Granted it’s been chilly and windy for the past several days. All of that is about to change as we enter into an extended period of warm, above normal temperatures and little to no rain!
So if you have been putting off outdoor chores, starting Thursday is the time to get them done!
While today certainly still feels summer-like, tomorrow won’t feel like the first day of Fall 2019. In fact, tomorrow will be more humid and uncomfortable compared to today. We’ll add New Jersey to the above graphic borrowed from NWS in western PA and Ohio 😉
Even though Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler, the warmth remains all week throughout the area
Above normal temperatures look to continue into the beginning of October as well.
All of this warmth has come along with dry weather. For the first time in 18 months, parts of western New Jersey are on the drought monitor. Southern sections are at the lowest level which is D1, Abnormally dry.
We will get a little rain late Monday as a cold front passes through our area. Look for 0.1-0.25″ of rain in most locations – hardly enough to make a dent in our nearly 2″ month to date deficit.
Total rain forecast thru Wednesday
Our taste of fall and some dry weather takes a break on Tuesday and especially Wednesday. A soaking rain is on the way overnight into early Tuesday morning. MOst areas of western New Jersey look to receive 1-1.50″ of rain. The steadiest rain should be later Monday night into Tuesday morning. Then the rain should become more showery and intermittent.
SPC Wednesday Outlook
Then much warmer and unstable air move in on Wednesday before a cold front move thru later at night and brinks back the cooler temperatures. The SPC has placed our entire area in a slight risk of severe weather Wednesday. Right now the afternoon and evening looks to be the time frame.
Rainfall forecast for Sunday into Monday
The rainfall yesterday was on the lighter side of what was forecast. But some rain is better than no rain. Stewartsville received 0.66″ of rain.
Today will feature high temperatures in the 60’s which is above the seasonable normal of 61. Tomorrow will be slightly below normal with a high of 59. Then we moderate late week into the weekend. Saturday looks very nice but rain is forecast to move into the area on Sunday and it could be a good soaking as shown in the map above.
7 Day forecast for western New Jersey
The early fall heat wave is over! Much more seasonable and enjoyable weather is finally here. Or back if you remember the early part of the month! Some warmer and above normal weather looks to return around the middle of next week but ti doesn’t look to be as warm as what we just had – hopefully only mid 70’s for daytime highs.
8-14 day precipitation forecast
8-14 day temperature forecast
In looking ahead to the first half of October for western Jersey, warm and dry trend of late looks to continue. My lawn is starting to show signs of dryness – first time this warm season!
HOpefully we will still have cool nights. Fall foliage likes warm days and cool nights to bring out the best and brightest colors!
Happy first day of fall 2017! While it may not feel like fall like outside it officially begins shortly after 4 pm today.
6-10 day temperature outlook
Warmer temperatures will continue well into most of next week as well. In fact we will unfortunately flirt with the 90 degree mark Sunday and Monday!
Fall foliage report
So now that it’s fall we need to start thinking about the beautiful colors of fall. There is some colors out there already.
Post tropical storm Jose is still out there but slowly weakening and should diminish without causing any issues. Hurricane Maria should stay off-shore the eastern US after devastating Puerto Rico and other nearby islands.
Cooler weather should hopefully return by October.
The first snow of December is in the books. This is our second snowfall of the fall. 1/2″ was recorded in Stewartsville, NJ. I’ve seen reports of as much as 1.5″ in High Point NJ.
Take a picture if you like snow on the ground becasue it won’t last long. Rain returns later Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Then colder air arrives later in the week.
Most of the leaves are off the trees now in western New Jersey. Today, Monday should be the pick of the week weather-wise. A great day to go outside and finish any last minute outdoor chores (like me). Look for mostly sunny and highs in the low to mid 60’s.
Thursday looks to be our rainy day this week and we could receive a good amount as shown on the map above. Right now it looks like afternoon into evening.
Cooler air arrives on Tuesday then increasing clouds on Wednesday for the system that will bring us rain on Thursday. Fair and cooler weather looks accurate for next weekends as of right now.
Everything is on track for us to receive a good soaking today. It will not be raining all the time. The rain will come in waves, be heavy at times then nothing or only a drizzle.
There will also be gusty winds today in western New Jersey. The biggest threat will be the combination of rain + falling leaves = very slipper travel in sports. If you have ever walked on a bunch of wet leaves you know how slippery they can be. This is the first significant rain, with wind, and leaves we’ve had this fall so be on look out.
The storm could produce a band of heavy rain and wind in the middle of the night. There could also be some rumbles of thunder.
Warmer weather will continue today into tomorrow until a colder push of weather arrives later Thursday then cool into Saturday. Trick or treating continues to be fair but chilly on Saturday.
It may not feel like it later today and tomorrow but Fall 2015 is upon us! Look for high temperatures today near 80 in western New Jersey. Cooler more seasonable weather returns for the weekend as we watch some showers to our south.
Not too much color is in southern western new jersey as of yet. Perhaps a little more color to the north but as discussed yesterday still not too much.
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