23. March 2018 · Comments Off on Weekend Weather Outlook March 23, 2018 · Categories: spring, weather discussion · Tags:

5 day weather forecast

The March sun is very powerful and a lot of snow was melted yesterday! Look for that to continue but we may not have quite as much sun. IN fact there could be a shower or a snow shower at times this afternoon.

Tonight will be another chilly evening and Saturday should be a mostly sunny but cool day. Saturday night we may see another passing snow shower. Palm Sunday the sun returns but we remain on the cool side

Looking into next week we should start seeing 50 or better for high temperatures starting on Tuesday!

19. March 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Weather Briefing March 19th, 2018 · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion · Tags: ,

Storm severity index

The calendar may say first day of Spring is tomorrow, March 20th but it certainly won’t feel like it. Today will start off with blue skies but cold conditions. Clouds will increase later on.

NWS 5 day forecast

There will be periods of wet snow this week. The first will happen on Tuesday afternoon. This will be mostly to our south and be a minor event. The second event will warrant a closer eye. The second one will take place on Wednesday. But since most of that will be falling during the day in mid to late March, anything that does accumulate will only be on colder surfaces.

NWS snow forecast

Above is the NWS snow forecast. As you can see most of it is to our south and should be primarily on colder, non-paved surfaces.

The rest of the week looks chilly (normal high temperatures now should be 50) with another chance of precip on Saturday. I know many Easter related activities start on this coming weekend so hopefully it will be minor or at night and be wet and not white!

Looking long term the rest of the month looks to remain chilly. April should bring warmer temperatures. Let’s just hope we don’t go from winter to summer!

16. March 2018 · Comments Off on Friday Weather Briefing March 16, 2018 · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winds, winter · Tags: ,

NWS 5 day forecast

Try as we might, Spring is no where near to be found. Strong gusty winds continue today, Friday with high temperatures only in the upper 30’s which is 10 degrees below normal.

Winds should die down tonight and over the weekend but early risers on Saturday morning will feel low to mid 20’s cold temperatures.

Dry conditions remain until Tuesday. Then we focus our attention on what could be the 4th coastal storm of the last couple of weeks. As of right now it could start as early as later on Tuesday and last, in some fashion or another, into Thursday morning. We’ll be keeping an eye on this and will have updates as we get closer.

01. March 2018 · Comments Off on Winter Weather Advisory Issued Friday into early Saturday · Categories: spring, weather discussion, winter · Tags:

NWS Snow Forecast

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

NJZ007-008-PAZ062-020845-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.180302T1600Z-180303T0900Z/
Warren-Morris-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Bethlehem,
and Easton
341 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches at higher elevations above 800 feet and 2 inches or less
  in the valleys are expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Morris counties. In
  Pennsylvania, Northampton county.

* WHEN...Rain will transition to snow initially along the high-
  elevation ridges around midday Friday and then closer to mid
  afternoon in the valleys. The snow will be heavy at times Friday
  afternoon and evening with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour
  possible. The snow is expected to end from west to east
  overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute on Friday. The combination
  of strong northwest winds gusting to 50 mph and heavy snow
  could create near-blizzard conditions with visibilities below
  one-half mile at times. The heavy, wet nature of the snow and
  strong winds will likely cause damage to trees and power lines
  that will lead to scattered power outages, especially at higher
  elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
01. March 2018 · Comments Off on Nor’Easter Friday into Friday Night · Categories: weather discussion · Tags: , , , , ,

NWS Watches and Warnings

Whenever you see the watches and warnings map above lit up like a Christmas tree, you know something is going on. The Nor’easter that will move into western New Jersey later tonight into Friday looks to be a formidable storm. There is a Flood Watch and a High Wind Watch for western New Jersey. There is a Winter Storm Watch for Sussex county further to the north.

NWS Snow Forecast

the biggest change I want to pass along at this time is the *potential* for more wet snow on Friday. I’m increasing my forecast for 1-3″ of heavy, wet snow that will accumulate mostly on colder surfaces.

