03. August 2020 · Comments Off on What To Expect With Isaias And When · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags: , , ,

Very rare for our area Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for our entire area.

We also have a Flash Flood Watch for our entire region. I expect several flood warnings from the 3-5″ of expected rain on Tuesday

With Isaias track a little bit further west, there will be a chance for some severe weather in eastern sections. There’s even a chance for some weak tornadoes which is common on the right hand side of a tornado when near land.

As of 2 pm Monday, Isaias is south of SC and moving N at 13 mph. This will put the storm in our area starting Tuesday afternoon.

The main threat from this storm for our area is the heavy rain and potential flooding. 3-5″ of rain is forecast for our area. Some location could have locally 6+ inches of rain.

With so much rain in a short period of time leads to the potential of flooding. WE are in a moderate risk of excessive rainfall that can lead to flash flooding.

A look at the radar in the eastern US shows Isaias south of SC and moving north. You will also notice the rain in bands between where Isaias is right now and further north. This is a key point in our forecast for tonight and tomorrow.

Let’s talk wind. The above graphic shows winds gust tomorrow a 4 pm in knots. To convert to mph will be slightly higher than these numbers. This clearly shows there will be gusty winds tomorrow afternoon

I also wanted to show a graphic of wind direction for the same time tomorrow at 4pm. Notice that for many locations in western NJ our winds will be out of the N-NE. Further East they will have E or SE winds. Along the NJ coast they will have strong Southerly winds

Timeline

Tonight – look for rain showers to start mid to late evening in some areas. There is a chance for some scattered thunderstorms although this will be primarily south and east of us.

Overnight – periods of rain will gradually become heavier and steadier. Winds will also start to pick up as well.

Tuesday morning. – Periods of rain will continue to become heavier and steadier. From mid to late morning on the rain should be mostly heavy in nature. Winds will become quite gust. Avoid travel from mid morning on if possible.

Tuesday afternoon – this will be the height of the storm with bad conditions. Heavy rain and gusty winds will lead to some areas of flooding

Tuesday evening – the storm looks to start pulling away in early evening in southern locations. When the rain starts to taper off, the winds will remain gusty but slowly start to subide.

Tuesday night. The storm will continue to pull away out of our area. There could be a few rain showers early in the evening. Winds will slowly diminish.

30. May 2019 · Comments Off on Third Day In A Row With Severe Weather Potential · Categories: Flash Floods, thunderstorms · Tags: , , ,
SPC Severe weather potential for Thursday

In what’s the third day in a row, there is a potential for some severe convective weather in our area. What should be noted is that the risk for today is only slight where the last two days it was enhanced. So what does this mean? I don’t expect to see as many (or perhaps any) tornado warnings and just thunderstorms. Any strong thunderstorm can contain vivid lightning, downpours, gusty winds and hail.

The slight risk area is also further to the south and west as compared to yesterday. This may result in more of the storms in that area.

Flash Flood Watch this afternoon and evening

Since this is now the third day in a row some portions or western New Jersey have received heavy rain, a Flash Flood watch is in effect from 2 – 10 pm. These will be from the downpours associated with thunderstorms.

As always keep an eye to the sky. I will try and keep the facebook/twitter page updated as time permits.

29. May 2019 · Comments Off on Didn’t Get Any Severe Weather Yesterday? More Chances Today and Tomorrow · Categories: thunderstorms · Tags:
SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday

Tuesday featured strong storms and several tornado warnings in northern sections. There were also several tornado warnings in portions of PA in and around Berks county. Some locations received quarter sized hail!

Today looks to be round two. The only differences are the enhanced threat is more to the south but includes Hunterdon and the southern portion of Warren and all of the Lehigh Valley.

Time frame looks to be mid afternoon onwards.

There’s even a marginal risk of severe weather on Thursday.

Flash Flood Watch

With some areas receiving a lot of rain with the storms and more on the way, the NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for today.

18. April 2019 · Comments Off on Flash Flood Watch For Friday Night · Categories: flood watch · Tags: ,

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING…

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania,
including the following areas, in New Jersey, Hunterdon and
Warren. In Pennsylvania, Berks, Carbon, Delaware, Eastern
Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Monroe,
Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and
Western Montgomery.

