Wednesday Hurricane Florence Update

12. September 2018 · Comments Off on Wednesday Hurricane Florence Update · Categories: Hurricane, weather discussion · Tags: ,

Key points for hurricane Florence

What has changed with hurricane Florence in the past 24 hours:

  • intensity remains about the same
  • forecast path has continued to shift to the south west
  • hurricane will slow down as it approaches the coast and possible linger for a couple of days
  • there could be multiple landfalls depending on how fast the storm slows down and future movements

Besides winds and tidal flooding, heavy rains are possible along the coast and inland from this hurricane.

Rain fall forecast

Risk of flash flooding from Florence

11 am Florence advisory

Hurricane warnings for the NC coast and northern half of the SC coast. Florence slowed down slightly to 15 mph with max winds still at 130. I don’t expect any significant, long lasting intensification at this point. New with this advisory is the predicted track further to the west and south.

Where Florence or its remnants go from there is still unclear. It could linger in the SE for days and possible make its way further to the north and east. If it does it will be much weaker, but likely still a rain maker. This will not happen until next week sometime

Tuesday Hurricane Florence Update

11. September 2018 · Comments Off on Tuesday Hurricane Florence Update · Categories: Hurricane, weather discussion · Tags: , ,

Executive summary on Hurricane Florence

Hurricane Florence remains a dangerous hurricane. In the last 24 hours not too much has changed. The hurricane has undergone an eyewall replacement cycle which is very common in major hurricanes. This results in a slight weakening of the storm but it’s still a cat 4 with 130 mph winds. Once the cycle is complete, it will most likely strengthen.

Official NHC track

The latest NHC track for the hurricane is above. The Euro model is now suggesting the hurricane may make landfall further south and west than shown above. This is a result of the high pressure to the north will remain and in fact strengthen and perhaps shift to the west a little more. If this happens look for the center to go closer to the SC/NC border and NC would receive more impact from the storm over Virginia.

Timing Florence

The above map shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds combined with their probability. For instance: central and southern NJ is in green and has an arrival time of Friday. But green represents a 5-10% chance of this happening with southern NJ 10-20% chance. If the storm does move slightly further SW, look for this to shift accordingly.

Storm surge flooding

Storm Surge

Low lying areas along and to the right of the forward moving hurricane will see a storm surge of water. The above map shows the storm surge watches and warnings along with how much potential flooding there will be and where.

Rainfall total

A land falling hurricane not only brings storm surge but a great deal of rainfall, even far inland. The above map shows the potential 1-7 day rainfall forecast. Note that eastern NC takes the brunt with heavy rains in eastern VA as well

Flooding potential

With all the potential rainfall brings the risk of flash flooding. The above map shows the risk areas for this to happen. Eastern NC has a moderate risk of flash flooding.

The ECMWF model is showing potential rainfall with Florence

Keep track of major hurricane Florence. Once the hurricane makes landfall it appears the forward motion of the storm will slow down and remain in the area as it weakens. Where it goes from there is still up for interpretation. If western New Jersey does get any impact, it will not be until next week sometime…

Monday Afternoon Hurricane Florence Update

10. September 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Afternoon Hurricane Florence Update · Categories: Hurricane, weather discussion · Tags: ,
Key summary for major hurricane Florence

Since this morning hurricane Florence has undergone significant strengthening. Florence has gone from a category 2 early this morning to currently a cat 4. This highest rating for hurricanes is cat 5.

5 day forecast track for Florence from NHC

The above graphic shows the five day forecast for the hurricane. As you can see the storm will stay to the south of western New Jersey. Once the storm makes landfall, or comes close the Carolina coast, steering winds will become weak so the future path of the storm is not carved in stone.

The above map shows the probabilities of an area seeing tropical storm winds. As you can see northern NJ does not have a color and southern NJ is dark green – with only a 5-10 % chance. This is until Saturday morning

The above map show the *earliest* reasonable arrival time of tropical storm force winds if they occur. Again northern NJ is not in the cone and southern NJ is Thursday afternoon. But keep in mind the other map that we only have a small chance of seeing winds this strong.

