Winter Storm Details

07. February 2017 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Details · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,
Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Wednesday into Thursday

Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Wednesday into Thursday

Confidence has increased today that a storm will form on the arctic cold front that is forecast to pass through western New Jersey later tomorrow afternoon. It’s hard to talk about snow after how warm it is forecast to be tomorrow. High temperatures on Wednesday will get in the upper 50’s to around 60! High temperatures on Thursday will be near 30!

The above map is a forecast from one of the European computer weather models that you hear talked about in the news a great deal. As you can see it is forecasting a nice swath of accumulating snow from WV to Maine.

NWS Snowfall Forecast

NWS Snowfall Forecast

The NWS has issued a winter storm watch for late Wednesday into Thursday as previously communicated.

At this point I’m forecasting 4-8″ of snow for western New Jersey. Sadly this will be the biggest snow storm of our winter (so far?). There is potential for more in higher elevations to the north where up to 10″ may fall.

This will be a quick moving storm and most of the snow will be done by mid day on Thursday. There could be some snow showers Thursday afternoon but it will be cold and windy as the storm departs.

Winter Storm Watch for Thursday

07. February 2017 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Watch for Thursday · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: , 
...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through
Thursday afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter
Storm Watch...which is in effect from Wednesday evening through
Thursday afternoon.

* Locations...eastern Pennsylvania and central and northern New
  Jersey. 

* Hazard types...heavy snow.

* Snow accumulations...potential for 6 or more inches.

* Timing...a wintry mix will overspread the area from the west
  Wednesday night. The event will likely begin as snow north of
  the I-78 corridor. Elsewhere, rain will change over to snow from
  northwest to southeast late Wednesday night into Thursday
  morning. Sleet may mix briefly during the transition from rain
  to snow. The snow could be heavy at times late Wednesday night
  and Thursday morning before tapering off from west to east
  during the afternoon Thursday.

* Impacts...the heavy snow and poor visibilities at times could
  make travel dangerous. Significant impacts to the Thursday
  morning rush are likely.

* Winds...north 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Temperatures...upper 30s and lower 40s at the onset, falling
  into the lower 30s by early Thursday morning.

* Visibilities...1/2 mile or less at times in heavy snow.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor 
the latest forecasts.

Snowfall and ice accumulation forecast maps in addition to
experimental probabilistic snowfall information for the latest
event are available online at www.Weather.Gov/phi/winter

Rain On The Way Tuesday

07. February 2017 · Comments Off on Rain On The Way Tuesday · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:
Rain on the way the way to western New Jersey

Rain on the way the way to western New Jersey

Now that the threat of frozen precipitation has passed, we can see from the radar image above that an area of rain is moving in our direction from central PA. Look for periods of rain today that should give western New Jersey at least 1/2″ of much needed rain.

Snow potential for western New Jersey for late Wednesday into Thursday

Snow potential for western New Jersey for late Wednesday into Thursday

After the rain today, we get a very mild Wednesday with hi temperatures well up into the 50’s. After that an arctic cold front passes through western New Jersey bring back to normal temperatures. A storm will form on the cold front and bring the potential of a few inches of snow to our area.

The above map from the NWS is forecasting 2-4″ of snow for our area. At this point those numbers look good. There is a potential this system could go more to our south and give us less.

Something else that could limit the accumulation is the warm weather on Wednesday. The ground will be warm and the precipitation could start as rain in some areas before changing to snow. It’s harder to get snow to stick to a wet surface than a cold dry one (it melts until the temperature drops or the rate of precip increases).

Imagine our winter being defined by the biggest snow of the season being 2-4″!!

Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning Snow?

06. February 2017 · Comments Off on Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning Snow? · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

After the rain on Tuesday into Wednesday morning, then we need to turn our attention for the *potential* for some snow on late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A cold front will come through western New Jersey on Wednesday to end the rain. A storm system may form on the end of the front and move east along the front bringing western New Jersey some snow. How much and where still needs to be decided. A couple of days ago the possibility wasn’t even there but now more and more computer models are suggesting the *potential* for this. If it happens it looks like a few inches of snow for western New Jersey or a plow-able event.

