01. July 2017 · Comments Off on Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon · Categories: Summer, thunderstorms · Tags:
strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in western New Jersey

strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in western New Jersey

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of western New Jersey in a slight risk area for thunderstorms today. The greatest threat will be this afternoon from 4-8 pm.

Those in eastern PA yesterday were treated to quite a light show last night. I was driving back home to western New Jersey around 8:30-pm and there was so much cloud to cloud lightening it was spectacular!

24. June 2017 · Comments Off on Heavy Rain Overnight · Categories: Flash Floods, precipitation, Summer · Tags:
Heavy rain overnight in Stewartsville NJ 2.68" LKC-001

Heavy rain overnight in Stewartsville NJ 2.68″ LKC-001

The first round of rain came around 5-6pm resulting in nearly 1″ Then we had another batch around 9 pm that gave us about 1/4″ The rest came overnight with probably the highest amounts in the 3-6 am time period.

Above is a graph from my station. It clearly shows the bulk came around 3-4 am!

Here are more photos from yesterday including a faint rainbow.

23. June 2017 · Comments Off on Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 pm · Categories: Summer, thunderstorms · Tags:

A cold front approaching combined with the remnants of Cindi will give western new jersey a chance for some rain and thundershowers for the next 12 hours!

Some storms are already giving warnings in eastern PA and they are heading towards are area.

21. June 2017 · Comments Off on Slight Chance Thundershower Wednesday · Categories: Summer · Tags: ,

First off welcome to Summer! The Summer Solstice arrive just after midnight this morning. Longest day(light) of the year today! If you like warmer weather, welcome to summer. If you don’t like warmer weather, the day(light) will slowly start getting shorter which will lead (eventually) to cooler weather!

There is a slight chance of a thundershower this afternoon. Most areas will not see anything and this will not be widespread.

Tomorrow Thursday should be a nice day with humidity increasing in the afternoon. Friday should be an active day with a cold front approaching the area. At this time Saturday look OK after a few showers in the morning potentially. This all depends on what the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindi does. She is forecast to stay south of our area as the front pushes her south.

19. June 2017 · Comments Off on Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 8 pm Tonight · Categories: Summer, thunderstorms · Tags:

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Connecticut
Western and Central Massachusetts
Northern New Jersey
Eastern New York
Eastern Pennsylvania
Southern Vermont
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1115 AM until
800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include…
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY…Scattered thunderstorms are expected to intensify across
the watch area through the afternoon, with the strongest cells
capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles southeast of
Harrisburg PA to 35 miles northwest of Keene NH. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION…A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.

…Hart

09. September 2016 · Comments Off on Heat Advisory Until Saturday 7pm · Categories: Summer · Tags: ,

The NWS has just issued a heat advisory for southern sections of western New Jersey thru most of the day on Saturday. We will hopefully see some relief from the heat and the humidity starting Sunday afternoon.

Some of the short range computer models are starting to hint there could be scattered thundershowers this afternoon starting as early as 3 pm. Be on the lookout for those if the skies turn stormy. We need all the rain we can get!

3pm Forecast radar HRRR

3 pm Forecast radar HRRR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1208 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...MID SUMMER LIKE HEAT WAVE WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... NEW JERSEY... AND THE DELMARVA
THROUGH SATURDAY...

.THE MID SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RECORD TEMPERATURES LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR
RECORD SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE 90S TOMORROW.

WHILE THE ADVISORY OFFICIALLY ENDS SATURDAY EVENING...IT WILL STILL
BE QUITE WARM ALL OF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT RELIEF NOT
EASILY NOTICED UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.



