22. January 2016 · Comments Off on Friday Afternoon Storm Updates · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

Radar-20160122-1500

A couple of changes to the forecast:

  • The storm is progressing faster than initially thought.
  • When the snow does start, it remains light for a shorter duration than originally thought (meaning heavier snow sooner)
  • The morning computer guidance has trended a little further north which would translate to western New Jersey potentially receiving
  • NWS has added Hunterdon county to the Blizzard warning. This is mostly for blowing snow and wind

However with the above facts, our air is still very dry in western New Jersey. In fact the dryness has actually decreased a little this afternoon.

So once you start looking at radar graphics either on the internet or TV, most of what you see will not yet be reaching the ground. In the radar picture above, most of what is shown in PA is not reaching the ground. It is snowing in Washington DC area.

So with the above said, I’d like to update with the following:

Timing: looks for flurries or light snow to move into western and southern areas of western New Jersey between 9 pm and midnight.

Amounts: Southern sections (near and south of I-78) could see snow totals in the 8-14″ range if not higher. 6-12″ amounts will extend further north in our area (past I-80)

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (2)

 

22. January 2016 · Comments Off on Details On Weekend Snowstorm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

 

 

12604720_10153820409136866_17308852647168838_o

The National Weather Service has upgraded the Winter Storm watch to a Warning which was expected.

Timing: While some light snow or flurries could start before midnight tonight I expect the snow to start around midnight. If you like to look at radar on the internet, you WILL see snow on the radar BEFORE midnight. But it won’t reach the ground. The air mass we are in right now is COLD and DRY. It will take a while for it to “moisten up.”

How much: My forecast for western New Jersey continues at 6-12″ – less to the north and more to the south. Northern areas of western New Jersey could be closer to 3-6″ while southern areas closer to a foot or slightly more. You will not have to go that further south to see a nice increase in snowfall.

How long: Look for the snow to last about 24 hours so it should start to taper off around midnight or the early morning hours of Sunday morning

Winds: Will be noticeable. Closer to the shore they will be very windy with gusts 40-60 mph. In western New Jersey we could see wind gust to 30-40 mph at times. Once we have snow on the ground this will cause snow to blow and drift at times. That combined with snow falling will reduce visibility at times. We probably won’t meet the criteria for a blizzard but will be close at times.

Intensity: Snow rates will vary. There will be times when it will only be snowing lightly. Then there will be times it will be near blizzard like conditions. This storm will have snow in bands that will vary from light to heavy. there *may* even be thunder snow!

Concerns: I’m concerned with the sharp cut off of snow in northern areas. Any change to the storm track will drastically change snow amounts in all areas. We could easily change snow amounts be 6″ in either direction if the storm deviates from the expected track.

Updates: I will post updates today and throughout the weekend on the storm. Besides this blog you can also follow me on twitter: dabour

21. January 2016 · Comments Off on Less Snow For Western New Jersey This Weekend? · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

20160121-GFS-12Z

Recent computer models, which weather forecasters use as a tool to forecast weather, have been keeping northern areas of the storm with less snow while maintaining the snow bulls eye near Washington DC. This is in part due to the strong high pressure to the north that is holding its ground and has dry air. If this trend continues I will most likely lower my snow forecast for this weekend to 4-8.” There’s even a chance that is too high but let’s not jump the gun yet. It’s still going to be an impressive storm with wind. Does not look to start until early Saturday morning in western New Jersey area.

21. January 2016 · Comments Off on Blizzard Watch Issues for Central/Southern NJ · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: , ,

BlizxardWatch

Not a direct impact to western New Jersey but the NWS just issues a Blizzard Watch for central and southern New Jersey as seen in the green area in the map above. Note this does NOT include Hunterdon county or Morris.

I believe the NWS did this for two reasons:

  • there were already Blizzard watches in eastern NJ counties and NYC and Long Island and Washington DC and related areas. This now “connects the two areas.
  • the blizzard watch for the northern areas will be more for wind than snow amounts.

The National Weather Service defines a blizzard with more mentions of wind than snow as seen above. Also note that it needs to be maintained for a minimum of 3 hours. I believe eastern and southern sections, closer to the coast where winds will be higher and closer to the storm center, have the greater potential to see these conditions.

21. January 2016 · Comments Off on Latest Snow Forecast For Western New Jersey · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

12507292_1020773054645378_3950345578539035797_n

I’m in complete agreement with the above map from the National Weather Service in Mt Holly NJ. It shows less snow to the north and more to the south. A general 6-12″ for western New Jersey area with more to the south and less to the north.

The snow will not start until the pre-dawn hours on saturday morning. So by sun up on Saturday there may only be a coating to an inch or so on the ground. Saturday will be when the storm moves in and intensifies as it does so. It will be breezy as well with temperatures not getting above freezing in western New Jersey.

