Very rare for our area Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for our entire area.
We also have a Flash Flood Watch for our entire region. I expect several flood warnings from the 3-5″ of expected rain on Tuesday
With Isaias track a little bit further west, there will be a chance for some severe weather in eastern sections. There’s even a chance for some weak tornadoes which is common on the right hand side of a tornado when near land.
As of 2 pm Monday, Isaias is south of SC and moving N at 13 mph. This will put the storm in our area starting Tuesday afternoon.
The main threat from this storm for our area is the heavy rain and potential flooding. 3-5″ of rain is forecast for our area. Some location could have locally 6+ inches of rain.
With so much rain in a short period of time leads to the potential of flooding. WE are in a moderate risk of excessive rainfall that can lead to flash flooding.
A look at the radar in the eastern US shows Isaias south of SC and moving north. You will also notice the rain in bands between where Isaias is right now and further north. This is a key point in our forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
Let’s talk wind. The above graphic shows winds gust tomorrow a 4 pm in knots. To convert to mph will be slightly higher than these numbers. This clearly shows there will be gusty winds tomorrow afternoon
I also wanted to show a graphic of wind direction for the same time tomorrow at 4pm. Notice that for many locations in western NJ our winds will be out of the N-NE. Further East they will have E or SE winds. Along the NJ coast they will have strong Southerly winds
Timeline
Tonight – look for rain showers to start mid to late evening in some areas. There is a chance for some scattered thunderstorms although this will be primarily south and east of us.
Overnight – periods of rain will gradually become heavier and steadier. Winds will also start to pick up as well.
Tuesday morning. – Periods of rain will continue to become heavier and steadier. From mid to late morning on the rain should be mostly heavy in nature. Winds will become quite gust. Avoid travel from mid morning on if possible.
Tuesday afternoon – this will be the height of the storm with bad conditions. Heavy rain and gusty winds will lead to some areas of flooding
Tuesday evening – the storm looks to start pulling away in early evening in southern locations. When the rain starts to taper off, the winds will remain gusty but slowly start to subide.
Tuesday night. The storm will continue to pull away out of our area. There could be a few rain showers early in the evening. Winds will slowly diminish.
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