warm up a little by the weekend and that will continue into next week but colder weather looks to return the last week of the month

 

Rain Heavy At Times Today

03. February 2016 · Comments Off on Rain Heavy At Times Today · Categories: Flash Floods, snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

7day

Well we are past Groundhog Day. Either way you look at it, winter is half over. The PA rodent thinks we will have an early spring. Hopefully he’s right!

Today we will see periods of rain with a high near 60. Today will also be WINDY with some gust reaching 35-40 mph. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder later in the day. We are expecting 1/2″ to 1″ of rain. The rain should do a number on the 5″ of remaining snow in western New Jersey. It will also add to flooding concerns. Right now as long as we get under 1.5″ of rain we should be OK. Some local streams and creeks will rise but the big rivers look to be OK.

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Speaking of snow cover, the beautiful day yesterday resulted in a nice looking satellite photo of the snow cover in our area. It amazes me how in early February there is no snow on the ground in upstate NY north of NYC and in northern PA!

650x366_02021621_hd26

But will the melting snow be replenished soon? Computer models are starting to indicate that early next week will be active. The warm weather of today will be replaced with more seasonable weather along with a favorable jet stream for Western New Jersey.

I will try and keep you updated but I will be quite busy the rest of the week into early next week.

Details On Weekend Snowstorm

22. January 2016 · Comments Off on Details On Weekend Snowstorm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

 

 

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The National Weather Service has upgraded the Winter Storm watch to a Warning which was expected.

Timing: While some light snow or flurries could start before midnight tonight I expect the snow to start around midnight. If you like to look at radar on the internet, you WILL see snow on the radar BEFORE midnight. But it won’t reach the ground. The air mass we are in right now is COLD and DRY. It will take a while for it to “moisten up.”

How much: My forecast for western New Jersey continues at 6-12″ – less to the north and more to the south. Northern areas of western New Jersey could be closer to 3-6″ while southern areas closer to a foot or slightly more. You will not have to go that further south to see a nice increase in snowfall.

How long: Look for the snow to last about 24 hours so it should start to taper off around midnight or the early morning hours of Sunday morning

Winds: Will be noticeable. Closer to the shore they will be very windy with gusts 40-60 mph. In western New Jersey we could see wind gust to 30-40 mph at times. Once we have snow on the ground this will cause snow to blow and drift at times. That combined with snow falling will reduce visibility at times. We probably won’t meet the criteria for a blizzard but will be close at times.

Intensity: Snow rates will vary. There will be times when it will only be snowing lightly. Then there will be times it will be near blizzard like conditions. This storm will have snow in bands that will vary from light to heavy. there *may* even be thunder snow!

Concerns: I’m concerned with the sharp cut off of snow in northern areas. Any change to the storm track will drastically change snow amounts in all areas. We could easily change snow amounts be 6″ in either direction if the storm deviates from the expected track.

Updates: I will post updates today and throughout the weekend on the storm. Besides this blog you can also follow me on twitter: dabour

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