Rainfall estimates for the next few days
What looks to be a somewhat rare summer Nor’easter looks to form later today into the weekend. At this point it appears as most of the rain will stay south of western New Jersey. If you have any plans at the Jersey shore, especially down south, that’s another story.
Sunday appears to be the better of the two days.
Lightening strikes in Stewartsville July 21, 2017. Photo by DAVE DABOUR
The storms didn’t disappoint yesterday late afternoon/early evening. There was plenty of lightening to see and rain. Stewartsville received 0.76″ of rain from the severe thunderstorm.
Severe thunderstorm watch until 10pm
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and Central New Jersey
Southeast New York
Eastern Pennsylvania
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A long-lived cluster of severe thunderstorms will track
southeastward across the watch area this afternoon, posing a threat
of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest
of Bridgeport CT to 35 miles west southwest of Trenton NJ. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 424...WW 425...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30030.
Severe thunderstorm watch for NW PA
Granted this is NOT western New Jersey – yet – but certainly on our doorstep. It looks like today’s strongest threat of sever weather will start out in NE PA and then slide SE across portions of western NJ (mostly eastern sections).
I’ll keep an eye on this and post updates as I can
Hazy, Hot and Humid weather of Summer 2017 continues. Remember these days in the dead cold of winter 😉
Marginal risk of severe weather in western New Jersey on Thursday
As can be seen in the map above by the Storm Prediction Center, the best chances of severe weather will be to our north and west. As far as timing the best chances are this evening into the night. Some could linger into Friday morning.
The official definition of a heat wave in our park of the country is three consecutive days of high temperatures of 90 or above. We haven’t hit that yet in Stewartsville but we’ve been oh so close:
15th: 85
16th: 86
17th: 89
18th: 89
19th: 92
20th: 87+
Today, the 20th still isn’t over and I expect us to hit 90 or above so we will be 2/3rds of the way there. If we were to slightly modify the definition to be 89 or above we would already be there. Change it a few more degrees to 85+ and it’s a slam dunk.
Parts of western New Jersey picked up a good amount of rain yesterday. Stewartsville received 0.83 from the late afternoon thunderstorms and an additional 0.10″ overnight.
Severe weather threat stays south of western New Jersey on Friday
While Friday will be cooler than the last few days, the humidity will still be very uncomfortable. The best chances for any severe weather look to be to the south of western New Jersey – but not that far away. So keep an eye to the sky.
More moderate rain heading to western New Jersey
Good news is nicer weather returns for the weekend. Then look for another warm/hot/humid spell next week. It is summer after all!
Hottest day of the summer so far today in western New Jersey
I think its safe to say that today will be the hottest day of the warm season so far. Temperatures combined with humidity levels will make it feel miserable and borderline dangerous and unhealthy in some locations.
SPC has placed all of western New Jersey in a slight risk of severe weather today
With warm and humid weather comes the chance of sever weather. Look for the potential for strong storms later on today, tonight and even tomorrow.
The SPC has placed all of western New Jersey in a marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon
With warm summer-time temperatures today along with a slight trigger there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon. The greatest threat appears to be wind gust if you do receive a storm – which will be scattered. Greatest threat right now appears to be 4-6 pm or in that vicinity.
strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in western New Jersey
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of western New Jersey in a slight risk area for thunderstorms today. The greatest threat will be this afternoon from 4-8 pm.
Those in eastern PA yesterday were treated to quite a light show last night. I was driving back home to western New Jersey around 8:30-pm and there was so much cloud to cloud lightening it was spectacular!
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