February 2021 Snowstorm Wrap-Up

03. February 2021 · Comments Off on February 2021 Snowstorm Wrap-Up · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

Talk about an over-performing snow storm that just would not quit! I was surprised to no only see another 1/2″ of snow this morning from the overnight, be more snow flurries during the day today – the fourth day of snow!

The intense snow fall rates with ultra low visibility and duration of the snow is what I’ll remember most from this storm. 27.3″ fell in Stewartsville.

Snow Totals

Here is a list of snow totals from some nearby counties in NJ and PA:

...Hunterdon County...
Bethlehem Twp                24.0 in   0150 PM 02/02   Public
White House Station          20.9 in   1219 PM 02/02   Trained Spotter
Clinton Twp. 4 N             18.5 in   0800 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
2.5 S Cloverhill             18.0 in   0730 AM 02/03   COOP
Lebanon                      17.2 in   0449 PM 02/02   Public
3 S Cloverhill               17.2 in   0800 AM 02/02   CO-OP Observer
Lebanon 3.2 SW               17.0 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
Flemington                   16.8 in   0630 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter
Readington Twp               16.2 in   0700 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter
Clinton 1.6 ENE              16.0 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
Frenchtown 0.5 N             15.5 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
Flemington 2.3 E             15.4 in   0800 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
2 NNE Three Bridges          14.5 in   0700 AM 02/02   Public
3 W Stanton                  14.4 in   0700 AM 02/02   CO-OP Observer
Lebanon 2.8 N                14.0 in   0730 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
Flemington 3 E               13.3 in   0811 AM 02/03   COOP
4 SE Sand Brook              10.0 in   0900 AM 02/02   Public

Sussex:

…Sussex County…
 Montague                     33.2 in   0709 AM 02/02   Public
 Andover                      32.0 in   1104 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter
 Newton 0.3 W                 32.0 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
 Stanhope                     31.0 in   0200 PM 02/02   Public
 Montague Twp 2.7 WNW         30.9 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
 Sparta                       30.3 in   1000 PM 02/01   Trained Spotter
 Sandyston Twp                30.0 in   0512 PM 02/02   Public
 Sparta Twp 3.3 NW            29.6 in   0800 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
 Newton 0.9 S                 29.5 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
 Sparta Twp 3.6 SSW           29.2 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
 Sussex 1.3 N                 29.2 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
 Byram                        28.0 in   1244 PM 02/02   Public
 Hopatcong                    27.3 in   1015 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter
 1 W Wantage Twp              27.0 in   0940 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter
 Byram Twp                    26.0 in   0626 AM 02/02   Public
 Highland Lakes 1 SW          25.7 in   0600 AM 02/03   COOP
 Andover Twp 1.7 W            25.5 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
 Hardyston Twp                24.0 in   1000 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter
 Vernon                       24.0 in   0640 AM 02/02   Public
 Stockholm                    22.0 in   0739 AM 02/03   Trained Spotter
 Hardyston Twp 3.2 SE         21.9 in   0800 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
 Vernon Twp 1.7 N             21.5 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS
 Stockholm                    20.0 in   0800 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter

Warren

...Warren County... 

Blairstown Twp 2.2 ESE       32.1 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS Oxford                       32.0 in   1123 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter 1 NW Hope                    31.3 in   0211 PM 02/02   Trained Spotter 1 SSE Harmony Twp            31.0 in   0652 PM 02/02   Public 1 SSW Harmony                30.0 in   0530 PM 02/02   Trained Spotter Hackettstown                 28.5 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS Greenwich Twp 1.6 S          27.3 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS Knowlton Twp 1.7 S           27.3 in   0810 AM 02/03   COCORAHS Phillipsburg                 26.8 in   0230 PM 02/02   Public Riegelsville                 26.5 in   0700 AM 02/03   COOP Stewartsville                26.3 in   0700 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter 3 W Holland Twp              25.5 in   1000 AM 02/02   CO-OP Observer Hope                         24.0 in   1130 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter Allamuchy-Panther Valley     23.0 in   0641 PM 02/01   Public Great Meadows                22.3 in   0600 PM 02/02   Public

