Wednesday Morning Storm Update

21. March 2018 · Comments Off on Wednesday Morning Storm Update · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

Snow falls on some spring bulbs in Stewartsville, NJ

Everything is still on track this Wednesday morning. Stewartsville has received 1.3″ of snow as of 7:30 am. Look for snow to fall at various rates today. During lighter periods of snow during mid day (if there are any) you might notice road conditions improving a little. Where these heavy snow bands setup will determine how gets the most snow.

My forecast of 4-8″ is still on track with more to the east. Some areas could locally receive more.

NWS Snow Forecast

Winter Storm Warning remains in effect. Winds will become gusty later today and tonight into Thursday morning.

Welcome to Spring 2018!

Welcome To Spring Snowstorm

20. March 2018 · Comments Off on Welcome To Spring Snowstorm · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

Experimental Storm Severity Index

All of western New Jersey is in the bulls eye of the next (fourth) major storm in the month of March. Has kismet that it starts on the official start of Spring!

In looking at the potential severity of this storm in the above experimental graphic from the NWS, you can see most of western New Jersey is in the Major category.

Snow start timing

Here is a graphic showing the start time of the precipitation. Keep in mind that today, Tuesday the precipitation will be light compared to tomorrow. There’s also a good chance the precipitation today will be a wintry mix of snow, sleet and rain. As the second storm approaches on Wednesday is when we will see predominately snow.

NWS Snow Forecast

The above graphic does a nice job of showing how much snow for western New Jersey is forecast. Note that more snow is forecast to the south and east.

This will be once again one of those storms that features:

  • heavy wet snow
  • snow accumulating on colder surfaces more than roads
  • snow may not accumulate on roads during the day until heavy snow falls

Winds will also become gusty as Wednesday progresses. Power issues are possible from either the wind, wet snow or both.

Monday Weather Briefing March 19th, 2018

19. March 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Weather Briefing March 19th, 2018 · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion · Tags: ,

Storm severity index

The calendar may say first day of Spring is tomorrow, March 20th but it certainly won’t feel like it. Today will start off with blue skies but cold conditions. Clouds will increase later on.

NWS 5 day forecast

There will be periods of wet snow this week. The first will happen on Tuesday afternoon. This will be mostly to our south and be a minor event. The second event will warrant a closer eye. The second one will take place on Wednesday. But since most of that will be falling during the day in mid to late March, anything that does accumulate will only be on colder surfaces.

NWS snow forecast

Above is the NWS snow forecast. As you can see most of it is to our south and should be primarily on colder, non-paved surfaces.

The rest of the week looks chilly (normal high temperatures now should be 50) with another chance of precip on Saturday. I know many Easter related activities start on this coming weekend so hopefully it will be minor or at night and be wet and not white!

Looking long term the rest of the month looks to remain chilly. April should bring warmer temperatures. Let’s just hope we don’t go from winter to summer!

Friday Storm Recap

03. March 2018 · Comments Off on Friday Storm Recap · Categories: snow, spring · Tags:

Snow on bulbs in Stewartsville.

I think its safe to say this storm was another over-producer. 3.1″ of very wet snow was recorded in Stewartsville. I never had to shovel most of my driveway – only the part that was in the shade of the house.

Here are some other snow totals:

...Warren County...
    Oxford                 6.0   415 PM  3/02  Social Media            
    Allamuchy              6.0   748 PM  3/02  Trained Spotter         
    Hackettstown           5.0   540 PM  3/02  Trained Spotter
...Northampton County...
    Hellertown             6.0   400 PM  3/02  Social Media            
    Bethlehem              5.6   330 PM  3/02  Trained Spotter         
    Cherry Hill            5.5  1020 PM  3/02  Trained Spotter         
    Easton                 4.3   700 PM  3/02  Social Media            
    Martins Creek          3.2   700 PM  3/02  Trained Spotter

Winter Weather Advisory Issued Friday into early Saturday

01. March 2018 · Comments Off on Winter Weather Advisory Issued Friday into early Saturday · Categories: spring, weather discussion, winter · Tags:

NWS Snow Forecast

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

NJZ007-008-PAZ062-020845-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0011.180302T1600Z-180303T0900Z/
Warren-Morris-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Bethlehem,
and Easton
341 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches at higher elevations above 800 feet and 2 inches or less
  in the valleys are expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Morris counties. In
  Pennsylvania, Northampton county.

