Welcome To Early Spring

07. March 2022 · Comments Off on Welcome To Early Spring · Categories: thunderstorms, weather forecast · Tags: , ,
Slight risk of severe weather Monday

An active weather day is on the way for Monday courtesy of the very mild weather we are experiencing. All the warm weather is going to lead to the potential for some severe weather as a cold front approaches the area this evening. The biggest threat will be strong gusty winds.

A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms is expected to cross the area late this afternoon into this evening.

Wind advisory later today

Speaking of strong winds, a wind advisory will be in effect this afternoon into this evening. Look for windy SW winds this afternoon that could gust up to 50 mph. When the front goes through this evening, winds will shift into the NW and continue to gust to 50 mph. Look for even high wind gusts if you receive a strong storm!

March is known for its winds and wild temperature swings. Much cooler and more seasonable weather will return starting Tuesday. We could even see some wet snow flakes on Wednesday!

Spring fans remember that this weekend is when we Spring forward our clocks.

Post Thanksgiving Cold Rain On The Way

23. November 2018 · Comments Off on Post Thanksgiving Cold Rain On The Way · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags:

7 Day NWS forecast

Hopefully everyone had a safe, warm and Happy Thanksgiving!

Cold morning today with a record low temperature of 9 f in Stewartsville. Some places further to the north were closer to 0! Way too cold for NOvember!

Warmer air is heading into western New Jersey. Unfortunately it will be accompanied by more rain that we don’t need. We will have another mostly clear and calm night that will allow temperatures to drop but not be as cold as this morning.

Any early morning sunshine on Saturday will be replaced with increasing clouds and rain arriving as early as midday. In fact if it comes in early, there’s a chance it could be freezing rain. I don’t expect this to be widespread at this time and will apply mostly to locations to our west. The rain will be heavy at times Saturday evening and night as we should expect another 1-1.25″ of rain. The rain should be over early Sunday morning and SUnday will turn into a nice day, but still cool for this time of year.

Looking ahead more rain Monday afternoon and chilly temperatures continue for most of the upcoming week. At least it feels like the holiday season!

Monday Weather Briefing Feb 26

26. February 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Weather Briefing Feb 26 · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

5 Day Forecast

Another rainy weekend. Oh boy. Western New Jersey picked up over 1″ of rainfall. Let’s not hear any talk of a drought for a while 🙂

Once the morning clouds and fog burn off we should see some sunshine later and should have another above normal high temperature near 50. Tuesday and Wednesday look like very nice late February days as well with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 50’s.

Then our attention turns to increasing clouds on Thursday in what will be a rainy windy storm that will impact the area later Thursday through Friday. This will be near a full moon so some coastal flooding is also possible. This may end as a little wet snow in spots. Details as we get closer.

Tuesday Weather Update On Next Storm

06. February 2018 · Comments Off on Tuesday Weather Update On Next Storm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

NWS Snow Total Wednesday

NWS Snow Total Wednesday

There are some very light flurries falling in part of western New Jersey this morning that will not amount to much if anything. Partly sunny skies should return later today and we will inch above freezing with a high in the mid 30’s.

Clouds will increase tonight and western New Jersey will see snow arriving in the 5-7 am time-frame. This storm will be similar to Sunday’s except we should get more snow on the front-end. Warmer air will be transported into the storm and the snow will mix with, then change to sleet and eventually rain as the day goes on. How fast the mix starts to happen will impact who gets how much snow. Typically southern areas see the mix and changeover first and then it moves slowly to the north and west.

My forecast for snow is 1-3″ for southern locations of western New Jersey and 2-4″ further north close to I-80 with some 3-6″ possible further to the north and west.

Ice forecast for Wednesday

Ice forecast for Wednesday

Since Wednesday is a snow to sleet/freezing rain then rain, we need to think about ice accumulation potential. The map above shows nicely how there is more risk for this happening further to the north but the entire area will see at least some sleet and possibly freezing rain before the changeover to plain rain.

As of mid Tuesday morning, the only NWS watch, warning or advisory out for our area is to the north in Sussex county. I do expect a winter weather advisory to get issued at least for most of western New Jersey at some point today for Wednesday

Thursday Weather Briefing

01. February 2018 · Comments Off on Thursday Weather Briefing · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

5 Day Forecast

5 Day Forecast

Skies will remain cloudy this Thursday with warmer temperatures today. Look for high temperatures in the mid 40’s. If you have anything outdoors to do today is the time before showers arrive later this afternoon and much colder temperatures are forecast for Friday and Saturday.

NWS snow forecast for Friday morning

NWS snow forecast for Friday morning

Tonight’s rain shower will amount to less than 1/4″ of an inch. If the colder air arrives fast enough, it may turn the rain over to some snow before it ends. I’m not expecting much if any accumulation. My forecast is for a coating to 1″

Friday will be a much colder and windy day. Tomorrow may be one of those days where the temperature does not rise much if any and will start to fall further in the afternoon with gusty winds. Saturday will be cold as well but at least the winds will let up some.

Sunday into Monday snow to rain

Sunday into Monday snow to rain

Then we turn our attention to Sunday as a storm system looks to impact our area. At this point it looks like a snow to rain event as warmer air will get pulled into our area. Snow could start Sunday morning before changing over to rain by around kickoff time or certainly while the game is being played. There could be an accumulation of snow before the changeover. Too early to forecast today but it may be enough to shovel in spots, especially further north and west. Updates as we get closer.

