| Stewartsville Monthly Weather Observation Summary | |||||||
| Jan-15 | |||||||
| DAY | MAX | MIN | MEAN | PRECIP | SNOW | SOG | COMMENTS |
| 1 | 40 | 16 | 28.0 | 0.00 | |||
| 2 | 42 | 26 | 34.0 | 0.00 | |||
| 3 | 38 | 21 | 29.5 | 0.76 | 0.5 | ||
| 4 | 49 | 36 | 42.5 | 0.18 | |||
| 5 | 45 | 19 | 32.0 | T | 0.4 | ||
| 6 | 22 | 14 | 18.0 | 0.02 | 1.2 | 0.4 | |
| 7 | 23 | 7 | 15.0 | T | 0.1 | 1 | |
| 8 | 19 | 5 | 12.0 | T | 0.2 | 0.5 | |
| 9 | 32 | 13 | 22.5 | 0.00 | 0.5 | ||
| 10 | 21 | 11 | 16.0 | 0.00 | T | ||
| 11 | 38 | 12 | 25.0 | T | T | T | |
| 12 | 37 | 31 | 34.0 | 0.42 | T | T | |
| 13 | 35 | 12 | 23.5 | 0.00 | T | ||
| 14 | 28 | 11 | 19.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 15 | 34 | 23 | 28.5 | 0.00 | T | ||
| 16 | 41 | 17 | 29.0 | T | T | T | snow showers |
| 17 | 32 | 11 | 21.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 18 | 43 | 23 | 33.0 | 0.89 | |||
| 19 | 41 | 32 | 36.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 20 | 41 | 26 | 33.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 21 | 33 | 19 | 26.0 | 0.02 | 0.3 | ||
| 22 | 40 | 25 | 32.5 | 0.00 | T | ||
| 23 | 39 | 19 | 29.0 | 0 | T | ||
| 24 | 39 | 31 | 35.0 | 0.65 | 6.5 | 6.5 | |
| 25 | 42 | 29 | 35.5 | 0.00 | 5 | ||
| 26 | 30 | 19 | 24.5 | 0.15 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 0.9″ new snow as of 7 am |
| 27 | 32 | 16 | 24.0 | 0.05 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 3.2″ from blizzard |
| 28 | 33 | 14 | 23.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 29 | 31 | 4 | 17.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 30 | 37 | 15 | 26.0 | 0.00 | |||
| 31 | 26 | 9 | 17.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 3.14 | 12.40 | ||||||
| 19.90 | Season Total | ||||||
| Extreme High | 49.0 | Date: | 4-Jan | ||||
| Extreme Low | 4.0 | Date: | 29-Jan | ||||
| Mean Max: | 34.9 | ||||||
| Mean Low: | 18.3 | ||||||
| Mean: | 26.6 | ||||||
We didn’t get quite as cold as I thought. There appears to have been a wind all night that stopped morning temperatures from bottoming out more. But it’s a cold morning anyway!. morning lows in western new jersey are in the mid single digits with some stations at or below zero just to our north.
The north trend mentioned yesterday continues and appears to be the answer for now. This will allow us to be on the warmer side of the artic front to our north initially. There could be some snow showers in the area as early as Saturday evening. But Saturday looks like a nice day with temperatures getting into the mid to perhaps upper 30’s. Then the first wave that will travel along the artic front on Sunday will track north of interstate 80. At this time Sunday doesn’t look to have as much precipitation until afternoon. Before the front slides south, we will be warm on Sunday and may approach 40 degrees if not a little warmer. So this may result in some rain showers.
On Sunday evening the artic front will push south slowly. As we turn colder, it now looks like we go from a rain to a freezing rain or sleet scenario. This looks to continue into Monday morning.
On Monday, a second wave of low pressure will push east. Since the artic front is so close to us, this disturbance will once again push warmer air aloft and give us a continued the threat of rain, freezing rain and sleet depending on temperature. Snow will fall north of I-80.
Happy National Weatherperson Day! For more information on the history of national weather person’s day follow this link.
Another artic cold front moved through western new jersey this morning by sunup and dropped about 1/2” of snow in the area. Temperatures did not rise too much after than and dropped for most of the day. By the evening commute temperatures are near 20 degrees! Tonight will be possibly the coldest night of the winter so far with low temperatures approaching zero.
Friday will be another cold day similar to this past Tuesday. Friday night won’t be quite as cold as tonight and the winds should diminish making it feel nicer. Saturday will have more clouds than sun but temperatures’ should rise to the mid to upper 30’s in our area.
Here’s the synopsis of what will happen Sunday into Tuesday. The artic front that passed through the area this morning will stall south of our area. Warmer air in advance of another storm system in the upper plains will bring in some precipitation on Sunday. This could arrive as early as Saturday night – timing to be determined. Sunday will feature a mix of snow, sleet and perhaps even rain. Since warm air will still be pumped in the upper layers of the atmosphere above us, we may even see rain in southern sections for a time. Then as the storm reaches the coast and intensifies, it will bring colder air into the area Sunday evening into Monday. It’s this time period that hold the greatest potential for our area to receive snow from this system.
