National Weatherperson Day

05. February 2015 · Comments Off on National Weatherperson Day · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Happy National Weatherperson Day! For more information on the history of national weather person’s day follow this link.

Another artic cold front moved through western new jersey this morning by sunup and dropped about 1/2” of snow in the area. Temperatures did not rise too much after than and dropped for most of the day. By the evening commute temperatures are near 20 degrees! Tonight will be possibly the coldest night of the winter so far with low temperatures approaching zero.

Friday will be another cold day similar to this past Tuesday. Friday night won’t be quite as cold as tonight and the winds should diminish making it feel nicer. Saturday will have more clouds than sun but temperatures’ should rise to the mid to upper 30’s in our area.

Here’s the synopsis of what will happen Sunday into Tuesday. The artic front that passed through the area this morning will stall south of our area. Warmer air in advance of another storm system in the upper plains will bring in some precipitation on Sunday. This could arrive as early as Saturday night – timing to be determined. Sunday will feature a mix of snow, sleet and perhaps even rain. Since warm air will still be pumped in the upper layers of the atmosphere above us, we may even see rain in southern sections for a time. Then as the storm reaches the coast and intensifies, it will bring colder air into the area Sunday evening into Monday. It’s this time period that hold the greatest potential for our area to receive snow from this system.

One thing I want to point out is the heavier amounts of precipitation (snow) will fall to our north – primarily north of interstate 80. Computer model trends have been keeping it up there and in some cases moving it north – so this will be something to keep an eye on. If the precipitation moved too far north we will be warmer and receive less snow.

The situation should become clearer tomorrow.

Warmer Wednesday Followed By More Cold And Snow

04. February 2015 · Comments Off on Warmer Wednesday Followed By More Cold And Snow · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: ,

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Only far northern sections of western New Jersey saw any light snow or flurries this morning as an upper air disturbance passes north of the area. Once this clears skies should turn party sunny and warmer! We may approach 40 degrees this afternoon! Enjoy it while it lasts as colder weather is on the way. Another artic front will approach the area Thursday morning and bring with it a period of light snow or snow showers that should generally leave behind a dusting to 1”. Once again more should fall to our north as seen in the map above.

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Thursday night/Friday morning will be very cold with temperatures in the low single digits. Friday will be a very cold winter day similar to yesterday. then we moderate a bit on Saturday. Then another system approaches the area Saturday night into Sunday. There are several possibilities as what will happen with the next system so more information will be posted as we get closer. the cold and active storm pattern looks to continue easily into next week.

Tuesday Morning Update

03. February 2015 · Comments Off on Tuesday Morning Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

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Some clouds moved into the area towards morning and stopped temperatures from dropping into the single digits. Regardless western new jersey saw morning lows in the low teens. Tuesday will be a cold and chilly day with high temperatures remaining in the 20’s. Tonight we will see an increase in clouds as a weak clipper system passes well to our north. There is a chance northern section could see some flurries or snow showers that can leave a coating of snow.

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Wednesday is shaping up to be a nice break in winter weather with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s! Good chance to get out and shovel/scrap any snow that got left behind from recent storms. Then a cold front will be approaching the area on Thursday morning that will give us some light snow. At this time it looks like only a coating to perhaps 1”. Then back in the freezer on Friday. Next potential for significant winter weather will be the second half of the weekend.

Ground Hog Day Storm Update

02. February 2015 · Comments Off on Ground Hog Day Storm Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecase, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Happy ground Hog Day everyone! Western New Jersey picked up about 3-4” of snow late last night and early this morning. Some amounts in far northern Sussex county are approaching 12” as they never changed over to sleet and freezing rain/rain like most of western NJ did.

Already at this hour temperatures are starting to fall below freezing and light rain has already changed back to sleet and some light snow. This is somewhat surprising and concerning to me that this happened already. Look for this to continue into the afternoon. This is because the coastal storm is now taking over and causing colder temperature to rush back into the region. this will cause any standing water or wet snow to freeze over fast this afternoon. In fact we may see a 10-15 degree temperature drop in 1 hour later this afternoon!

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While I do not expect a lot of sleet and snow this afternoon some section may pick up a quick coating to around 1” in any heavier snow squalls that do develop. Look for temperatures to be in the single digits by sun up Tuesday morning.

Can you believe the ground hog actually saw his shadow? It must have been from all the TV lights! Six more weeks of winter!

Sunday Night Update on Monday Storm

01. February 2015 · Comments Off on Sunday Night Update on Monday Storm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Update on the storm. It has been snowing lightly in western New Jersey since about 5:30 pm this evening. As of 10:45 pm there is approximately 1” of new snow on the ground.

Based on observations and radar, my forecast is adjusted downward for 1-3” of snow before we start to mix with sleet and freezing rain (by 3am) and then change over to rain by 6-8am. The above map, a revised snowfall forecast by NWS, is supported by me. More snow will fall to the north and west and less to the south and east. As you go north, you will see 3-8” of snow before mixing.

Storm Update

01. February 2015 · Comments Off on Storm Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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I have limited time today due to photography and a big football game tonight Smile. I’ll post an update this evening if warranted.

We are starting off our Sunday morning in western New Jersey already cloudy. Snow light snow that is probably not reaching the ground is already falling in portions of western PA. Look for some light snow or snow showers to arrive by late afternoon or early evening. It should be snowing everywhere before the “big game” is over.