Even though the storm will be to our south, the component that is steering the storm to our south may also give us some winds. The combination of strong high pressure north of the storm and the hurricane will setup a pressure gradient, even quite a distance away from the storm. Where this sets up needs to be monitored.

Now looking only at hurricane force wind speeds, the probabilities are outlined in the above map.

The right front side of a storm typically sees not only the strongest winds but also a large amount of rain. In this case the winds will be blowing up against the Appalachian mountains. This will “wring out” even more rain from the hurricane. The above map shows the potential rainfall for days 4 and 5 from now.

Here is the day 6 and 7 forecast for rainfall. Needless to say a huge amount of inland flooding may occur over parts of North Carolina and the Virginia’s

we will continue to monitor the storm and report on it as we are able.

Hurricane Jose Stays Offshore; Dangerous Hurricane Maria Approaches Puerto Rico

19. September 2017 · Comments Off on Hurricane Jose Stays Offshore; Dangerous Hurricane Maria Approaches Puerto Rico · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: ,

Hurricane Jose forecast track

Hurricane Jose forecast track

 

With a Cat 1 hurricane sitting off the east coast you would think we would be a little more alarmed. Luckily Jose is behaving himself and transitioning to a nor’easter instead of a tropical system. Most of the impacts will be felt near the shore with rough surf and beach erosion.

 
Some light rain showers could move into portions of western New Jersey today, especially eastern sections. Above normal temperatures and humidity will continue for at least another week. We are 10 degrees above normal believe it or not!
 

Dangerous Cat 5 Hurricane Maria forecast track

Dangerous Cat 5 Hurricane Maria forecast track

 

Dangerous hurricane Maria is in the Caribbean. We will keep an eye on her after she passes over Puerto Rico. Current forecast is for her to gradually curve out to sea next week. She will continue to give us and the entire eastern seaboard rough surf conditions.

Tropical Troubles Continue

17. September 2017 · Comments Off on Tropical Troubles Continue · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags: ,

Hurricane Jose creates high surf at the Jersey shore

Hurricane Jose creates high surf at the Jersey shore

Has the pleasure to enjoy a top 10 summer beach day yesterday afternoon on Long Beach Island. Light wind, warm temperatures and a gentle breeze (and low crowds) made for a really nice late summer visit.

Western New Jersey will see more clouds than sun today into the new week along with warm and humid conditions. A scattered shower can not be ruled out.

Overnight computer guidance shifted Hurricane Jose a little more to the west. If this verifies, we will see some rain and somewhat breezy conditions here on Tuesday. The potential damage at the jersey shore will be much greater with sustained multi-day beach erosion and tropical storm force winds.

A computer model forecast on Hurricane Jose

A computer model forecast on Hurricane Jose

Jose may actually be slow to leave and stay around until the end of the week at least. If he is slow to leave the cooler waters at our latitude should help to weaken the storm and shouldn’t be much more than a low pressure system at the end of its life-cycle.

Soon to be Hurricane Maria forms

Soon to be Hurricane Maria forms

Maria is expected to form and strengthen rapidly and travel over the same areas impacted by Irma which is very unfortunate. She is forecast to become a major hurricane (cat 3) and travel up the east coast offshore to North Carolina area

No Way Jose!

15. September 2017 · Comments Off on No Way Jose! · Categories: Fall, Hurricane · Tags:

NHC Jose Forecast

Even though Jose is downgraded to a tropical storm, a little bit of strengthening is forecast to bring it back to a cat 1 hurricane in the days ahead. As you can see in the map above, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to ride up the east coast next week with the greatest threat to Cap Cod and New England.

What’s important here is the trend. The computer models have been trending further and further to the west with most of their runs. If this continues it could have more impact to the east coast.

At this point it doesn’t look like it will strengthen to a major hurricane but could cause issues none the less with beach erosion and flooding of low lying places. The american model had the storm much closer to coast!