One thing I want to point out is the heavier amounts of precipitation (snow) will fall to our north – primarily north of interstate 80. Computer model trends have been keeping it up there and in some cases moving it north – so this will be something to keep an eye on. If the precipitation moved too far north we will be warmer and receive less snow.
The situation should become clearer tomorrow.
Only far northern sections of western New Jersey saw any light snow or flurries this morning as an upper air disturbance passes north of the area. Once this clears skies should turn party sunny and warmer! We may approach 40 degrees this afternoon! Enjoy it while it lasts as colder weather is on the way. Another artic front will approach the area Thursday morning and bring with it a period of light snow or snow showers that should generally leave behind a dusting to 1”. Once again more should fall to our north as seen in the map above.
Thursday night/Friday morning will be very cold with temperatures in the low single digits. Friday will be a very cold winter day similar to yesterday. then we moderate a bit on Saturday. Then another system approaches the area Saturday night into Sunday. There are several possibilities as what will happen with the next system so more information will be posted as we get closer. the cold and active storm pattern looks to continue easily into next week.
Some clouds moved into the area towards morning and stopped temperatures from dropping into the single digits. Regardless western new jersey saw morning lows in the low teens. Tuesday will be a cold and chilly day with high temperatures remaining in the 20’s. Tonight we will see an increase in clouds as a weak clipper system passes well to our north. There is a chance northern section could see some flurries or snow showers that can leave a coating of snow.
Wednesday is shaping up to be a nice break in winter weather with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s! Good chance to get out and shovel/scrap any snow that got left behind from recent storms. Then a cold front will be approaching the area on Thursday morning that will give us some light snow. At this time it looks like only a coating to perhaps 1”. Then back in the freezer on Friday. Next potential for significant winter weather will be the second half of the weekend.
well the little fella in PA did see his shadow. How that can happen on a cloudy day is beyond me (TV lights?!). But as you can see in the graphic above compiled by the NWS, he’s skills are not the best.
Happy ground Hog Day everyone! Western New Jersey picked up about 3-4” of snow late last night and early this morning. Some amounts in far northern Sussex county are approaching 12” as they never changed over to sleet and freezing rain/rain like most of western NJ did.
Already at this hour temperatures are starting to fall below freezing and light rain has already changed back to sleet and some light snow. This is somewhat surprising and concerning to me that this happened already. Look for this to continue into the afternoon. This is because the coastal storm is now taking over and causing colder temperature to rush back into the region. this will cause any standing water or wet snow to freeze over fast this afternoon. In fact we may see a 10-15 degree temperature drop in 1 hour later this afternoon!
While I do not expect a lot of sleet and snow this afternoon some section may pick up a quick coating to around 1” in any heavier snow squalls that do develop. Look for temperatures to be in the single digits by sun up Tuesday morning.
Can you believe the ground hog actually saw his shadow? It must have been from all the TV lights! Six more weeks of winter!
Update on the storm. It has been snowing lightly in western New Jersey since about 5:30 pm this evening. As of 10:45 pm there is approximately 1” of new snow on the ground.
Based on observations and radar, my forecast is adjusted downward for 1-3” of snow before we start to mix with sleet and freezing rain (by 3am) and then change over to rain by 6-8am. The above map, a revised snowfall forecast by NWS, is supported by me. More snow will fall to the north and west and less to the south and east. As you go north, you will see 3-8” of snow before mixing.
I have limited time today due to photography and a big football game tonight 
. I’ll post an update this evening if warranted.
We are starting off our Sunday morning in western New Jersey already cloudy. Snow light snow that is probably not reaching the ground is already falling in portions of western PA. Look for some light snow or snow showers to arrive by late afternoon or early evening. It should be snowing everywhere before the “big game” is over.
We will start off as all snow. Snow will become moderate to perhaps heavy at times late at night into the early morning hours. This is when I expect most of the accumulating snow to fall. I agree with the NWS map above. For western New Jersey my forecast is 3-6” of snow. More snow will fall in northern sections where the snow does not mix as much with sleet and freezing rain.
A growing concern with the storm is an extended period of sleet and freezing rain. I expect them to start mixing in our area in the early morning hours on Monday with a complete changeover before sunrise. It’s not out of the question that some part of our area could changeover to all rain at some point. This will primarily be southern and eastern sections.
The above map is a forecasted ice amount from the NWS. I agree with the amounts here. Even though warmer air will be moving into the area and will be responsible for changing our snow to frozen precipitation, we have been cold lately and untreated surfaces will remain below freezing for a while if not the entire duration of the storm.
There is a chance the mixed precipitation could mix back with snow and perhaps change back to all snow on Monday before the storm ends.
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