24. July 2020 · Comments Off on Another Soggy Day · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: ,

Radar this morning shows some scattered mostly light showers in the area.

The above graphic shows 24 hr rain totals as of 7 am. Stewartsville recorded just over 1/2″ of new rain. Eastern sections of central Jersey received a lot of rain overnight.

We have a nearly stationary front over our area today. This front will move very little in the next 12 hours and will basically dissipate.

We will only have marginal chances of any severe weather today. Thankfully our high temperatures today will remain in the 80’s

Saturday will return us to the low 90’s and probably be the first of another heat wave. Dew points on Saturday will be lower than the past few days so it will feel better tomorrow. Higher dew points return on Sunday and Monday so enjoy it while it lasts!

27. June 2020 · Comments Off on Slight Chance of Severe Weather Saturday · Categories: weather discussion
SPC Severe Weather Risk for Saturday

The warm front moved through our area this morning accompanied by some weak rain showers. What’s really disappointing since we are so dry recently is these rain showers looked much more intense in eastern PA as they were approaching our area. They dried up considerably and Stewartsville only received 0.01″ of new rain. 🙁

Saturday morning satellite image

Currently, we have mostly cloudy skies in most of western New Jersey. Our chances of severe weather this afternoon will be increased if we receive more sunlight today to warm up and destabilize the atmosphere. As you can see in the above satellite image, we are mostly cloudy at the moment and look to remain so for the near future. The clearing skies are to our south. I’m starting to think our chances of severe weather, later on, maybe limited to those areas and not us.

Saturday morning radar

A quick look at the regional radar Saturday morning shows two areas of rain that may impact us. The first area, area #1 on the map above, shows light rain which may move into parts of our area in the next hour or so. The second area is what may trigger stronger storms and rain this afternoon.

HRRR Computer Model Guidance for today

One of the short range computer models we use for guidance is bullish on something happening today in our area starting around 2pm.

I’ll update today as conditions warrant and time permits. As always, keep an eye to the sky!

25. June 2020 · Comments Off on One More Beautiful Summer Day Before Humidity Returns · Categories: thunderstorms, weather discussion

The low humidity break continued again on Thursday and was beautiful!

Tomorrow, Friday will give us one more day before a return to heat AND humidity starting on Saturday

ALong with the heat and humidity will be the potential threat for some severe weather. Right now the SPC has our entire area in a slight risk for Saturday. We need to keep an eye on this. It’s rare that this far out the SPC places our area in a risk. There’s the potential we might get upgraded to enhanced.

On Saturday, there look to be two periods or rain. the first will be in the morning as the warm front approaches. Then we should see a break and the sun should return with the humidity. Then a chance of showers and thundershowers later in the day and evening perhaps into the overnight.

11. May 2020 · Comments Off on From Sweatshirts To Shorts · Categories: spring, weather discussion · Tags: ,

As is often the case in Spring and Fall, we get wide temperature swings. This week will be another example of that.

The weekend chill abated somewhat on Sunday with a high temperature in the mid 60’s in western New Jersey (especially southern locations) on Sunday. Monday we’re back in the 50’s with scattered rain shower. The skies should clear later today – that combined with light winds will set us up for the potential for frost in many areas tonight. the is certainly better that the 2 nights of freeze warnings but still important to point out as some have begun their outdoor plantings of sensitive plants.

Wednesday morning also looks below normal but hopefully a few degrees warmer to ward off the frost potential.

Looking ahead we finally will start to see some normal and even slightly above normal temperatures for western New Jersey in the 6-10 and 8-14 day extended forecast. Our first preview of Summer will arrive on Friday with temperatures well into the 70’s along with some humidity and a chance for thundershowers!

09. May 2020 · Comments Off on Freeze Warning Again For Tonight · Categories: weather discussion · Tags:
Freeze Warning Saturday night into Sunday morning

This was not a surprise to me given how cold this air mass is. Hopefully the last one of the cold weather season! It’s generally OK to plan the day after Mother’s Day in this part of the country. I see no other widespread cold weather outbreaks that should impact growing weather. Come thursday we should have highs back in the 60’s with even some 70’s possible on Friday.

Same rules apply as last night: bring in any sensitive plants if you can or cover them up. Turn off your outside water supply lines.