* From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning

* Showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy, will move across
eastern Pennsylvania and far western New Jersey Friday
afternoon. A brief break in precipitation is expected Friday
evening before a second cluster of showers and thunderstorms
moves across the region late Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Pockets of one to two inches of rain can be expected
with amounts up to three inches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Flash Flood Watch means that there is the potential for flash
flooding which can be life-threatening. Heavy rain is expected to
occur over a short period of time. Rapidly rising flood waters
may quickly inundate roadways and areas of poor drainage. Streams
and creeks could leave their banks, flooding nearby properties.

Please monitor the forecast, especially if you live in a location
that is prone to flooding. Be prepared to take action if a flash
flood warning is issued for your area.

05. July 2018 · Comments Off on Flash Flood Watch · Categories: Flash Floods · Tags: ,

Flash Flood Watch Friday morning

259 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON…

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of northern Delaware, northeast
Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, including the
following areas, in northern Delaware, New Castle. In
northeast Maryland, Cecil. In New Jersey, Camden, Eastern
Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris,
Northwestern Burlington, Salem, Somerset, Warren, and Western
Monmouth. In Pennsylvania, Berks, Delaware, Eastern Chester,
Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Northampton,
Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and Western
Montgomery.

* From 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday afternoon

* A period of heavy rain and thunderstorms could result in
flooding issues early Friday morning through Friday afternoon.
Generally, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected, with localized
amounts of 3 to 4 inches possible.

* The heaviest rain is expected to fall during the morning hours,
impacting the morning commute across the area. Excessive
rainfall within a short period of time can lead to rapidly
rising water and flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and
along small creeks and streams.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Flash Flood Watch means that there is the potential for flash
flooding which can be life-threatening. Heavy rain is expected to
occur over a short period of time. Rapidly rising flood waters
may quickly inundate roadways and areas of poor drainage. Streams
and creeks could leave their banks, flooding nearby properties.

Please monitor the forecast, especially if you live in a location
that is prone to flooding. Be prepared to take action if a flash
flood warning is issued for your area.

27. July 2016 · Comments Off on Flash Flood Watch Thursday late into Friday · Categories: Flash Floods, Summer, thunderstorms · Tags:

So as usual, we go from hardly any rain at all to a whole bunch. The next system looks to deposit 1-1.5″ of rain to western New Jersey later Thursday into Friday.

I’ll post updates tomorrow.

...Flash Flood Watch in effect from Thursday evening through
Friday evening...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Delaware...northeast 
  Maryland...New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania...including 
  the following areas...in Delaware...Delaware beaches...inland 
  Sussex...Kent and New Castle. In northeast Maryland... 
  Caroline...Cecil...Kent MD...Queen Annes and Talbot. In New 
  Jersey...Atlantic...Atlantic coastal Cape May...Camden...Cape 
  May...coastal ocean...Cumberland...eastern Monmouth... 
  Gloucester...Hunterdon...Mercer...Middlesex...northwestern 
  Burlington...ocean...Salem...Somerset...southeastern 
  Burlington and western Monmouth. In southeast Pennsylvania... 
  Delaware...eastern Chester...eastern Montgomery...lower 
  Bucks...Philadelphia...upper Bucks...western Chester and 
  western Montgomery. 

* From Thursday evening through Friday evening

* periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected
  Thursday night into Friday. Some of the thunderstorms may
  contain torrential rainfall and result in a localized flash
  flood threat. 

* The axis of heaviest rain remains uncertain at this time.
  However, the potential for localized rainfall amounts of 2 or
  more inches in one hour will bring the risk for flash flooding
  particularly in urban areas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.
31. May 2015 · Comments Off on Flash Flood Watch Until 2 am Monday · Categories: Flash Floods, spring, thunderstorms · Tags:
8 pm Update: The rains have arrived! 1/2" and counting.

Also - Flash flood watch has been extended until 2 am Monday. - DD

SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
111 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
  PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN NEW
  JERSEY...MORRIS...SUSSEX AND WARREN. IN PENNSYLVANIA...
  CARBON...MONROE AND NORTHAMPTON.

* UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING

* LOCATIONS...A PORTION OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INCLUDING THE
  POCONOS AS WELL AS FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

* BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SWATHS OF
  EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL, POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES
  IN AN HOUR. IF THESE TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCUR, POCKETS OF
  DANGEROUS STREET AND HIGHWAY FLOODING WOULD RESULT SOMETIME THIS
  AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO A RAPID RISE OF WATER TO DANGEROUS LEVELS. FLASH FLOODING IS A
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
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