02. September 2016 · Comments Off on Hermine Forecast To Stall · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: ,

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Latest forecast map from the National Hurricane Center. The forecast continues to take Hermine well to the east of us. If this track verifies, we would receive very little impact and rain from this storm in western New Jersey. Along the Jersey shore is a completely different story. It is very RARE to have a storm like this stall for several days. If it does, even if weakening, the winds and seas will continue to pound the shoreline communities causing beach erosion and possibly coastal flooding.

Same watches and warnings are posted along the eastern seaboard.

As expected, Hermine did weaken down to a tropical storm overnight. This is not unusual as a tropical system moves over land. But once it emerges over the mid Atlantic waters, these waters are unusually warm from our hot summer. Warm waters is what feed and strengthen ocean storms….

Rainfall Forecast from Hermine

Rainfall Forecast from Hermine

As of right now it doesn’t look like we will receive much rain from Hermine in western New Jersey. There will be some rain as you head further east. This doesn’t mean we will have sunny skies either. I expect more clouds than sun while our friend is in town.

01. September 2016 · Comments Off on Hermine Now A Hurricane · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: , ,

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Hermine is now a hurricane which is what was expected to happen.

Tropical storm warnings are now up for the east coast of FL up to NC/VA border area. Tropical storm watch is issued north of that up to near NYC which includes the New Jersey shore.

Guidance today has continued the idea of the hurricane remaining east of us when it gets this far north. The storm continues to look like it will slow down when it does get here. Look how little it moves from 1 pm Sunday to 1 pm Tuesday (last three S with circle around them. Keep in mind it probably will not be as strong then as it is now.

If the storm stays on this track, western New Jersey will see less rainfall. The shore continues to look like it will get the most impact from this including beach erosion.

01. September 2016 · Comments Off on Tropical Storm Hermine Overnight Update · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags: , , ,
NHC Hermine Overnight Update

NHC Hermine Overnight Update

the overnight computer models along with the National Hurricane Center have adjusted the forecast path for Hermine back to the East. This is not surprising and we will continue to see the forecast models sway back and forth. The storm isn’t even on land yet. Once it is we will have better data to make hopefully better forecasts.

The important thing to keep in mind is the trend. For the last day or two the trend was to have the storm come further north and east. Now we see on 12 hour period that shits it further to the east. Let’s see if this continue or not.

What’s important to note, if the above track verify’s, even though its not as close as the previous track it will impact our weather with some wind and rain on Labor Day weekend.

Another important item to note is the steering currents for this storm get very weak as it gets near our area. Notice how the last two forecast locations on the map above have the circles very close to each other. There is a possibility the storm could stall or become erratic. Again, we need to keep an eye on it and see if the trend continues.

In other news Stewartsville pickup up about 1/3″ of much needed rain overnight. Look for scattered showers this morning giving way to nicer weather and a beautiful Friday!

31. August 2016 · Comments Off on Tropical Storm Hermine Forms And Heading Our Way · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: ,
NHC Forecast Map for TS Hermine

NHC Forecast Map for TS Hermine

TD ( turning into TS Hermine today. The storm continues to move further north and west than originally thought. The revised NHC track has the storm approaching our neck of the woods just in time for a beautiful Labor Day weekend.

As of right now, if this continues on this track, windy rains could move into our area as soon as Saturday night.

I’ll continue to keep an eye on this and provide updates.

27. August 2016 · Comments Off on Tropical Update · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags:
Tropical Update August 27, 2016

Tropical Update August 27, 2016

It’s that time of year again when we need to start paying attention to the tropics. Nothing major on the horizon. Area #1 in the map above, which was investigation area 99L, may re-energize as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Another interesting area is #3 as that may impact the Carolina coast. None of these look significant at this point. But if you’re on a beach vacation in those areas, it’s significant!

02. October 2015 · Comments Off on Friday Morning Joaquin Update · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: ,

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Overnight models continue to support the idea of hurricane Joaquin heading to the north and east and not directly impacting the US coast. There of course will be indirect effects.

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Rain will move back into western New Jersey this morning and remain on and off through the night. Showers should be the rule for both Saturday and Sunday. Heavier rain now looks to remain to our south with our area receiving between 1/2″ and 1″ of rain – perhaps a bit less to the north.

And let’s not forget about the wind. I already had a gust to 19 this morning and the day just begun!

7day

Post Joaquin we get into some nice fall weather.

Updates as warranted.

01. October 2015 · Comments Off on Latest on Hurricane Joaquin · Categories: Hurricane · Tags:

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The 5 pm advisory from the NHC is out above. The forecast path is now a miss on landfall for the US. But that does not mean we won’t feel the effect of this strong hurricane. We will indirectly receive some rainfall from it along with breezy conditions. Closer to the coast will be a different story. They are already experiencing flooding at high tides and the waves will get larger and larger.

Also note on the map above it won’t be in our latitude until Tuesday. Expect breezy conditions, especially in exposed elevated locations, and near the shore of course, on Monday and Tuesday.

More updates as they become available.

 

01. October 2015 · Comments Off on JCP&L & Joaquin · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: ,

JCP&L offers a suite of web and mobile tools to report power outages and stay informed during severe weather. Visit www.jcp-l.com/connect to learn more. ‪#‎HurricaneJoaquin‬

JCP&L's photo.
01. October 2015 · Comments Off on Coastal Flooding Underway on NJ Coast · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: , ,

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Wildwood NJ Photo by: Photo: Matt Ulmer

This is no surprise as we have had an on shore flow for the past several days with a strong north easterly winds. These winds will only increase in the next few days – even if Joaquin stays far to our east!

01. October 2015 · Comments Off on Hurricane Joaquin Upgraded · Categories: Hurricane · Tags:

Joaquin is now a major hurricane, a category 4 as of 2 pm:

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Notice that the official National Hurricane Center track is even further to the east from this morning. I expect this trend to continue. The big question that needs to be answered now is how far east will it go?

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