Saturday Snow–Afternoon Update

21. February 2015 · Comments Off on Saturday Snow–Afternoon Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

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Even though most locations have seen snow this afternoon in western new jersey, there are sections further north and west that have seen little. Everyone received a good amount of snow initially. But then a large dry area opened up in northeast PA into northern NJ. This is the result of heavier precipitation falling to our south that what was originally anticipated. This heavier axis of precipitation now looks to be from Washington DC area to SW PA to SW NJ up to NYC area.

The heavier precipitation will slowly move north as the evening progresses. As of 5pm most areas have received about 1” of new snow. Snow ill become heavier this evening. I no longer believe that most areas in western new jersey will received 3-6” of snow. Certainly sections further to the south and east will see those numbers. My revised forecast for snow is 2-4.”

Right now temperatures at the surface have been steady after rising earlier in the day. We have to monitor what the temperature is doing in the mid levels of the atmosphere to see when sleet will start mixing in and whether or not we will go to all rain.

Here We Snow Again

21. February 2015 · Comments Off on Here We Snow Again · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,

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Right on time. Visibility is already less than 1/2 mile with moderate snow if not heavy already.

Saturday Snow Update

21. February 2015 · Comments Off on Saturday Snow Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , ,

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Western New Jersey woke up to partly sunny but cold skies with overnight lows once again below zero. Stewartsville recorded –3.

Enjoy the sun while it lasts. Clouds will quickly increase today and snow will overspread the area from noon to 2 pm. Snow will become heavier from late afternoon into the evening hours.

The big question is how much snow? It will be a race between how long the cold air can hang on while warmer air moves in. I’ve seen countless times before where warm air wins in western new jersey area (especially southern locations). Today I think there will be enough precipitation that will arrive before this happens that will give us a good amount of snow. I’m increasing my forecast range to 3-6.” As you can see in the map above the National Weather Service believes we will see more snow than that. In fact they are forecasting 4-8” with 6-8” being common. Most of western New Jersey is under a Winter Storm Warning. We certainly can see those amounts if the sleet and freezing rain holds off.

The wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain will most likely win out overnight. But precipitation should end early Sunday morning by the time most folks wake up. Sunday looks to be warmer (more seasonable) so enjoy it while it lasts. Another arctic air mass will move in Sunday in Monday that will drop as back into the freezer on Monday. Tuesday morning looks to be another below zero morning at this point.

As far as when to shovel, I recommend making a pass before retiring for the evening if possible. This way you will get most of the snow before it turns to a wintry mix and freezing rain gets into the snow and makes it much heavier. This may start out as a light and fluffy snow but as the storm goes on the snow will become heavier and wetter in nature.

Frigid Friday Forecast

20. February 2015 · Comments Off on Frigid Friday Forecast · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Western New Jersey residence woke up to temperatures below zero again this morning. This is at least the second time this happened this winter season. Stewartsville recorded –3. What struck me the most was how the winds picked up late yesterday afternoon/early evening and made the cold even colder. It goes right through you.

Even with sunshine on Friday we will remain in the teens for high temperatures. Keep in mind our normal high temperature this time of year should be 41 degrees! I think if we hit 41 today people would be taking off their shirts in the street! lol

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The winds overnight will lighten up and allow our low temperature to drop to near zero again. We will also have increasing clouds which will help keep the temperatures from dropping out too much. Saturday will feature snow arriving as early as late morning. It should start off light and intermittent. The steadiest snow will start in mid to late afternoon. Keep in mind the storm responsible for this precipitation is going to our west and as such is bringing up warmer air. The warmer air will not only be at the surface but aloft too. Saturday will see high temperatures increasing as the day goes on – in the upper 20’s. Then sometime on Saturday evening I anticipate sleet and freezing rain to start mixing in with the snow. We will switch entirely to a wintry mix during the late evening or early overnight hours. We may even end up switching completely to rain on Sunday morning as Sunday’s high temperatures will be in the upper 30’s. But I anticipate precipitation (rain) ending early Sunday morning.

All of the snow we will receive should be on the front end of the storm. So how much for western New Jersey? At this time I’m thinking 2-4”. We could get the amounts the NWS is currently thinking in the map above (4-6). But right now I’m holding them down. Historically warmer air aloft always seems to find its way to southern sections of western NJ. This will result in us changing to a wintry mix and that will keep the snow totals down. For sections further to the north, you could see 4-6”

We turn colder on Monday and could even be at or below zero again next Tuesday morning. But at least the kids will have school on Monday – that hasn’t happened in a while given our storm pattern!