Today and Friday will be great days to prepare for the storm. Unfortunately I heard supermarkets are already busy and shovels and salt are selling like hot cakes on Sunday morning. This of course is to be expected for a January snow storm – especially the first one.

Look for the snow to not end until the early morning hours on Sunday morning. The winds will remain brisk if not full fledged windy so that will make cleanup all the harder.

You may have heard that eastern NJ and NYC has issued a blizzard watch. Why not here? That’s because they are closer to the coast and the winds will be higher. A blizzard does not mean more snow necessarily – it focuses more on reduced visibility from blowing and drifting snow over several hours. There is also blizzard watch in Washington DC area for the same reasons.

If you have any interests along the coast, there will be coastal flooding. Winds will gust to 40-60 mph. There could be some rain or sleet mixed in at times along the shore.

I will update when I have something to share during the day today and tomorrow and throughout the storm on Saturday (provided power and internet cooperate 😉

20. January 2016 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Watch Issued by NWS · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

NWS Warnings

A quick update to mention that the National Weather Service has updated a Winter Storm Watch for this storm we’ve been disusing from late Friday night into Sunday morning.

Here are the details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...A MAJOR STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...

NJZ007>010-012>015-PAZ061-062-105-211000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.160123T0500Z-160124T1500Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
321 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...FAR NORTHERN SUBURBS OF PHILADELPHIA...LEHIGH
  VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE
  HEAVY AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY BE DRY AND PUFFY AT THE START, BUT WILL
  BECOME WETTER AND HEAVIER AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. SHOVELING MAY BE
  PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH PHYSICAL AILMENTS. SNOW MAY CLING TO
  WIRES AND TREES WHICH MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ROADS WILL
  BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO INCREASING ACCUMULATION DURING THE
  EVENT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&
20. January 2016 · Comments Off on French Toast Warning In Effect for Saturday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags: , ,

NAM-20161120-AM

All the computer models are in for this morning. Confidence remains high that the area will experience a moderate snow event on Saturday.

Here are some facts for this upcoming storm:

  • There will be a sharp cut off in precipitation on the north side of the storm
  • Higher amounts will fall to the south. Northern section of western New Jersey will be aided by elevation to an extent but more moisture will be present to the south
  • Snow will not start until early Saturday morning before sun up

If I had to put an amount down for western New Jersey I’d say 6-12+ at this point. Less to the north and more to the south and perhaps south-west.

So I expect the grocery stores will start being busy on Thursday and should be crazy and Friday so if you need bread, eggs and milk, plan accordingly!

More updates on Thursday

20. January 2016 · Comments Off on Wednesday Morning Update On Snow · Categories: snow, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

941017_1208364745859779_2310827850707609429_n

Good Wednesday morning in western New Jersey. Today will be not as cold and windy as the last two. High should be in the 30’s and the winds should be lighter. There will be an increase in clouds and we could see some flurries or snow showers overnight. Some areas could receive a coating – others nothing

Then our attention turns to the weekend snow storm. While the morning computer runs are being created an evaluated I wanted to share the following:

  • It now looks like the snow will not start until after midnight on Friday. So Friday day and evening should be fine. In fact there may only be a couple of inches of snow on the ground Saturday morning when you wake up
  • As you can see from the precipitation map above, the bulls eye for this storm is going to be to our southwest. But even with that being said we are still looking at the potential for a good amount of precipitation
  • One of the important computer models we use as a tool to forecast the weather, did return us to a snowy solution last night. As you may recall that model moved the heavy snow south of us but now has us in a moderate snow event.

Once all of the updated models are in and analyzed (mid afternoon) I will post an update. It’s possible at that time the NWS may issue some watches of their own and I may issue a French Toast Warning!

19. January 2016 · Comments Off on French Toast Watch Now In Effect · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: , ,

Original_French_Toast

Good Tuesday afternoon. Western New Jersey is continuing with winter-like conditions for a change. Blustery and chilly this afternoon with high temperatures once again not going above freezing.

Wednesday will be a little warmer with high temperatures in the 30’s. Thursday could feature some morning flurries but will be another day with high temperatures in the seasonable 30’s

Then our attention turns to the weekend. As discussed yesterday a storm system approaching the west coast will make its way across the US reaching our area later Friday evening into the weekend. Computer models, a tool that meteorologist use to forecast the weather in the future, continue to indicate this storm will impact our area with significance.

So hence forth the french toast watch is not in effect. This could be upgraded to a warning in 1-2 days. So start thinking about gathering your comfort feeds, milk, bread and eggs. I’m sure based on the hype in the media for this storm, the supermarkets will start getting busy on Wednesday and will be full bore crazy on Thursday!

 

18. January 2016 · Comments Off on Cold Air Returns · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

20160117_161450

The light snow that fell yesterday afternoon certainly over performed in western New Jersey. Stewartsville received about 1/4.” additional reading from other areas are listed below.