Friday is a day where rain will change to wet snow and come down heavy at times as the wind increases. But the temperature will remain above freezing and all of this will occur during the day. There are some computer models suggesting we get closer to 6″ but I don’t see that happening at this point.

Further to the north and in elevated areas, more snow will accumulate – perhaps 3-6″ or more.

Timing: rain will start after 3 pm today. Rain should be light to moderate later this afternoon and the first part of this evening. Rain will then become heavy at times later tonight. Winds will pick up after midnight as well. Rain will gradually change to a wet snow Friday morning and continue off an on all day as winds increase.

What: Heavy rain, wind and wet snow on Friday. 1-2″ of rain. Winds gusting to 50-60 mph on Friday

I’ll continue to monitor and update as things change

28. February 2018 · Comments Off on Thursday into Friday Storm · Categories: spring, weather discussion · Tags:

Storm overview for Thursday into Friday

NWS snow forecast

Total rainfall forecast

My thoughts are as follows:

  • Rain starts late afternoon Thursday and becomes heavy at times Thursday evening and overnight
  • Rain could end as wet snow, especially north and west and elevated locations
  • Winds will be gusty
  • Snow could accumulate from a coating to 2″ mainly on colder surfaces. The exception to this will be further to the north and west and any elevated locations
  • There will be 1-2″ of rain which will result in small stream flooding since we’ve had so much rain recently. There’s potential for larger rivers to get close too
  • Precipitation should become more showery on Friday afternoon and end by Friday evening. It will remain windy with seasonable temperatures (which will seem cold to everyone since it’s been so warm recently)

Potential snow forecast

There are a few wildcards in this forecast. The Euro model above is forecasting 2-4″ of snow for most southern location in western New Jersey and 4-10″ of snow further to the north. This will have to be watched to see if this happen since the last storm over-performed. Some of this will be falling during the day on Friday which will be harder to accumulate except on colder surfaces

27. February 2018 · Comments Off on Late Week Rain & Wind Potential · Categories: Flash Floods, spring, weather discussion · Tags:

Current river flood status

How much rain until flash flooding takes place

Forecast rain amounts

Possible storm location

Get outside and enjoy a nice weather day today! Wednesday will also be dry but will have more clouds. Then rain rolls in later Thursday into Friday. Keeping an eye on this storm and impacts to western New Jersey

26. February 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Weather Briefing Feb 26 · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

5 Day Forecast

Another rainy weekend. Oh boy. Western New Jersey picked up over 1″ of rainfall. Let’s not hear any talk of a drought for a while 🙂

Once the morning clouds and fog burn off we should see some sunshine later and should have another above normal high temperature near 50. Tuesday and Wednesday look like very nice late February days as well with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 50’s.

Then our attention turns to increasing clouds on Thursday in what will be a rainy windy storm that will impact the area later Thursday through Friday. This will be near a full moon so some coastal flooding is also possible. This may end as a little wet snow in spots. Details as we get closer.

23. February 2018 · Comments Off on Mostly Cloudy, Damp Weekend · Categories: weather discussion · Tags:

5 Day Forecast

Well of course since the weekend is upon us that means cloudy damp weather. Perhaps we will see a little sun by Sunday afternoon. If not then the beginning of next week looks sunny and a little warmer!

Out greatest chance of steady rain will be later Saturday night into Sunday morning. We could see up to an inch of rain in spots.

Some areas to the far north today are still fighting with some freezing rain and drizzle with temperatures around freezing. Watch out for slippery spots if heading north today or tonight!

19. February 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Weather Briefing · Categories: weather discussion · Tags:

5 day forecast

Early risers this morning saw a nice sunrise to the east. This week will feature warm unsettled weather. In fact it could be record breaking warmth on Wednesday. Every day this week will be above or normal of the upper 30’s.

The snow melted yesterday almost as fast as it fell on Saturday night. Stewartsville has 3″ left this morning. Today will feature clouds and some light rain shower so perhaps not as much will melt today. What doesn’t melt today will get knocked down on Tuesday with sunshine and high’s in the 60’s!

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