Blowing And Drifting Snow

19. February 2015 · Comments Off on Blowing And Drifting Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: , ,

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While returning from photographing a fire call, I was driving through some intense winds which resulted in the recent snow to start blowing around and drifting again. If driving around this evening please be mindful of not only the extreme cold, but blowing and drifting snow.

Another Arctic Blast On the Way To End The week

18. February 2015 · Comments Off on Another Arctic Blast On the Way To End The week · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Residence of western New Jersey woke up this morning to near zero morning lows. Yet another arctic cold front will pass through western New Jersey this evening. There will be snow showers and even some snow squalls that will develop late this afternoon and continue into the early overnight hours. These can result in a coating to 1” of snow.

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Thursday and Friday will feature daytime highs in the mid teens with windy conditions. Friday morning lows are forecasted to be 5 to 10 BELOW zero!

Beyond that things get interesting and not necessarily in a good way. Saturday will see increasing clouds with a chance of snow late in the day and night. Then warmer air will invade the area and we will see the snow changeover to a wintry mix Saturday night into Sunday. In fact its even possible for us to receive plain rain on Sunday! Hard to imagine after all this cold. If this does happen let’s hope its not too much so the snow doesn’t either melt too fast and provide floods.

I’ll keep an eye on this and provide updates as usual.

Snow Totals For Tuesday Morning

16. February 2015 · Comments Off on Snow Totals For Tuesday Morning · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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I’m going to lower my snow total forecast for overnight into Tuesday morning. My reasons are as follows:

1- computer models today have trended a little further south
2- its so cold and dry out there it will take the snow a little longer to reach the ground (and not evaporate)
3- In looking at observations and radar this afternoon, most of the snow that is moving this way looks to be moving more to the east than north east. I’m starting to think this may be the southward trend
4- The NWS only has a winter weather advisory for Hunterdon county and nothing further north and west.

So I’m thinking we are more likely to see 1-3”

What can go wrong? The storm could track further north and put us in heavier snow. And since it is so cold, the snow ratio will be higher. Normally when it’s close to freezing, 0.10” of liquid will equal 1” of snow. But when its colder, this goes up. In fact it goes up more as it gets colder. Right now we could be in the 20:1 ratio area meaning that if only .1” of precip falls, that will give us 2” of snow.

If I see this change drastically later on this evening I’ll update.

Tuesday Snow Forecast

16. February 2015 · Comments Off on Tuesday Snow Forecast · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Western new jersey morning lows did not disappoint this morning. Mn locations were below zero in the single digits. This was the coldest morning of the winter season so far. Will this be it? Or will it be colder Thursday or Friday morning?

Today looks for increasing cloudiness with highs remaining in the teens. Look for light snow to arrive later this evening between 9 and midnight. The snow should continue overnight and end by 9 am. I expect 2-4″ to fall in western new jersey area. More will fall to the SOUTH and slightly less to the north.

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Another arctic front will pass through the area on Wednesday. Right now this looks to be later in the afternoon or evening. Expect snow showers and snow squalls before and during the frontal passage. Good news it shouldn’t be as windy with this system. Then we go back into the freezer and will have sub zero lows anticipated for Friday morning.

Let’s remember these days when the heat and humidity of summer returns!

Arctic Sunday Weather Update

15. February 2015 · Comments Off on Arctic Sunday Weather Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , ,

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I don’t have any good snow photos to share with you yet. I hope to get some today if I can tolerate the snow. Western new jersey picked up about 3” of snow in the last 24 hours. II t came in two parts. First yesterday from mid day until just before dinner time then part 2 was when the snow squalls came around 8-10 pm.

Western new jersey continues under a winter weather advisory and a high wind warning. My weather station gusted to 33 mph around 4:46 am. Expect similar strong gusts today into this evening. The winds will lighten up a little tonight but it will remain windy/breezy overnight as we most likely go below zero Monday morning. Most area today will only see a high temperature in the low to mid teens and by Monday morning lows should be around 5 BELOW zero. Then on Washington’s birthday we are only back in the mid teens as we slowly cloud up late in the day for the next system.

Right now the computer models are not consistent with the next system. It looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday. Some models have most of the snow going to our south but one model has the snow coming up our way. Right now I’m thinking we will see plow able snow from the next storm. More details of course as we get closer.

In closing, stay warm today and check on the elderly!

Average New Jersey Snowfall

14. February 2015 · Comments Off on Average New Jersey Snowfall · Categories: snow · Tags: , ,

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I came across this excellent New Jersey State average Snowfall map that Tom Stavola did. For a year by year breakdown visit his page.

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