Pennsylvania - Northampton

...Northampton County... Nazareth                     36.1 in   0437 PM 02/02   Public Forks Twp                    32.6 in   0309 PM 02/02   Trained Spotter Bangor                       30.5 in   0653 PM 02/02   Trained Spotter Roseto                       30.5 in   0529 PM 02/02   Public Lehigh Twp                   30.0 in   0441 PM 02/02   Public North Catasauqua             29.1 in   0530 PM 02/02   Broadcast Media Bushkill Twp                 28.9 in   0457 PM 02/02   Trained Spotter Portland 2.7 WNW             28.3 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS Hellertown                   27.6 in   0445 PM 02/02   Trained Spotter Martins Creek                27.4 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS 2 N Wilson                   27.0 in   0832 PM 02/01   Public Easton                       26.8 in   1020 AM 02/02   Public Bethlehem                    25.0 in   1054 AM 02/02   Public 1 E Pen Argyl                23.8 in   0126 PM 02/02   Trained Spotter Tatamy                       23.0 in   0311 PM 02/02   Public Danielsville                 22.0 in   1000 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter Plainfield Twp               22.0 in   1142 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter Bath                         21.3 in   0915 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter Hanover Twp                  21.1 in   0225 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter Bethlehem 1.8 NW             21.0 in   0800 AM 02/03   COCORAHS 1 NW Riegelsville            21.0 in   0819 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter Palmer Heights               17.6 in   0535 PM 02/01   Trained Spotter Churchville                  10.0 in   0513 PM 02/02   Public ...Philadelphia County... Fox Chase                    10.0 in   0932 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter Philadelphia 4.7 NE          10.0 in   0700 AM 02/03   COCORAHS Manayunk                     9.0 in    1158 AM 02/02 1 NNE Stenton                9.0 in    0926 AM 02/02   Broadcast Media Philadelphia International A 8.1 in    0700 AM 02/03   ASOS Philadelphia                 7.8 in    0108 PM 02/02   Trained Spotter 1 SE Point Breeze            6.9 in    0357 AM 02/02   Trained Spotter

Feels Like Groundhog Day

02. February 2021 · Comments Off on Feels Like Groundhog Day · Categories: snow · Tags: ,
Snow piling up in Stewartsville, NJ

And maybe that’s for good reason: it is Groundhog Day! The weather certainly feels like it. For many this is the third day of cloudy snowy weather!

NWS snowfall forecast from 7 am Tuesday until 7 am Wednesday

Stewartsville picked up another 6″ of snow overnight bringing my total to 22.8″ as of 7 am. Since then light to occasionally moderate snow continues to fall. The NWS graphic above shows another coating to 1″ to fall today. In looking at the current radar that is now bringing a moderate band of snow in the area, we may actually pick up an inch or two more in some spots.

The snow will taper off as the day goes on to just flurries and be out of the area by tonight. We should see a slight warm up in temperatures before colder and perhaps stormier weather returns by the weekend. Now’s probably not a good time to tell you about how cold Monday will be. I’ll leave that to another post 🙂

Snowstorm Continues

01. February 2021 · Comments Off on Snowstorm Continues · Categories: snow · Tags: , ,
Snow continues to pile up in Stewartsville

Needless to say, this snowstorm is overperforming. As of Noon, Stewartsville recorded 10″ of snow. Since then it’s been snowing at the rate of 2-3″ PER HOUR!

NWS radar shows heavy bands of snow

If you are in the blue circled area in the radar snapshot above, you are getting hammered with snow. These bands keep rotating from east to west giving nearly the entire heavy snow with greatly reduced visibilities.

NWS snow forecast updated at 11 am Feb 1, 2021

As a result of the intense bands of snow that are showing little movement, I need to increase my snowfall forecast to 16-24.” There’s even a chance that may not be enough! I expect some areas will approach 30″!

Snowstorm Still On Track

01. February 2021 · Comments Off on Snowstorm Still On Track · Categories: snow · Tags: ,
5.7″ in Stewartsville as of 7 am

Everything is progressing as expected for the most part with the snow storm. The snow did start a little earlier than expected. We also only anticipated 4″ my sunup today and we are at 5.7.” That doesn’t necessarily mean we will get more snow than forecast.

NWS snow forecast

The NWS snow forecast is above. I’m in agreement with it but going slightly less with 10-16.” Why less? Several reasons: 1) sleet was no expected to make it as far north as my location yet it did. 2) sleet holds down snow accumulations 3) typically an earlier start to snow means and earlier end and 4) I could be wrong

Regardless snowfall rates will pick up today and be heavy at times. The wind will also increase and be quite gusty

Saturday Morning Update on Upcoming Snowstorm

30. January 2021 · Comments Off on Saturday Morning Update on Upcoming Snowstorm · Categories: snow · Tags:

Confidence continues to increase that the Sunday night – Tuesday morning snowstorm will be memorable and most likely surpass the December storm. I have a busy Saturday with work and family and will have limited time to study and post so wanted to get something out early.

I believe the red circled area, highlighting the area from the NWS where the potential for greatest snow, will be expanded further north and west. The models typically underplay the amount of snow that falls on the NW side of these storms. Plus the elevation yields more snow typically.