Sunday will be mostly sunny and breezy (but not windy) with high temperatures in the low 60’s.

08. May 2020 · Comments Off on Is It May Or March? · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: ,

Despite what the calendar says, our weather will feel more March like for the next week. Another freeze warning is posted for tonight into Saturday morning.

Before the March chill arrives, we will receive more rain today and tonight. Our area should expect 1/2 to perhaps 3/4″ of rain.

Speaking of March-like weather, don’t be surprised to see some wet snow mixed in at the end of our rainfall later tonight and in showers on Saturday. Gusty winds will make most of Saturday feel like temperatures are in the 30’s instead of the mid to upper 40’s. Normal for this time of year? Sadly it’s 70 degrees. We should come close to that late next week and next weekend.

04. May 2020 · Comments Off on Monday’s Weather Pick Of The Week · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: ,
High temperature forecast for Monday

I hope everyone enjoyed our Summer preview this past weekend. Stewartsville recorded a high temperature of 79 on Sunday!

It will not be as warm today with sunshine giving way to more clouds through the day. A northwesterly wind increases with gusts up to 35 mph. A few brief showers are possible this afternoon in northern NJ and northeast PA. #pawx #njwx

8-14 temperature outlook

I think it’s safe to say you shouldn’t put away your cool weather clothing just yet. Not only does the remainder of this week look to be cooler than normal, the extended weather forecast has more of the same. 🙁

Late this week into next weekend, we could have a few night again with low temperatures in the 30’s. It would not surprise me to see frost and freeze advisories posted for parts of our area since I know many folks have been itchy to jump the gun with warm weather plantings.

Looking longer range the last third of the month should return to normal temperatures if not even a little above normal.

29. April 2020 · Comments Off on Flood Watch Thursday Into Friday · Categories: Flash Floods, weather discussion · Tags:
Flood watch Thursday into Friday

A flood watch is in effect for our entire area for Thursday afternoon into Friday afternoon.

Rainfall forecast Thursday into Friday

Out entire area has the potential to receive 2-3″ of rain between now and Friday afternoon. Right now the heaviest rainfall period looks to be late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening and the overnight hours. Friday should feature scattered showers.

Wind Advisory just to the south and east of our area

While our area is not in the wind advisory issued for areas just to our south and east, we will see gusty winds Thursday.

Right now the weekend has a lot of good potential. temperatures look to be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s and dry most of the time.

23. April 2020 · Comments Off on Another Soaker On the Way · Categories: spring, weather discussion · Tags: ,
Thursday morning radar

First off let’s talk about the sleet and perhaps light snow that is falling in some areas this morning. Warmer air is moving over our area and that’s causing some light sleet to fall in some areas this morning. It shouldn’t last too long or amount to much. Temperatures are well above freezing in the mid to upper 30’s.

Rain forecast Thu night into Friday

We will remain cloudy today as we wait for the rain to arrive. It should begin raining late afternoon or early evening. Look for periods of rain continuing overnight through most of Friday. While it won’t be raining all the time, there could be heavier periods of rain. No severe weather is anticipated. Look for around 1″ of rain region wide.

After we dry out Friday evening Saturday may turn out to be not too shabby of a day. After that we return to cool and soggy weather Sunday into Monday. then a break Tuesday with more rain to return Tuesday night into Wednesday. What do they say about April showers?

14. April 2020 · Comments Off on Drier, Cooler Tuesday · Categories: spring, weather discussion
Wind blown spring flowers in Monday afternoon

Stewartsville received about 1.5″ of rain yesterday. Of course, the big story was the wind. 41 mph gust in Stewartsville.

Monday max wind gusts for northern NJ
NJ max wind gusts Monday
Northern NJ rain total Monday
NJ statewide rain totals from Monday

Besides the rain and the wind we also had a tornado watch up on Monday. That’s something that doesn’t happen too often. Luckily, no tornadoes were reported. There were some warnings just to our south in Delaware and Virginia.

7 Day forecast for western NJ

Looking at the rest of the week cooler temperatures with light periods of rain from time to tome. Believe it or not you may even see some conversational wet snow mixed in northern sections during the colder periods. Let’s hope warmer weather returns next week to make it easier to enjoy the outdoors when we need it most!

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