12491765_1026136340763285_2453470203927082073_o

Cold weather continues today and tomorrow. It will remain at or below normal most of the week. Then our attention turns to a storm potential for Friday into Saturday. Computer weather models have been consistent in showing this storm for Friday into Saturday. The overnight models continue to show this potential. right now the storm is north of Hawaii so it still has to travel a long way. If the storm reaches its potential in our area we could receive a heavy snow. There’s a chance it could move further away and we receive only a little or it could move closer to us and we go from snow to rain. I will continue to monitor the storm potential.

Here are additional snow reports from yesterday and overnight:

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 7
hours for the weather system that has been affecting our region.
Appreciation is extended to cooperative observers, Skywarn spotters,
the general public and the media for these reports. This summary is
also available on our home Page at weather.Gov/phi

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location          storm total     time/date   comments                   
                     snowfall           of 
                     /inches/   measurement

Delaware

...New Castle County...
   New Castle County Ai   0.8   700 PM  1/17  ASOS                    
   New Castle             0.7   420 PM  1/17  social media            
   Newark                 0.3   400 PM  1/17  cocorahs                

...Sussex County...
   Delmar                 2.8   234 PM  1/17  social media            
   Milton                 0.5   635 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

Maryland

...Queen Annes County...
   Barclay                0.5   325 PM  1/17  social media            

New Jersey

...Atlantic County...
   Atlantic City Intl a   2.8   700 PM  1/17  ASOS                    
   Estell Manor           2.5   615 PM  1/17  co-op observer          
   Mays Landing           2.3   600 PM  1/17  social media            
   Bargaintown            2.0   532 PM  1/17  social media            
   Absecon                1.5   550 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Burlington County...
   Mount Holly WFO        0.8   700 PM  1/17  NWS office              
   Florence               0.8   700 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Fort Dix               0.7   532 PM  1/17  social media            
   Delran TWP             0.6   545 PM  1/17  NWS employee            
   Hainesport             0.5   515 PM  1/17  social media            
   Mount Laurel           0.5   358 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Cinnaminson            0.3   401 PM  1/17  social media            

...Camden County...
   Sicklerville           1.0   335 PM  1/17  NWS employee            
   Haddon Heights         0.7   550 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Lindenwold             0.4   510 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Cape May County...
   Dennisville            2.2   734 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Belleplain             2.0   845 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Cape May Court House   2.0   845 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Seaville               1.8   700 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   2 NW Cape May          1.5   846 PM  1/17  co-op observer          
   Green Creek            1.0   700 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Goshen                 0.7   845 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Cumberland County...
   Newport                1.1   830 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Vineland               1.0   600 PM  1/17  social media            

...Gloucester County...
   Washington TWP         0.6   613 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Williamstown           0.5   330 PM  1/17  amateur radio           

...Hunterdon County...
   Flemington             0.3   324 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Mercer County...
   2 WSW Robbinsville     0.8   500 PM  1/17  cocorahs                
   Ewing                  0.7   500 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Lawrence TWP           0.6   533 PM  1/17  social media            

...Middlesex County...
   Cheesequake            1.0   800 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   East Brunswick         0.4   533 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Monmouth County...
   Manalapan              1.0   640 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   1 E Colts Neck         0.9   600 PM  1/17  cocorahs                
   Howell TWP             0.9   510 PM  1/17  social media            

...Morris County...
   2 E Randolph TWP       0.4   635 PM  1/17  cocorahs                

...Ocean County...
   Waretown               2.0   630 PM  1/17  social media            
   Forked River           1.5   700 PM  1/17  social media            
   brick TWP              1.0   712 PM  1/17  social media            
   Lakewood               1.0   715 PM  1/17  social media            
   Bayville               0.1   500 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Somerset County...
   5 ESE Hillsborough     0.8   700 PM  1/17  cocorahs                
   Basking Ridge          0.6   536 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Sussex County...
   Highland Lakes         0.3   500 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Warren County...
   Blairstown             0.1   743 PM  1/17  social media            
   Stewartsville            T   808 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

Pennsylvania

...Berks County...
   Huffs Church           0.3   356 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Bucks County...
   Furlong                0.6   539 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Hilltown TWP           0.3   355 PM  1/17  NWS employee            

...Delaware County...
   Chadds Ford            0.5   806 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Lehigh County...
   Heidelberg TWP         0.8   425 PM  1/17  social media            
   Lehigh Valley Intl a   0.1   700 PM  1/17  ASOS                    

...Montgomery County...
   Wynnewood              0.4   500 PM  1/17  trained spotter         
   Gilbertsville          0.3   400 PM  1/17  trained spotter         

...Philadelphia County...
   Philadelphia Intl Ai   0.5   700 PM  1/17  ASOS

 

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