temperature now up to 28 degrees and *slowly* climbing in western New Jersey. Hopefully by 1 am will be above freezing and can have plain rain. 0.9” total of snow and sleet.
Figured tonight would be a good time to repost this graphic that explains the difference between snow, sleet and freezing rain.
And you can only get hail in thunderstorms which are typically in warmer weather. Hail and sleet are different.
So right now, even though we are well below freezing at the surface in western New Jersey (mid 20’s), there is a warmer layer above us that is melting the snow. But there is still enough cold air near the surface to re-freeze the rain and turn it into snow. Once a snow flake melts, it can’t go back to being a snow flake 
We will most likely have a period of freezing rain until all of the warmer air makes it down to the surface and gives us rain. We want that to be a short as possible. I’d rather have sleet over freezing rain…
Even though this radar image above does not show us in the pink/red, heavy sleet is now falling in most locations of western New Jersey as of 4:30 pm. Stewartsville received 1/2” snow before the changeover.
Now a waiting game to see when warmer air makes it down to the surface and switches us to rain. This may not be until after midnight.
Roads are getting very slippery!
The Thursday event now looks like the heaviest snow will once again be to our south. But we will still see some. More details later.
In what has become a very familiar site in western New Jersey this winter, light snow has begun to fall in the area again. The light snow started around 1:15 pm.
The snow may pick up in intensity as the afternoon wears on. Now that we are in a stronger March sun angle, snow may not stick to untreated surfaces until later in the afternoon or early evening.
But that is the time we should start transitioning to sleet and freezing rain. The hopefully plain rain later tonight as we slowly climb above freezing.
Be safe on the roads this afternoon and evening!
Skies are now mostly cloudy in western New Jersey this Tuesday morning. We will see the clouds thicken up and lower as the day moves on. High temperatures will be in the upper 20’s to around 30. Look for snow to move into our area between 3-5 pm. Most locations will receive a coating to 2” of snow this evening before it changes over to sleet then freezing rain. Speaking of changeover, I believe this will happen quickly this evening. We could start seeing sleet mixing in as early as 7pm. Then it will become a complete wintry mix including freezing rain. Then we start the waiting game: how fast will the surface temperature rise so we can switch from freezing rain to plain rain. This could happen as early as 10 pm or as late as after midnight.
We will have periods of rain late night into the day on Wednesday. Wednesday will be warmer with a high in the low 40’s.
Then round two starts. Colder air will start working into our area Wednesday evening and night. This will eventually mix the rain with sleet. Then we will transition to snow and it looks to continue into Thursday. This will be a battle between how fast the cold air arrives while the precipitation stays around. Right now computer models are suggesting we have the potential for an additional 3-6” late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. I’ll focus more on this once we get tonight’s weather out of the way.
Then colder Thursday night (single digits) then we have what looks like a nice stretch of dry weather Friday into Monday!
