Ice Threat Melts; More Snow Thursday

16. February 2021 · Comments Off on Ice Threat Melts; More Snow Thursday · Categories: snow, weather discussion · Tags: ,
Fog in Stewartsville Tuesday morning after overnight rain

Thankfully the ice threat never materialized in southern locations overnight. Much warmer air overtook the area as the storm system passed to our west and we were on the “warm” side of the storm.

When warmer air hits the cold snow pack, it common to make fog as is seen in many areas this morning

Ice? I did not see nay in Stewartsville area overnight as the temperature was just above freezing all night. Anyone get ice? If so please let me know in the comments

Overnight lows in northern NJ tuesday morning, Feb. 16, 2021

As shown on the above map, overnight low temperatures. I’m sure many of these were recorded just after midnight

Overnight rainfall in northern NJ, Feb. 16, 2021

And then there’s the rain. Many areas received at least 3/4″ of an inch and some more. This should put a nice dent in the snowpack. But don’t worry snow lovers – reinforcements are on the way!

NWS snow forecast for Thursday

Speaking of snow, our next parade of storms will arrive on Thursday. At this point this storm appears to be somewhat colder and snowier than the last storm. Look for snow to arrive Thursday morning and last a good part of the day. The snow looks to be plowable and be in the 4-8″ range – more to the north and less to the south.

Warmer air looks to arrive thursday night and change many areas (especially south) to a wintry mix of first sleet and then possibly freezing rain.

We’ll keep an eye on this and update accordingly.

Some good news? After this storm the atmosphere looks to “take a break” for a little while so expect some calmer and seasonable conditions. But remember: it’s still winter and still February!

Wintry Weather Returns

09. February 2019 · Comments Off on Wintry Weather Returns · Categories: weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,
NWS snow forecast for Monday morning

Much colder albeit seasonable temperatures have returned to western New Jersey this Saturday morning. temperatures are in the 20’s and there’s a stiff breeze. Winds will continue to be gusty today with gusts into the 30’s at times.

A weak system will move to our south late Sunday night into Monday morning. It should be cold enough for all snow. At this time it looks like western New Jersey should receive a coating to 2″ with higher amounts to the south.

Next storm system Monday night into Tuesday

Then our next system looks to approach our area late Monday night into Tuesday. This system will have more moisture to work with. It will be cold enough to start out as snow initially as we’ve seen with many storms this winter. We should receive several inches of snow before warmer air moves in and changes us over to a wintry mix and eventually rain. This storm system has the potential to give us 2-4″ or 3-5″ of snow before a changeover with higher amounts to the north. I’ll update this as we get closer to the event.

Light Snow Tonight; More Saturday

17. January 2019 · Comments Off on Light Snow Tonight; More Saturday · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:
NWS snow forecast

The computer models for the past 24 hours have been showing slightly less moisture associated with tonight’s system – the first of two. As a result I’m changing my forecast from 1-3″ to a coating to 2.” Area to the north and higher elevations could see some amounts closer to 3″.

Look for light snow to overspread our area from 8 pm – 11 pm. Snow should continue overnight but should end by morning. Tomorrow will be a good day to clean up and get ready for round 2 as our high temperature should get to 40.

AccuWeather graphic for next storm system

The Saturday night-Sunday storm will have more moisture and energy associated with it. Clouds will increase Saturday and light snow will start in the afternoon. The front end of this storm looks to have heavy snow at times. We could even receive 1+” of snow per hour at the peak of the storm.

Then warmer air will start working in the upper atmosphere and that will first mix the snow with sleet and then freezing rain. We need to be on the watch for the potential for an extended period of icing early Sunday morning.

Depending on the exact track of the storm, some areas, especially in the couth, could even change over to rain at time Sunday morning before much, much colder air arrives by mid-day. This should change any mixed precipitation back to snow for a short time and there could be additional snow accumulations.

Coldest air of the new year arrives Sunday into Monday

The cold air is going to arrive quickly on Sunday. So fast that there could even be flash freezing. Any untreated water on walkways and roads will freeze up and ice over. The temperature could drop 20+ degrees in a few hours. Temperature should go from the low 30’s (or slightly higher where there’s rain) to near 20 by the end of the afternoon into the teens in the evening. Monday morning low should be just above zero. Wind chills on Monday will be bitter and the high temperature will struggle to get out of the single digits into the low to mid teens. Wind chills will be below zero in the morning.

Now is the time to prepare your house and car for the extreme cold weather ahead. I would avoid travel Saturday night into Monday if possible.

How much snow for Saturday into Sunday? Right now I’m leaning towards 4-8″ for our area. Some areas to our NW will be measuring snow potentially in feet, not inches. I’ll be keeping an eye on this and will update accordingly.

Heavy Rain On The Way

16. February 2016 · Comments Off on Heavy Rain On The Way · Categories: precipitation, winter · Tags: , ,

Snow outside encased in icy crust this morning in western New Jersey

Snow outside encased in icy crust this morning in western New Jersey

Anyone who does not have the pleasure of garaging their car will know real fast this morning that we had some freezing rain last evening. Allow extra time to scrape off the car and let it warm up.

Stewartsville received 1.4″ of snow before changing to sleet and freezing rain yesterday.

