Another Snow To Rain on Thursday

28. December 2016 · Comments Off on Another Snow To Rain on Thursday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

As has been the pattern with storms so far this cold season, we will get another snow to rain event on Thursday. Look for light snow to overspread western New Jersey around rush hour time – certainly by mid morning. Then, as has been the case this year, the snow will start mixing with and then change to rain. The difference this time I don’t expect much in the way of sleet or freezing rain. There is not a lot of colder air near the surface.

As far as accumulation I expect a coating to 1″ for most areas of southern Warren and Hunterdon counties with a little bit more further to the north as well as in the Poconos.

This will turn into a very big storm – for northeastern New England. Some areas will receive over a foot of snow from this storm!

Much colder air will usher in as the storm passes. Friday will be quite windy and there could be some snow squalls.

The next event to keep an eye on in New Years Eve into New Years Day. More on that as we get closer.

 

First Thoughts on Thursday Snow Potential

27. December 2016 · Comments Off on First Thoughts on Thursday Snow Potential · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,

My initial thoughts a few days ago for late Wednesday into Thursday was another wet snow to rain event for western New Jersey. The interesting part this time is the computer models have been trending slightly colder with each new run. If this continues we could see a minor wet snow accumulation.

The above map is from the NWS and shows the most likely snowfall for our area for Thursday. At this point I’m in agreement with this as it shows 1-2″ in most locations of western New Jersey. There is the potential for a few more inches, especially up north.

Today’s rain showers should be over my mid day and some sunshine should return. It will be a very mild day by late December standards. It will turn colder tomorrow but nothing too severe.

After the late Wednesday night/Thursday event there is another possibility of mixed precipitation unfortunately on New Year’s Eve. More on that as we get closer.

Frozen Precipitation To Taper Off By Mid Day

17. December 2016 · Comments Off on Frozen Precipitation To Taper Off By Mid Day · Categories: snow, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,
NWS forecast for ice
Snow covered streets in Stewartsville

Snow covered streets in Stewartsville

The snow has already changed over to sleet in most sections of southern western new jersey. Look for all areas to go to sleet and then even freezing rain before ending by mid day.

Stewartsville received 0.8″ of new snow/sleet so far.

NWS forecast for ice

NWS forecast for ice

Untreated roads will be icy this morning so please slow down and take your time until the temperature warms up and the roads and walkways improve

Snow To Rain Late Friday into Saturday Morning

16. December 2016 · Comments Off on Snow To Rain Late Friday into Saturday Morning · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:
NWS forecast on snow for Saturday morning

NWS forecast on snow for Saturday morning

Here is the 3 pm updated snow fall forecast map from the National Weather Service. I’m in total agreement with this map. I’m liking a general 1-3″ accumulation in southern Warren and most of Hunterdon county with slightly more north of there. I expect any frozen precipitation in southern areas to change to rain by mid morning and to all rain even further north in the afternoon.

The rain should let up Saturday afternoon and evening but there could be a shower or some drizzle from time to time. Sunday will briefly see a high temperature in the mid 50’s before the cold front comes through with more rain. This will usher in more seasonable weather with highs in the 30’s Monday.

Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Late Tonight

16. December 2016 · Comments Off on Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Late Tonight · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

I’m looking for the snow to arrive very late tonight, probably after midnight. Total before changeover 1-3″ – more to the north.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT IS IN
EFFECT FROM 1000 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 200 PM SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN   PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING MID
  TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW AND ICE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL  CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...RISING FROM THE 20S INTO THE 30S DURING THE  ADVISORY PERIOD.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY...AND USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT
HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE OR USING TWITTER @NWSMOUNTHOLLY.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THIS EVENT
IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&

 

Initial Thoughts On Friday Night-Saturday Storm

15. December 2016 · Comments Off on Initial Thoughts On Friday Night-Saturday Storm · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,
NWS expected snow totals Friday-Saturday

NWS expected snow totals Friday-Saturday in the map above

I included the current NWS snow forecast for the next storm above even though I do not agree with it 100%.