AccuWeather has our area in the 12-18″ area. This is certainly a possibility if we get all the storm has to offer.

The NWS snow forecast map above is only until 7 am Tuesday. While I fell most of the important snow should be received by then, there is certainly the possibility of picking up additional, especially further east.

As of right now I’m going with 6-12″ forecast. I hate to be so vague but with stronger systems like this, snow sets up in bands. If you are under one of those bands for a considerable amount of time, you get a lot of snow. Alternatively, if you remain outside of that area, not as much.

Gather the snow removal equipment and get the snow blower ready if you are fortunate enough to have one!

Early Thoughts On Monday Snow

29. January 2021 · Comments Off on Early Thoughts On Monday Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion · Tags: , , ,

After today’s cold and wind, there’s little doubt that the net round of interesting weather will be a storm early next week. This storm will feature accumulating snow and not be a fast mover.

There are still many factors that need to become better know before a more accurate forecast can be created. The earliest onset of the snow appears to be Sunday evening. Heavier snow will fall on Monday and perhaps into Monday overnight and Tuesday morning.

The European computer model is starting to show the storm moving further south. We need to keep an eye on this guidance to see if this becomes a trend. If it does it could mean less snow for our area. Other guidance suggests more snow for our area.

The above graphic is from the NWS and is only through Monday 7 pm. Based on what we know currently, I think this is a good range. It shows more to the south.

This can and probably will change several times between now and the event so check back for updates.

Update on Tuesday Snow

25. January 2021 · Comments Off on Update on Tuesday Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion · Tags: , ,

Less Snow and More Ice

Updates in the past 24 hours reveal that Tuesday’s system will result in less snow for our area and more mix of sleet and even freezing rain at times.

Timing: Look for light snow to arrive early Tuesday morning. Some areas may not even see anything yet by sunrise Tuesday. Light snow will gradually overspread the area but then start mixing with sleet and freezing rain by lunchtime. This will happen first in southern locations but eventually spread north.

I’m revising my snow forecast to coating to 2″. The 2″ will be in northern locations.

We can also expect a coating of sleet and freezing rain from this system. The map above show how much ice accumulation we can expect.

Looking longer range, snow weather fans will be disappointed. The storm for Thursday appears to stay mostly to our south. The next system for Sunday into Monday may be another snow to mix or rain situation. More details on that as we get closer. For now keep the snow blower covered up…

Light Snow Tuesday

24. January 2021 · Comments Off on Light Snow Tuesday · Categories: snow, weather discussion · Tags: , ,

Details on the wintry weather for late Monday night and Tuesday are coming into focus. I’m expecting 1-3″ for western New Jersey. The lower end will be in southern areas and the upper end further to the north and west. Some sleet can mix in at times on Tuesday.

Timing: Look for light snow to arrive before sun-up on tuesday. the snow will be light and perhaps intermittent at times, especially in the afternoon.

Looking ahead to our next winter weather maker on Thursday, it may be another swing and a miss. This will truly be a storm that will intensify rapidly when it hits the Atlantic ocean. Unfortunately it appears to be south of us with the intensification happening when it gets east of our area. We may see some light snow showers depending on the exact track. Details as we get closer.

Blustery Weekend On The Way

22. January 2021 · Comments Off on Blustery Weekend On The Way · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: , ,

You’ll want to be like Bernie and bundle up this weekend, especially Saturday as temperatures will likely struggle to get to 30. Winds will keep the wind chill in the teens.

Confidence is increasing that our area will see some wintry weather late Monday into Tuesday.

At this time the precipitation type looks to be mainly snow for our area but I can’t yet rule out a changeover or mix with some sleet or freezing rain, especially in southern locations. As it looks now if that happens it will be minor.

Timing wise looks to be later Monday into Tuesday. There’s a good chance the wintry weather will be in two parts. There appears to be a lull in the snow perhaps mid-day Tuesday with perhaps another, lighter round of snow before the day ends.

How much? Still too early to say. I’m thinking this will NOT be as much as the December event. At this time I’m expecting 3-6″ range.

Winter Storm Watch Posted for Wednesday into Thursday morning

13. December 2020 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Watch Posted for Wednesday into Thursday morning · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: , ,

It’s not too often that you see the NWS issue a watch nearly 3 days in advance. Then again the storm that looks to impact our area Wednesday into Thursday morning is no ordinary storm.

First off it’s a busy holiday shopping time of year. And it will be the first major snow storm of not only the season, but in a long time. You remember last winter’s lack of snow, right?

Here’s the watch details:

715 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING…

* WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 12
inches or more possible.

* WHERE…Portions of the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northwest
New Jersey.

* WHEN…From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Heavy snow could have the potential to
cause power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

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