Snow covered streets in Stewartsville
The snow has already changed over to sleet in most sections of southern western new jersey. Look for all areas to go to sleet and then even freezing rain before ending by mid day.
Stewartsville received 0.8″ of new snow/sleet so far.
NWS forecast for ice
Untreated roads will be icy this morning so please slow down and take your time until the temperature warms up and the roads and walkways improve
NWS forecast on snow for Saturday morning
Here is the 3 pm updated snow fall forecast map from the National Weather Service. I’m in total agreement with this map. I’m liking a general 1-3″ accumulation in southern Warren and most of Hunterdon county with slightly more north of there. I expect any frozen precipitation in southern areas to change to rain by mid morning and to all rain even further north in the afternoon.
The rain should let up Saturday afternoon and evening but there could be a shower or some drizzle from time to time. Sunday will briefly see a high temperature in the mid 50’s before the cold front comes through with more rain. This will usher in more seasonable weather with highs in the 30’s Monday.
I’m looking for the snow to arrive very late tonight, probably after midnight. Total before changeover 1-3″ – more to the north.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 1000 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 200 PM SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...THE SNOW AND ICE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * TEMPERATURES...RISING FROM THE 20S INTO THE 30S DURING THE ADVISORY PERIOD. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY...AND USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE OR USING TWITTER @NWSMOUNTHOLLY. SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THIS EVENT IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER &&
NWS expected snow totals Friday-Saturday in the map above
I included the current NWS snow forecast for the next storm above even though I do not agree with it 100%.
Friday I expect clouds to increase after a very cold start but I do not expect any snow to fall until after 10 pm. It is very dry out today and will be also tomorrow. There may be times when it is snowing on radar overhead but not reaching the ground.
The next storm will have snow in the beginning then changing over to sleet and eventually rain. This has been a pattern we’ve seen for the last few storms. I expect it to continue with this one and be similar but there should be more moisture to work with.
So how much snow? At this point I’m forecasting a 1-3″ swath for southern Warren, Hunterdon counties with 2-4″ further to the north where the transition to rain will be delayed a little. As of right now I’m leaning towards the higher end of the range.
I do not expect the snow to be steady overnight Friday into Saturday morning. That is one of several reasons why I’m currently going with lower amounts than the map above. Look for snow to mix with and changeover to sleet by or shortly after day break and then to all rain by mid morning-noon.
the rest of Saturday will feature periods of rain that will continue off and on until the cold front passes on Sunday. We should hit 40 for highs Saturday and mid 50’s on Sunday! It will seem like a sauna compared to what we are experiencing now!
More updates as we get closer to the event.
Snow showers moving through northern part of western New Jersey
810 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016
.NOW…
Snow showers will impact portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey…particularly the Interstate 80 corridor… through 10 AM. A couple tenths of an inch of snow is possible. If traveling…be prepared for rapidly changing visibilities which may dip to around one-half mile at times. Also maintain a safe following distance…as roads may become slippery.
Winds are also very gust this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph occurred in Stewartsville at 7:10 this morning.
I’ll have some initial thoughts on the Saturday morning storm around mid day today.
Radar 20161213 16:00
I posted a wide shot of the current radar (16:00 Tuesday) to show the light snow. It is setting up in a NE to SW line. Most of this light snow should stay to northern and western areas. The whole line will slowly move to the east as the evening progresses. I still expect this to be just a dusting for our area. Areas further to the north and west could see a coating to 1″ of snow towards the Poconos.
Light snow approaching from the SW
If you have any outdoor chores to do today is the day. There is some very light snow or flurries approaching from the SW. Look for them to arrive late afternoon into the early evening. It shouldn’t amount to too much but some areas may receive a dusting.
Wednesday will be a transition day as the next front will move through later in the day and into the evening ushering in the coldest air of the season. More details on that tomorrow…
Snow Sunday falls on a Christmas Wreath For Sale
The storm from yesterday into this morning behaved pretty much as I expected. Stewartsville received about 2/10″ yesterday late afternoon and early evening and another 2/10″ overnight before changing to rain. I’ve seen reports of a few inches further to the north.
Roads were quite slippery late yesterday afternoon and early evening before crews could get to treat them.
Today will be the warmest day by far with high temperatures expected in the mid 40’s. So if you have anything outside to do, I recommend doing it today. There could be some snow showers late in the day or evening on Tuesday but the bulk of this should stay to our south.
Then the coldest air of the season arrives later Wednesday to make Thursday and Friday feel downright frigid. Temperatures those days will not not get out of the 20’s and overnight lows could fall into the single digits!
But don’t fret too much. It doesn’t look like this colder and colder pattern should continue. There are signs of a little moderation around the week before Christmas that could last until the new year. But that’s a way off so until then find your winter jacket!
Well it finally looks and feels like December! Here are some reasons this will NOT be a big snow producer for western New Jersey:
1. A warm front is approaching the area. This means once the front passes, we will get warm and the frozen precipitation will turn to rain eventually
2. The main storm system is going to go to our north and west, meaning we will be on the “warm” side of the storm
3. There is no cold high pressure to our north pumping in colder air
NWS expected snow fall
With the above in mind this is what will happen in western New Jersey. Periods of light snow will overspread the area this afternoon. This could start as early as mid day in some part of the area but most of that should stay to our west. We could see a coating on the ground from this.
Then there will be a break in the precipitation until the storm get closer to our area. The precipitation should resume mid to late evening and continue overnight.
I expect light snow to mix with sleet and freezing rain before eventually changing to plain rain by Monday morning. This transition will happen faster in southern and lower elevation areas. Areas further north and more elevated areas will see the transition take longer.
In southern warren county, central and southern hunterdon counties I expect a coating to 1″ of snow before changing over to mix then rain. North of that area up to and perhaps just a little bit further north of I-80 I can see 1-3″ of light snow. North of that has the potential for 3-6″ before the changeover.
There could be some light ice buildup during the changeover period so be aware of that.
The Monday morning commute will need some extra travel time so please allow for it.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather advisory starting at 1 pm today lasting into tomorrow.
Look for sun to give way to increasing clouds on Tuesday in western New Jersey. Precipitation should arrive before the evening rush hour. I expect this system to be primarily a rain event along the I-78 corridor. Further to the north, there will be colder air and there could be some sleet and wet snow mixed in at the beginning of the storm.
The above snow forecast map from the Nation Weather Service, only has measurable snow around and north of I-80.
We need to keep an eye on how much cold air get drawn into this system. There are some computer models that are suggesting more wintry weather may happen for a little while further to the south, especially in the beginning. I’ll keep an eye on this tomorrow and will post updates as appropriate.
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