| Stewartsville Monthly Weather Observation Summary | ||||||||
| Feb-15 | ||||||||
| DAY | MAX | MIN | MEAN | PRECIP | SNOW | SOG | COMMENTS | |
| 1 | 37.0 | 11.0 | 24.0 | 0.10 | 1 | 4.5 | 1 | |
| 2 | 35.0 | 14.0 | 24.5 | 0.89 | 3.9 | 7.5 | .75 liquid as of 7 am | |
| 3 | 26.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 7 | ||||
| 4 | 36.0 | 10.0 | 23.0 | 7 | ||||
| 5 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 21.5 | 0.04 | 0.4 | 7 | ||
| 6 | 28.0 | 5.0 | 16.5 | 6 | ||||
| 7 | 40.0 | 10.0 | 25.0 | 6 | ||||
| 8 | 42.0 | 31.0 | 36.5 | 5.5 | ||||
| 9 | 33.0 | 23.0 | 28.0 | 0.11 | 0.4 | 5 | rutgers data problems | |
| 10 | 38.0 | 24.0 | 31.0 | 5 | ||||
| 11 | 36.0 | 17.0 | 26.5 | 5 | ||||
| 12 | 40.0 | 13.0 | 26.5 | 0.04 | 0.5 | 5 | ||
| 13 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 5 | ||||
| 14 | 28.0 | 4.0 | 16.0 | 0.25 | 3.1 | 4.5 | ||
| 15 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 0.01 | 8 | |||
| 16 | 20.0 | -2.0 | 9.0 | T | T | 8 | ||
| 17 | 26.0 | 11.0 | 18.5 | 0.14 | 3 | 12 | ||
| 18 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | T | 11 | |||
| 19 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 12.5 | T | T | 10.5 | ||
| 20 | 17.0 | -3.0 | 7.0 | 9.5 | ||||
| 21 | 26.0 | -3.0 | 11.5 | 0.25 | 3.2 | 9 | ||
| 22 | 44.0 | 25.0 | 34.5 | 0.07 | 0.9 | 13 | 4.1 storm total | |
| 23 | 35.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 11 | ||||
| 24 | 24.0 | -7.0 | 8.5 | 11 | ||||
| 25 | 37.0 | 10.0 | 23.5 | 11 | ||||
| 26 | 28.0 | 16.0 | 22.0 | T | T | 10.5 | ||
| 27 | 29.0 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 10.5 | ||||
| 28 | 29.0 | 4.0 | 16.5 | 10.5 | ||||
| 1.90 | 16.40 | |||||||
| Extreme High | 44.0 | Date: | 22-Feb | Seasonal Snow Total: | 37.20 | |||
| Extreme Low | -7.0 | Date: | 24-Feb | |||||
| Mean Max: | 29.6 | |||||||
| Mean Low: | 8.9 | |||||||
| Mean: | 19.2 | |||||||
Sunday’s snow behaved pretty much as forecasted for western New Jersey. Most locations received about 2-4” of snow. Stewartsville received 2.9” of snow before ending as a little freezing rain. Roads were horrible late yesterday. Most schools were once again delayed Monday morning.
Today we’ll see sunshine and warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 30’s to near 40. There will be a little breeze that will make it a little cooler. Keep in mind our normal high temperature for early March is mid 40’s!
It will be important to get up as much snow today on walks and drives as it will get cold tonight. Low temperatures will be in the low teens. Tuesday will feature an increase of clouds with light snow arriving late afternoon into the evening. The snow will mix and change to sleet then freezing rain overnight. Look for 1-2” of snow before changeover. We will warm up enough on Wednesday to change over to a rain with a high temperature in the low to mid 40’s. Then another disturbance will ride up near us and bring down colder air Wednesday night that will change the rain back to snow before ending. We could receive more light snow accumulations then. We end the work week on a cold note with highs in the 20’s.
Right now it looks like a good weekend with temperatures near 40 so keep your fingers crossed!
Another chilly morning in western New Jersey with low temperatures earlier in the night in the single digits but have now risen to the teens. Look for snow to overspread the area by mid day. It will be light and spotty until mid to late afternoon. Then we watch the advance of warmer air aloft that will change snow over to a wintry mix. This could happen as early as 6 pm or as late as never. Southern and eastern sections have the best chances of changing to a wintry mix. Northern and western section may not change over at all or only at the very end. It’s something that will have to be watched as the storm unfolds. I’ll post updates as time allows.
I still expect 1-3” in general with potentially more in areas that do not mix with sleet and freezing rain. The NWS is forecasting slightly more as reflected in the above map.
Good news is the storm should be winding down by midnight. This will give road crews overnight to get things ready for Monday morning rush. I would still allow extra time.
The rest of the week will feature fast moving systems. More precipitation will move in on Tuesday into Wednesday. This looks to be snow at first that will quickly change to a wintry mix then rain by Wednesday. Then another chance of snow Thursday. March certainly is coming in like a lion!
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