* WHEN...Rain will transition to snow initially along the high-
  elevation ridges around midday Friday and then closer to mid
  afternoon in the valleys. The snow will be heavy at times Friday
  afternoon and evening with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour
  possible. The snow is expected to end from west to east
  overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on very difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute on Friday. The combination
  of strong northwest winds gusting to 50 mph and heavy snow
  could create near-blizzard conditions with visibilities below
  one-half mile at times. The heavy, wet nature of the snow and
  strong winds will likely cause damage to trees and power lines
  that will lead to scattered power outages, especially at higher
  elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Flood Watch

28. February 2018 · Comments Off on Flood Watch · Categories: flood watch, spring · Tags:

Flood Watch

345 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania,
  including the following areas, in New Jersey, Camden, Coastal
  Ocean, Eastern Monmouth, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris,
  Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Somerset, Southeastern
  Burlington, Warren, and Western Monmouth. In Pennsylvania,
  Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Northampton,
  Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, and Western Montgomery.

* From late Thursday night through late Friday night

* Rain is expected to develop Thursday afternoon and persists
  through all of Friday and maybe into Friday night. The heaviest
  rain is expected across the northern half of New Jersey and
  east-central Pennsylvania. This includes the Raritan and
  Passaic basins in New jersey and portions of the Delaware Basin.

* As the rain falls later on Thursday and into Friday, low-lying
  and poor drainage flooding is likely where the heaviest rain
  occurs. In addition, as this rainfall runs off into larger
  streams and rivers, flooding will also be possible Friday night
  into Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Thursday into Friday Storm

28. February 2018 · Comments Off on Thursday into Friday Storm · Categories: spring, weather discussion · Tags:

Storm overview for Thursday into Friday

NWS snow forecast

Total rainfall forecast

My thoughts are as follows:

  • Rain starts late afternoon Thursday and becomes heavy at times Thursday evening and overnight
  • Rain could end as wet snow, especially north and west and elevated locations
  • Winds will be gusty
  • Snow could accumulate from a coating to 2″ mainly on colder surfaces. The exception to this will be further to the north and west and any elevated locations
  • There will be 1-2″ of rain which will result in small stream flooding since we’ve had so much rain recently. There’s potential for larger rivers to get close too
  • Precipitation should become more showery on Friday afternoon and end by Friday evening. It will remain windy with seasonable temperatures (which will seem cold to everyone since it’s been so warm recently)

Potential snow forecast

There are a few wildcards in this forecast. The Euro model above is forecasting 2-4″ of snow for most southern location in western New Jersey and 4-10″ of snow further to the north. This will have to be watched to see if this happen since the last storm over-performed. Some of this will be falling during the day on Friday which will be harder to accumulate except on colder surfaces

Late Week Rain & Wind Potential

27. February 2018 · Comments Off on Late Week Rain & Wind Potential · Categories: Flash Floods, spring, weather discussion · Tags:

Current river flood status

How much rain until flash flooding takes place

Forecast rain amounts

Possible storm location

Get outside and enjoy a nice weather day today! Wednesday will also be dry but will have more clouds. Then rain rolls in later Thursday into Friday. Keeping an eye on this storm and impacts to western New Jersey

Record Warm Wednesday; Showers Approaching

21. February 2018 · Comments Off on Record Warm Wednesday; Showers Approaching · Categories: spring · Tags:

NWS radar shows rain showers approaching

After a beautify and practically hot afternoon in February showers are approaching the area. These showers are preceding a cold front that will bring sharply colder weather on Thursday.

Taste of Spring After Fog

20. February 2018 · Comments Off on Taste of Spring After Fog · Categories: spring · Tags: ,

Surface map of the east coast

Western New Jersey is seeing plenty of fog this morning. This is due to the warmer air arriving on top of the snow covered ground. Once the sun comes out or the snow melts we will see much warmer temperatures today and tomorrow. Today the 60’s may not show up until that happens but hopefully we will see 50’s by mid-day

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