The threat of potential severe weather for our area has been increased from slight to enhanced. I still expect the greatest primary threat to be wind followed by rain. An isolated tornado is not out of the question.
I will be busy this evening with my photography business. I urge everyone to pay attention to the weather and monitor alerts that automatically appear on my weather site!
NWS Watches and Warnings
Whenever you see the watches and warnings map above lit up like a Christmas tree, you know something is going on. The Nor’easter that will move into western New Jersey later tonight into Friday looks to be a formidable storm. There is a Flood Watch and a High Wind Watch for western New Jersey. There is a Winter Storm Watch for Sussex county further to the north.
NWS Snow Forecast
the biggest change I want to pass along at this time is the *potential* for more wet snow on Friday. I’m increasing my forecast for 1-3″ of heavy, wet snow that will accumulate mostly on colder surfaces.
Friday is a day where rain will change to wet snow and come down heavy at times as the wind increases. But the temperature will remain above freezing and all of this will occur during the day. There are some computer models suggesting we get closer to 6″ but I don’t see that happening at this point.
Further to the north and in elevated areas, more snow will accumulate – perhaps 3-6″ or more.
Timing: rain will start after 3 pm today. Rain should be light to moderate later this afternoon and the first part of this evening. Rain will then become heavy at times later tonight. Winds will pick up after midnight as well. Rain will gradually change to a wet snow Friday morning and continue off an on all day as winds increase.
What: Heavy rain, wind and wet snow on Friday. 1-2″ of rain. Winds gusting to 50-60 mph on Friday
I’ll continue to monitor and update as things change
Another chilly morning in western New Jersey with low temperatures earlier in the night in the single digits but have now risen to the teens. Look for snow to overspread the area by mid day. It will be light and spotty until mid to late afternoon. Then we watch the advance of warmer air aloft that will change snow over to a wintry mix. This could happen as early as 6 pm or as late as never. Southern and eastern sections have the best chances of changing to a wintry mix. Northern and western section may not change over at all or only at the very end. It’s something that will have to be watched as the storm unfolds. I’ll post updates as time allows.
I still expect 1-3” in general with potentially more in areas that do not mix with sleet and freezing rain. The NWS is forecasting slightly more as reflected in the above map.
Good news is the storm should be winding down by midnight. This will give road crews overnight to get things ready for Monday morning rush. I would still allow extra time.
The rest of the week will feature fast moving systems. More precipitation will move in on Tuesday into Wednesday. This looks to be snow at first that will quickly change to a wintry mix then rain by Wednesday. Then another chance of snow Thursday. March certainly is coming in like a lion!
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