Friday I expect clouds to increase after a very cold start but I do not expect any snow to fall until after 10 pm. It is very dry out today and will be also tomorrow. There may be times when it is snowing on radar overhead but not reaching the ground.

The next storm will have snow in the beginning then changing over to sleet and eventually rain. This has been a pattern we’ve seen for the last few storms. I expect it to continue with this one and be similar but there should be more moisture to work with.

So how much snow? At this point I’m forecasting a 1-3″ swath for southern Warren, Hunterdon counties with 2-4″ further to the north where the transition to rain will be delayed a little. As of right now I’m leaning towards the higher end of the range.

I do not expect the snow to be steady overnight Friday into Saturday morning. That is one of several reasons why I’m currently going with lower amounts than the map above. Look for snow to mix with and changeover to sleet by or shortly after day break and then to all rain by mid morning-noon.

the rest of Saturday will feature periods of rain that will continue off and on until the cold front passes on Sunday. We should hit 40 for highs Saturday and mid 50’s on Sunday! It will seem like a sauna compared to what we are experiencing now!

More updates as we get closer to the event.

Scattered Snow Showers Today and Tomorrow

15. December 2016 · Comments Off on Scattered Snow Showers Today and Tomorrow · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:
Snow showers moving through northern part of western New Jersey

Snow showers moving through northern part of western New Jersey

810 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016

.NOW…
Snow showers will impact portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey…particularly the Interstate 80 corridor… through 10 AM. A couple tenths of an inch of snow is possible. If traveling…be prepared for rapidly changing visibilities which may dip to around one-half mile at times. Also maintain a safe following distance…as roads may become slippery.

Winds are also very gust this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph occurred in Stewartsville at 7:10 this morning.

I’ll have some initial thoughts on the Saturday morning storm around mid day today.

Update On Light Snow For Today

13. December 2016 · Comments Off on Update On Light Snow For Today · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

Radar 20161213 16:00

I posted a wide shot of the current radar (16:00 Tuesday) to show the light snow. It is setting up in a NE to SW line. Most of this light snow should stay to northern and western areas. The whole line will slowly move to the east as the evening progresses. I still expect this to be just a dusting for our area. Areas further to the north and west could see a coating to 1″ of snow towards the Poconos.

Calm Before The Cold

13. December 2016 · Comments Off on Calm Before The Cold · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: , ,
Light snow approaching from the SW

Light snow approaching from the SW

If you have any outdoor chores to do today is the day. There is some very light snow or flurries approaching from the SW. Look for them to arrive late afternoon into the early evening. It shouldn’t amount to too much but some areas may receive a dusting.

Wednesday will be a transition day as the next front will move through later in the day and into the evening ushering in the coldest air of the season. More details on that tomorrow…

The Week Ahead

12. December 2016 · Comments Off on The Week Ahead · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:
Snow Sunday falls on a Christmas Wreath For Sale

Snow Sunday falls on a Christmas Wreath For Sale

The storm from yesterday into this morning behaved pretty much as I expected. Stewartsville received about 2/10″ yesterday late afternoon and early evening and another 2/10″ overnight before changing to rain. I’ve seen reports of a few inches further to the north.

Roads were quite slippery late yesterday afternoon and early evening before crews could get to treat them.

Today will be the warmest day by far with high temperatures expected in the mid 40’s. So if you have anything outside to do, I recommend doing it today. There could be some snow showers late in the day or evening on Tuesday but the bulk of this should stay to our south.

Then the coldest air of the season arrives later Wednesday to make Thursday and Friday feel downright frigid. Temperatures those days will not not get out of the 20’s and overnight lows could fall into the single digits!

But don’t fret too much. It doesn’t look like this colder and colder pattern should continue. There are signs of a little moderation around the week before Christmas that could last until the new year. But that’s a way off so until then find your winter jacket!

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