Thunderstorms Late Tuesday Then Cooler and Soggy Weather

04. September 2017 · Comments Off on Thunderstorms Late Tuesday Then Cooler and Soggy Weather · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags: , ,

SPC Severe weather outlook for Tuesday

SPC Severe weather outlook for Tuesday

Happy Labor Day 2017 everyone! Well more seasonable weather has finally made an return appearance. It seems so hot today but the reality is 80 for a high is normal! More of the same tomorrow with humidity too. We need to be on the lookout for the potential for severe weather later on Tuesday into the evening and early night. The SPC has put most of western new jersey in the slight risk category.

The severe weather is a strong cold front that will be passing into our area that will make us on the cool side again. Unfortunately this front is going to stall not that far away from us and keep the chance for rain showers into the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. We look to dry out for Friday and Saturday at this point.

NHC 5 day Irma forecast

NHC 5 day Irma forecast

All eyes continue to keep an eye on major hurricane Irma. She has moved slightly south and west and now look to pose more of a threat to the islands and possibly northern Cuba as well. The US risk right now appears to be Florida.

Labor Day Sunday Weather Outlook

03. September 2017 · Comments Off on Labor Day Sunday Weather Outlook · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags: , ,

Overnight rainfall

Overnight rainfall

We are waking up to a soggy Sunday morning this Labor Day weekend. In Stewartsville 1.03″ of new rain was recorded in the past 24 hours ending at 8 am. This rain is due in part from the remnants of Hurricane Harvey.

 
The rain should taper off to showers by mid day but I can see more showers and perhaps even a brief thundershower later this afternoon as an upper level low passes through the area. Monday’s weather looks much nicer and warmer!
 
The last of the kids returning to school on Tuesday will be greeted by warm weather and another chance of soggy weather on Wednesday and Thursday.
 

NHC forecast for Hurricane Irma

NHC forecast for Hurricane Irma

We are still keeping an eye on Irma. You are probably hearing some social media reports of landfall here and landfall there. NO ONE and NO COMPUTER model at this point knows exactly where the hurricane is going to go. All of these are just tools and some of them are better than others. At this point this far out I take them as a grain of salt. It’s important to watch them for trends and to see when they trend to the same solution. If the hurricane makes it to our area it will not be until next Sunday or more likely the following week.

Hurricane Nicole Hits Bermuda

13. October 2016 · Comments Off on Hurricane Nicole Hits Bermuda · Categories: Fall, Hurricane · Tags:

Bermuda Webcam View Thursday Morning

Bermuda Webcam View Thursday Morning

Yes that is a picture above even though it looks like fog. There are some trees to the right along the edge and some more to the middle right.

Hurricane Nicole is bearing down on the island nation this morning. Overnight Nicole had strengthened to a category 4. Luckily it has weaken slightly to a cat 3.

The good new, if there is any for Bermuda, is Nicole appears to pass just to the east of the island. The right side of a hurricane is the strongest so hopefully this will help minimize damage. But its close enough that some part of the island may be impacted by the western edge of the eye wall.

Hurricane Matthew Weakens Slightly And Stays Offshore

07. October 2016 · Comments Off on Hurricane Matthew Weakens Slightly And Stays Offshore · Categories: Fall, Hurricane · Tags: ,

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So far it looks like things could have been a lot worse. My motto is prepare for the worse and hope for the best.

Based on recent reconnaissance flights into the hurricane, the maximum winds found were lower than 120 mph. But the NHC decided to maintain the major category strength. There is some good physiological logic in doing so. If the media starts advertising a weakening hurricane, people will be more likely to lower their guard and start doing unsafe things.

So far the highest wind gust on land I saw was just over 100 mph at Cape Canaveral. It was measured on a sensing station that was 50 meters in the air which is higher than the normal 10 meters that wind is typically measured.

Warnings have been discontinued for southern 1/3 of the state.

Later today and tomorrow the fun heads north to Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Even as the storm continues to weaken, it will still have damaging winds and drenching rains and storm surge flooding.

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