Freezing Rain Advisory Early Tuesday Morning

06. February 2017 · Comments Off on Freezing Rain Advisory Early Tuesday Morning · Categories: winter · Tags:

The NWS has issues a freezing rain advisory for Warren, Sussex and Northampton counties from 1 am to 10 am Tuesday. I do not expect this to be widespread and primarily a threat for northern areas.

SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWTON, WASHINGTON, JIM THORPE,
STROUDSBURG, BETHLEHEM, AND EASTON
339 AM EST MON FEB 6 2017

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY
  AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
  TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, THEN CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN INTO
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT ICING MAY CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON
  UNTREATED ROADS, ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S, THEN RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND
  INTO THE 40S DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Super Weather Forecast

05. February 2017 · Comments Off on Super Weather Forecast · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

Some sections of western New Jersey may see some light snow or rain showers today. It’s a system passing to our north that will give us little or no accumulation. This was the system the computer models saw a week ago and thought it was going to be something more. The energy split and it turns out to be minor for us. So if you are traveling to or from a party today you should be fine.

Then we start the week of roller coaster weather. Monday will be a nice day with temperatures in the low 40’s. Then a nice rain maker moves into western New Jersey Tuesday into Wednesday for western New Jersey. If it gets here early enough on Tuesday, there could be a little freezing rain or sleet mixed in northern sections. Most of us will just see plain rain. But it will get warm with hi’s in the 50’s both days!

The the roller coaster continues with sharply colder weather Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the 30’s. Looking longer range it looks to be back to near 40 by next weekend.

Is winter over? More thoughts on that soon…

Stewartsville January 2017 Monthly Summary

01. February 2017 · Comments Off on Stewartsville January 2017 Monthly Summary · Categories: Monthly Summary · Tags: , ,
Stewartsville Monthly Weather Observation Summary
Jan-17
DAY MAX MIN MEAN PRECIP SNOW SOG COMMENTS
1 49 29 39.0 0.00
2 41 28 34.5 0.26 T
3 44 37 40.5 0.52
4 52 29 40.5 0.00
5 33 23 28.0 0.07 0.9
6 32 19 25.5 0.02 T
7 24 17 20.5 0.00 1.1 T
8 25 13 19.0 0.00 T 1
9 25 8 16.5 0.00 T
10 40 10 25.0 0.00 T
11 47 35 41.0 0.51 T
12 64 46 55.0 0.06
13 57 29 43.0 0.00
14 34 26 30.0 0.12 1.5
15 38 21 29.5 0.00 1.5
16 42 14 28.0 0.00
17 40 34 37.0 0.22
18 44 35 39.5 0.07
19 46 35 40.5 0.00
20 42 28 35.0 0.29
21 49 39 44.0 0.01
22 51 42 46.5 0.01
23 47 35 41.0 0.93
24 43 34 38.5 0.29 T T sleet
25 52 37 44.5 0.00
26 54 38 46.0 0.01
27 43 33 38.0 0.00 T
28 39 31 35.0 0.00 T T
29 42 29 35.5 0.00 T
30 38 24 31.0 0.00
31 32 21 26.5 0.02 0.3
3.41 3.80
6.70 Season Total
Extreme High 64.0 Date: 12-Jan
Extreme Low 8.0 Date: 9-Jan
Mean Max: 42.2
Mean Low: 28.4
Mean: 35.3
dabour@att.net
SOG = Snow On Ground measured at 7 AM EST
Elevation = 395′

Chilly End Of Week Into Weekend

01. February 2017 · Comments Off on Chilly End Of Week Into Weekend · Categories: winter · Tags: ,

Stewartsville received 0.4″ of snow yesterday. More snow fell to the extreme north.

Today will be a milder day with high temperatures in the mid 40’s. This should be the warmest day until sometime early next week. A cold front will move through later today and return us to seasonable cold if not a few degrees below normal into and through the weekend.

The chance of snow on Sunday looks minor at this time. there could be a few rain or snow showers today as well as tomorrow. Then it looks like a nice warm up next week with temperatures at least in the 40’s. But with the warm air brings rain.

Let’s see what the ground hog has to say tomorrow regarding the rest of the winter 🙂

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