We will start off as all snow. Snow will become moderate to perhaps heavy at times late at night into the early morning hours. This is when I expect most of the accumulating snow to fall. I agree with the NWS map above. For western New Jersey my forecast is 3-6” of snow. More snow will fall in northern sections where the snow does not mix as much with sleet and freezing rain.

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A growing concern with the storm is an extended period of sleet and freezing rain. I expect them to start mixing in our area in the early morning hours on Monday with a complete changeover before sunrise. It’s not out of the question that some part of our area could changeover to all rain at some point. This will primarily be southern and eastern sections.

The above map is a forecasted ice amount from the NWS. I agree with the amounts here. Even though warmer air will be moving into the area and will be responsible for changing our snow to frozen precipitation, we have been cold lately and untreated surfaces will remain below freezing for a while if not the entire duration of the storm.

There is a chance the mixed precipitation could mix back with snow and perhaps change back to all snow on Monday before the storm ends.

Update On Sunday-Monday Storm

31. January 2015 · Comments Off on Update On Sunday-Monday Storm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecase, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Another very cold morning in western New Jersey this Saturday morning. Most stations were in the single digits with a stiff north west wind making it feel well below zero with wind chill.

I wanted to post this great graphic from the NWS that shows the different types of winter precipitation. Why? Because my forecast has some of them in it!

Recent computer modeling of the Sunday night-Monday morning storm continues to bring the storm closer to our area. This will result in the rain/mix/snow line coming very close to our area. In fact, at this time, I believe southern areas of western new Jersey will in fact switch over to a mix if not completely rain.

The NWS has placed western New Jersey in a Winter Storm Watch for Sunday evening into Monday. There current forecast for snow amounts is below:

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At this time I’m not forecasting amounts that high in southern areas of western new jersey. In these areas I’m forecasting 3-6” of snow for now with more to the north and west, especially elevated sections. In these areas I’ll forecast 6-10” at this time.

I’ll post more details Sunday morning or as time permits.

Friday Snow Shower Then Turning Windy and Sharply Colder

30. January 2015 · Comments Off on Friday Snow Shower Then Turning Windy and Sharply Colder · Categories: weather discussion

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I was out late last night and arrived home near midnight to 1/2” of snow falling at a good clip. Western New Jersey picked up about 1” of snow overnight.

Today a secondary cold front will push through the area this morning. This will bring in much colder temperatures and strong gusty winds. Once the front passes, I expect temperatures to gradually fall the rest of the day. Winds will pick up so much that the NWS has issued a wind advisory starting at 4 pm today.

Overnight Friday into Saturday morning will be another very cold morning with temperatures in the low single digits. I would not be surprised to see some temperatures at or below zero.

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then out attention turns to the next storm. It looks to arrive Sunday evening and last into Monday morning. The weather computer models have been trending more consistent lately and have also brought the storm further north. So far north that there is a rain/snow line to contend with. But I don’t think at this time it will be a factor for us. But if the trend continues it might be.

I agree with the map above from the NWS with projections on about how much snow can fall from this system. What I want to point out is this map is only until 7am Monday and snow could continue into Monday.

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The last item I want to mention is the cold pattern looks to continue well into next week. take a glance at Monday nights low! Brrr! Could be the coldest night of the winter season.

Update on Clipper for Thursday Night-Friday Morning

29. January 2015 · Comments Off on Update on Clipper for Thursday Night-Friday Morning · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecase, winter · Tags: , ,

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It was a very cold night in western New Jersey this morning. Many stations were in the low single digits with some below zero to the north.

A fast moving clipper system will visit the area this evening into tomorrow morning. Look for some snow showers any time after dinner. I support the above map from the NWS with a general coating to perhaps 1” or so in some area. The storm is moving fast and passing to our north so there could be some amounts closer to 2” up north.

This clipper will also be dragging another artic front through the area early Friday morning. This may result in a few more snow showers or even a brief snow squall. Then look for temperatures to drop for the remainder of the day and be extremely cold Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night.

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Out attention then turns to what will happen Sunday night into Monday. Yesterday computer guidance moved the storm further south. But then moved it back north. So we still don’t have any consistency yet. My early thoughts are the storm will have a hard time interacting with the cold air over our area so may stay to our south. We will still have an impact – just need to see how much. Details as the become available.

Clipper Thursday Then Sunday Into Monday

28. January 2015 · Comments Off on Clipper Thursday Then Sunday Into Monday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags: ,

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After the snow storm of sorts colder and breezy conditions have moved into the area. Lows this morning in western New Jersey were generally in the upper single digits and low teens. Looks for a cold and breezy Wednesday with highs in the upper 20’s.

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Another cold night tonight with temperatures dropping to around the same levels as last night. Then on Thursday we will see increasing clouds with snow showers moving in the afternoon. Light snow will be likely on Thursday evening. At this time I expect more to the north and less to the south. Western new jersey should expect about 1” of snow – slightly more further north. Good news is the winds will die down a little from where they are today.

The I want to point out how cold it’s going to get Friday night, Saturday and even Saturday night. Friday night/Saturday morning may see the coldest low temperatures of the winter so far. We will be near zero with high Saturday only in the mid teens!

Then we need to turn our attention to Sunday night into Monday. Right now it looks like snow will start and perhaps mix with or change to rain either Sunday night or Monday morning. More information will be posted on this as we get closer. For now just keep this in mind for any Super Bowl plans/parties you may be attending.

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