NWS Ice Forecast
NWS Snow Forecast
Western New Jersey should see some light snow this afternoon starting from 1-3 pm. Most of this should be light snow but near the end and in southern locations it could mix with or change so sleet and freezing rain. The above is an ice forecast followed by a snow forecast from the NWS. My forecast is still for a coasting to 1″. Wintry mix should be over by early evening.
Sunday morning lows below zero!
Cold cold Sunday morning! -2 in Stewartsville and as you can see below zero in many other locations in western New Jersey.
NWS Snow forecast for Monday
With less wind on Sunday it will feel warmer but the air temperature will still be in the teens to around 20. With the warmer air comes the chance for some light precipitation Monday afternoon. Look for some light snow and even sleet to move into the area by mid afternoon Monday. Expect a coasting to 1″
NWS 7 Day Forecast
Bitter wind chills and very cold temperatures in western New Jersey yesterday will continue today but the wind shouldn’t be quite as bad as yesterday. This is the 12th day our high temperature has been below freezing!
Wind chill advisory continues until 10 am Sunday morning.
But somewhat warmer weather is on the way. But before it gets here we will see some light snow Monday afternoon and evening. This may end as some light freezing rain as the atmosphere warms up. We could see a coating to an inch before any possible changeover to freezing rain. This does not look like a major system.
Before we get there many sections of western New Jersey should be 4-10 degrees colder than this morning and should put many locations below zero. Sunday will be cold but with less wind it won’t feel as bad.
Then from Tuesday on our high temperatures should be in the upper 30’s with perhaps some days reaching closer to 40!
Photo by Dave Dabour
Wind gust in Stewartsville so far today to 34 mph. We will see wind gust to 40 at times today. Combined with temperatures in the single digits now means COLD weather!
Near zero lows tonight and a forecast of -3 Sunday morning. Winds look to subside on Sunday.
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 5 below zero to 20 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and east central and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until noon EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph through the day today will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow with the existing snow pack. In addition, minor tree damage is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and gloves.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Very cold wind chills expected. Plan on areas of poor visibilities and slick roadways to create difficult travel conditions at times. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Additional snowfall accumulations of around one inch or less into this evening. Expect wind chills to range from 5 below zero to 20 below zero. * WHERE...Sussex and Warren counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 7 PM EST this evening. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 1 AM Friday to noon EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of blowing snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and gloves. $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit www.weather.gov/phi/winter
Wow! Impressive storm via satellite!
You can just see the explosive growth of this ocean storm this morning!
Early morning radar shows snow has started
Right on schedule snow has started before sunrise this morning. As of 7 am there is about 0.3″ of new snow in Stewartsville.
We are still on track for 2-4″ of snow in western New Jersey. This will be a fast moving storm and winds will pick up today and blow around the snow.
Updates all day!
NWS Snow Forecast for Thursday
After looking at all the weather data so far today, I’m still on track with my forecast of 2-4″ for western New Jersey. At this point we need to start looking at actual data like radar and weather maps and see how the storm and precipitation are moving. One thing that has me a little concerned is down south on the radar it was showing an area on the west side further inland than I expected to see but to the east of it was a giant dry slot. If that pattern continues we could be in that dry slot as the storm moves up the coast. This will be something I will keep an eye on tomorrow.
There will be more snow further east as that will be closer to where the storm will be. One reason why totals are down is this is a fast moving storm. There is nothing blocking it and it should be out of our area later tomorrow. Out of our area from a snow point of view but then the winds will pick up and usher down the coldest temperatures of the season. Saturday morning and Sunday morning will either be at zero or below.
And if will be windy perhaps to the point of some scattered power outages by us. That is certainly something we don’t need when its cold and windy outside.
NWS Snow forecast
Above is a closer look on New Jersey. The snow should start lightly in the early morning hours. The snow will actually spread in from the south and east. Our temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to perhaps mid 20’s. This will make the snow dry and powdery. That’s good news for any shoveling but bad news when the wind starts blowing in the afternoon.
So What Can Go Wrong? (or right depending on your point of view)
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 317 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven record cold on its way to our area... ...A rapidly intensifying coastal storm will produce significant snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday... Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,Flemington, Somerville, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont,and Perkasie 317 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. In addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east central and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Scattered power outages could develop Thursday and Friday which would force considerable hardship where heat would not be available. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods of snow and blowing snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
NWS has issued a blizzard warning for the NJ Coast
The NWS has increased snow forecast to 3-4″
I support this forecast. The key to how much snow western New Jersey receives is 1) how close to the coast the storm is and 2) where the heavy snow bands setup. In strong storms like this one the snow falls in bands. Sometimes these bands move around so that a large area receives heavier snow. Sometimes they don’t. This is something we’ll have to watch tomorrow and I’ll have frequent updates.
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