Wednesday Weather Briefing

31. January 2018 · Comments Off on Wednesday Weather Briefing · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast · Tags:

5 Day forecast

5 Day forecast

Cold night last night with early morning temperatures in the low teens throughout western New Jersey. Today should be mostly cloudy and on the cold side with high temperatures near 30. Temperatures tonight won’t be as cold with the clouds around. Thursday will be another cloudy day with periods of rain arriving. Colder air will be on the march in on the tail end of the rain and we could see a changeover to snow before ending.

NWS Snow Forecast

NWS Snow Forecast for Friday

I know this sounds like a broken record but my forecast for the rain ending as snow early on Friday morning is for another coating to 1″ for western New Jersey. Could be slightly more in northern areas that will changeover sooner.

Cold Friday and Saturday will be in store and then our next chance of precipitation will be late Saturday into Sunday. Right now it looks like a wintry mix. Details as we get closer.

Monday Morning Weather Outlook

22. January 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Morning Weather Outlook · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

5 Day forecast for western New Jersey

5 Day forecast for western New Jersey

First off congrats to all Eagles fan on the victory last night! Onto the Super Bowl!

Our weather this Monday morning while a little on the dreary side at least its on the warm side. We will see some rain showers today but most of the rain will hold off until late tonight. 36 is our average high temperatures this time of year but we will be above that today in the upper 40’s.

Rush hour Tuesday morning will be wet as periods of rain will be impacting our area. I expect to see about 1/2″ of rain in western New Jersey with some locations receiving up to 1″. We are still below normal on rain fall so it’s all welcome! With the rain we will have a very warm day tomorrow with high temperatures in the upper 50’s.

Cooler weather moves back in for Wednesday thru Friday but nothing too cold. Looking longer range we warm up for next weekend with a chance of rain on Sunday. Colder weather looks to return at some point in the first half of February.

Update on Snow for Tonight and Wednesday AM

16. January 2018 · Comments Off on Update on Snow for Tonight and Wednesday AM · Categories: snow, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

NWS Radar 2:45 pm

NWS Radar 2:45 pm

The amount of the early morning snow into western New Jersey was more than I anticipated. I was expecting just some flurries during the day on Tuesday with the precipitation arriving later as per my blog post late yesterday. Stewartsville received 0.1″ of new snow which was just enough to impact the morning commute. More snow was received north and west into PA. The above radar show the snow, which is still on the light side, just outside of western New Jersey with some of it now falling in northern Warren and Sussex counties. This snow will begin to move, albeit slowly, to the south and east overnight.

NWS Snow forecast

NWS Snow forecast

Weather computer models today are suggesting the snow arrival time will be anywhere from 8 pm to midnight from NW to SE. They are also suggesting the snow could be heavier to the north, especially north of I-80 as seen in the above graphic. My forecast is still for 2-4″ in western New Jersey, especially southern and eastern areas with 4-8″ further to the north.

In southern and eastern locations its possible the snow may start off as or be mixed with rain for a while in the beginning. As you might have noticed it has gone above freezing in some locations of western New Jersey today. As of right now it’s 33 degrees in Stewartsville. Once nightfall occurs and the precipitation arrives that will be enough to cool down the atmosphere to change to all snow.

The NWS has issued a winter storm warning for Sussex county for the additional snow forecast.

Increasing Clouds Today Rain Thursday Into Friday

10. January 2018 · Comments Off on Increasing Clouds Today Rain Thursday Into Friday · Categories: weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags:

NWS 5 Day Forecast

NWS 5 Day Forecast

Yesterday was a much needed break in the cold with high temperatures approaching the mid 40’s in many locations. A high of 44 in Stewartsville. While running some errands around mid day I caught myself walking into a store with my coat not even zipped up!

Today will feature increasing clouds ahead of our next system. High temperatures should be close to normal with mid to upper 30’s expected. Tonight will not be as cold as this morning. Thursday will be a cloudy day with rain arriving later in the day. The rain should continue off and on into Saturday morning. The positive sides are we need the rain and Friday should be very warm with high temperatures approaching near 60 degrees! We should also get at least 1″ of rain over the 2 day stretch. Again this is much needed rain let’s just hope it doesn’t cause too much flooding from melting snow.

Don’t put away the winter clothes just yet. We will turn sharply colder Saturday afternoon and evening and that will continue into early next week. But the cold will not be as harsh as the last outbreak nor as windy but it will remind us it still is January.

Long range later next week looks to moderate a little back to normal. There may be a fast moving clipper system Tuesday/Wednesday of next week which could give us some light snow.

Another Snow To Rain on Thursday

28. December 2016 · Comments Off on Another Snow To Rain on Thursday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

As has been the pattern with storms so far this cold season, we will get another snow to rain event on Thursday. Look for light snow to overspread western New Jersey around rush hour time – certainly by mid morning. Then, as has been the case this year, the snow will start mixing with and then change to rain. The difference this time I don’t expect much in the way of sleet or freezing rain. There is not a lot of colder air near the surface.

As far as accumulation I expect a coating to 1″ for most areas of southern Warren and Hunterdon counties with a little bit more further to the north as well as in the Poconos.

This will turn into a very big storm – for northeastern New England. Some areas will receive over a foot of snow from this storm!

Much colder air will usher in as the storm passes. Friday will be quite windy and there could be some snow squalls.

The next event to keep an eye on in New Years Eve into New Years Day. More on that as we get closer.

 

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