NJZ009-010-012-013-020-027-100515-
/O.EXB.KPHI.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-160910T2300Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...JACKSON...WHARTON STATE FOREST
1208 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF COASTAL NORTHERN NEW
  JERSEY.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 103 BOTH AFTERNOONS DUE TO TEMPERATURES
  IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

* OUTLOOK...COOLER WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
  ILLNESS ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHO WORK OUTSIDE OR WHO DO NOT HAVE
  AIR CONDITIONING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS...IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.
06. September 2016 · Comments Off on Hermine Tuesday Morning And Hot Week Ahead · Categories: Fall, Summer · Tags: ,

093741W_sm

Hermine continued her westward track in the past day and looks to continue today. There are some scattered very light showers in New Jersey and it’s not out of the question to see a few light showers pop up today. There will be more clouds but sunshine will still be seen.

As previously advertised, we knew Hermine would still be impacting the region today. What impresses me most is IF this storm behaved as originally thought and didn’t go out as far east as it did, just image how much closer it would be today impacting our region!

vis-animated

Above is a satellite loop showing the proximity of the storm.

7day

And now the heat builds. I already had to break down and turn my AC back on. Even thought it not all that humid yet, it will get so especially on Thursday. Look for high temperatures in the upper 80’s to low 90’s for the remainder of the week. I’m sure the back to school kids will really love it 🙁

05. September 2016 · Comments Off on Hermine And The Hot Week Ahead · Categories: Fall, Hurricane, Summer · Tags: ,

093741W_sm

Here’s the Monday late morning update on Hermine. The storm is *finally* retrograding back to the west. But it is too far east to have any *significant* impacts to us here in western New Jersey. We will see more thin high clouds today than yesterday. There may even be more of a breeze than yesterday too. Expect high temperatures on Labor Day to be in the low 80’s. Overall great holiday weather.

Except if you at the shore. The shore will have more clouds today and it will be windy. You shouldn’t go into the warm water more than knee deep due to the rip current potential. And there will be continued beach erosion and some flooding at times of high tide. But it will be a nice enough day to get out and relax and visit shore vendors and enjoy the last day of the extended weekend.

7day

Hermine will take her time departing the area. In her wake will be a return to hot and humid weather. Just what we all wanted to see with school back in session. Expect high temperatures Tuesday-Friday in the upper 80’s the low 90’s on some days. We could start to see some scattered afternoon showers as early as Wednesday but the rain chances increase more as the week wears on. Keep in mind we are very dry and under drought conditions.

04. September 2016 · Comments Off on Hermine Sunday Morning Upgrade · Categories: Fall, Hurricane, Summer · Tags: ,

093741W_sm

At the beginning of Hermine’s landfall she was going further north and west that forecast. Yesterday she decided to stay further east and south. Perhaps it was the strong high pressure to the north. Regardless the storm is further offshore than forecast.

As you can see above, we are not completely off the hook. It is forecast to come back towards the coast a little but this will not be as close as originally thought. We will have no rain from this in western New Jersey. Today will be a partly sunny beautiful day. The Jersey shore will continue to see high waves, beach erosion and tital flooding at times of high tide.

If Hermine does turn back towards the coast, conditions will not be felt until later today in Monday.

vis-animated

01. September 2016 · Comments Off on Tropical Storm Hermine Overnight Update · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags: , , ,
NHC Hermine Overnight Update

NHC Hermine Overnight Update

the overnight computer models along with the National Hurricane Center have adjusted the forecast path for Hermine back to the East. This is not surprising and we will continue to see the forecast models sway back and forth. The storm isn’t even on land yet. Once it is we will have better data to make hopefully better forecasts.

The important thing to keep in mind is the trend. For the last day or two the trend was to have the storm come further north and east. Now we see on 12 hour period that shits it further to the east. Let’s see if this continue or not.

What’s important to note, if the above track verify’s, even though its not as close as the previous track it will impact our weather with some wind and rain on Labor Day weekend.

Another important item to note is the steering currents for this storm get very weak as it gets near our area. Notice how the last two forecast locations on the map above have the circles very close to each other. There is a possibility the storm could stall or become erratic. Again, we need to keep an eye on it and see if the trend continues.

In other news Stewartsville pickup up about 1/3″ of much needed rain overnight. Look for scattered showers this morning giving way to nicer weather and a beautiful Friday!

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