 

Sharp temperature rise in western New Jersey around 5 am Tuesday morning

Sharp temperature rise in western New Jersey around 5 am Tuesday morning

The temperature stayed quite cold in western New Jersey until around 5 am. Believe it or not we should top out in the mid 50’s today. Considering we were at 0 a few days ago that’s nearly a 60 degree temperature swing!

Moderate to heavy rain will be moving into western New Jersey later this morning and into the afternoon.

Moderate to heavy rain will be moving into western New Jersey later this morning and into the afternoon.

We expect to see an additional 1-2″ of rain today as all that rain on the radar above needs to pass through western New Jersey. It will remain all rain as the temperatures will be quite mild in the 50’s. Be on the lookout for localized flooding. HOpefully all the rain will melt the remaining ice on sidewalks and colder surfaces.

Zero To Snow and Rain on Monday

14. February 2016 · Comments Off on Zero To Snow and Rain on Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , , , , ,

Frigid start to Valentine's Day in western new Jersey

Frigid start to Valentine’s Day 2016 in western New Jersey

The official low temperature in Stewartsville was 0 this morning. I’m sure there were several stations further north and west in western New Jersey that were -5 to -10 this morning. Brrr!

NWS "most likely" snow forecast for Monday into Monday night before changeover to ice and rain on Tuesday

NWS “most likely” snow forecast for Monday into Monday night before changeover to ice and rain on Tuesday

We will have another cold night tonight but not as bad as last night. Winds have slacked off and will go calm this evening. For the first part of tonight, look for temperatures to fall sharply. They should start to level off as high thin clouds begin to increase as the result of our next weather maker.

Look for light snow to overspread the western New Jersey area by mid day on Monday. Snow should be light to moderate at time Monday afternoon into the evening. At this time I’m forecasting 1-3″ of snow before a change over to ice and rain. Higher numbers will be to the north and west and less to the south and east.

NWS 7 day forecast for western New Jersey

NWS 7 day forecast for western New Jersey

Believe it or not, even with all this frigid air over our area now we are talking about rain on Tuesday. A storm is expected to move up the coast Monday into Tuesday and either go over us or more likely to our West. That will put western New Jersey on the warm side of the storm. Look for snow Monday evening and overnight to first mix with sleet and freezing rain then change completely over to rain before Tuesday morning. rain on Tuesday could be heavy at times with 1-2″ of rain forecast. This could result in some street and river flooding since the ground is so frozen right now.

Looking longer range we warm up a little by the weekend and that will continue into next week but colder weather looks to return the last week of the month

 

Freezing Rain, Sleet For Monday

09. February 2015 · Comments Off on Freezing Rain, Sleet For Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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Monday morning update for western new jersey has most area schools closed today. Light rain started over night and transitioned to freezing rain and sleet as the temperature slowly dropped. Most untreated surfaces are slipper as seen in the above photo.

image

I was impressed with the steady rain of temperature decline since midnight. In researching this further and looking at overnight observation the colder air actually came in from the east and north. Portions of long island were colder than NJ. And now NJ is colder than portions of PA. This will all even out as the coastal storm strengthens.

As this trend continues today, we will see more sleet than freezing rain. Then some light snow will transition in this afternoon. I still expect only a coating to perhaps 2” in most areas. Northern sections of western new jersey will experience slightly more snow as they will have cold longer.

image

After today conditions improve. Tuesday we should see temperatures back up above freezing. Then another artic front will pass through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a little light snow but also the return of very cold air – perhaps the coldest of the season. Hopefully I’ll be able to stop saying that soon…

Freezing Rain Sunday

18. January 2015 · Comments Off on Freezing Rain Sunday · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: , ,

If you’re reading this in the morning, do not go outside and drive or walk until it warms up! There are MANY accidents and reports of people slipping and falling and breaking things!

Freezing rain advisory this morning until 1pm. Rain will be heavy at times until mid afternoon.

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Icy Monday Morning

12. January 2015 · Comments Off on Icy Monday Morning · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: , , ,

Monday morning started off icy as mentioned yesterday.

Icy start to Monday morning

What I found very interesting with this mornings ice is there was none on the trees – only the ground and roads. that tells me the air temperature was slightly above freezing but the ground was very cold from the preceding weather.

So far we picked up .41” of rain as of 5pm. Another light band of rain is moving through presently. There is some additional light rain and snow in central and western PA associated with the cold front that will move through later tonight. So we may see a little bit of frozen precipitation before it is all said and done.

Colder weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Then a gradual moderation later in the week into the weekend.

Icy Monday Morning Forecast

11. January 2015 · Comments Off on Icy Monday Morning Forecast · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: ,

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Monday mornings commute is shaping up to be not fun. It looks like snow sleet and freezing rain will move into western new jersey after 3 am Monday morning. It will probably start out as a little snow then quickly go over to sleet and freezing rain. The good news is we should see plain rain by mid day. Also the roads appear to still have plenty of treatment still on them. The bad news is it’s been cold lately and all the surfaces are cold and below freezing. I believe the biggest concern will be icing. The NWS map above shows the potential amount of icing for us: 1/10 to 1/4”

So delay travel if possible Monday morning or leave today/earlier. After that we have a brief cold spell again followed by temperatures return to the 30’s which should hopefully feel warm to us as long as there is no wind!

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