Storm Winding Down

09. February 2017 · Comments Off on Storm Winding Down · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

The snow is just about ended in Stewartsville as of 9:45. 6.4″ was measured around 9:30 and I only expect a few tenths additional if any.

The light blue you still see on the radar to our west is very light snow or flurries. I’m hearing some reports of breaks in the clouds in eastern PA already so conditions should improve from this point forward.

What won’t improve too much today is the temperature and wind. I expect the temperature to level off a little but then start dropping again later today. So anything that does melt will refreeze tonight. Wind will pick up and be gusty out of the NW.

I’m pretty satisfied with my 4-8″ forecast!

Early Morning Update

09. February 2017 · Comments Off on Early Morning Update · Categories: snow · Tags:

Surprise, surprise it’s snowing out! 2.3″ was measured in Stewartsville as of 5:30 am. Moderate snow is falling as is the temperature, currently at 30.7 and falling.

Here is the radar as of 5:30 am. Notice the lighter amounts of snow near Reading. I didn’t expect to see it getting this light this early. I think we will only see the heaviest accumulating snow until 8 or 9 am. After that it will be lighter and not accumulate as much.

At this point I’m happy with my 4-8″ snow forecast for western New Jersey.

Storm Update Wednesday Evening

08. February 2017 · Comments Off on Storm Update Wednesday Evening · Categories: snow · Tags: ,
Radar shows snow approaching from western PA

Radar shows snow approaching from western PA

The snow in the western third of PA will continue moving to the east and should arrive in western NJ by 1- 3 am.

Short range computer model forecast

Short range computer model forecast

As we move within 24 hours of an event, meteorologists change their focus to short range computer models. These tools are updated frequently instead of 6 or 12 hours but their forecast duration is 24 hours or less.

The above model shows western New Jersey will on track for a 4-8″ snow fall.

Move of the steadiest and heaviest snow should be done by mid day. This will be a fast moving storm. The peak period will be from about 5 am until 10 am.

Winter Storm Warning Thursday

08. February 2017 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Warning Thursday · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:
Snow totals for Thursday

Snow totals for Thursday

As expected the NWS has changed the Watch to a Warning that is in effect from midnight tonight until 4 pm Thursday. The brunt of the storm appears to be 4 am – 10 am.

The NWS is forecasting 6-10″ of snow. At this point I’m sticking with my 4-8″ forecast. Higher amounts are certainly possible if everything comes into place. Snow should start tapering off to snow showers around mid day Thursday which will allow crews to get out and clean up.

Here are the details in the Winter Storm Warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
948 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-090300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0002.170209T0500Z-170209T2100Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Mercer-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton,
Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton,
Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville,
Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
948 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches.

* LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and central and northern New
  Jersey.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow.

* VISIBILITIES...One quarter mile or less at times.

* TIMING...A wintry mix will overspread the area from the west
  near midnight reaching the northern New Jersey coast by 4 am.
  The event will likely begin as snow north of the I-78
  corridor. Elsewhere, rain will change over to snow from
  northwest to southeast into early Thursday morning. Sleet may
  mix in briefly during the transition from rain to snow. The
  snow likely will be heavy for a time Thursday morning before
  tapering off quickly from west to east during midday or the
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads potentially
  impassable for several hours during the worst part of the
  storm which should be 5 am to 10 am. There may be widespread
  power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and
  power lines. The threat for power outages will be less where
  temperatures are mostly below 30 degrees during the snow.

* WINDS...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* TEMPERATURES...falling into the 20s over most of this area
  during the snow before a slight recovery in the afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring.  Significant amounts of
snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in
an emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...
food...and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Report snow and ice accumulation to the National Weather Service
by calling our trained spotter line...posting to the NWS Mount
Holly Facebook page...or using Twitter.

Snowfall and ice accumulation forecast maps in addition to
experimental probabilistic snowfall information for the latest
event are available online at www.weather.gov/phi/winter

Winter Storm Details

07. February 2017 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Details · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: ,
Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Wednesday into Thursday

Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Wednesday into Thursday

Confidence has increased today that a storm will form on the arctic cold front that is forecast to pass through western New Jersey later tomorrow afternoon. It’s hard to talk about snow after how warm it is forecast to be tomorrow. High temperatures on Wednesday will get in the upper 50’s to around 60! High temperatures on Thursday will be near 30!

The above map is a forecast from one of the European computer weather models that you hear talked about in the news a great deal. As you can see it is forecasting a nice swath of accumulating snow from WV to Maine.

NWS Snowfall Forecast

NWS Snowfall Forecast

The NWS has issued a winter storm watch for late Wednesday into Thursday as previously communicated.

At this point I’m forecasting 4-8″ of snow for western New Jersey. Sadly this will be the biggest snow storm of our winter (so far?). There is potential for more in higher elevations to the north where up to 10″ may fall.

This will be a quick moving storm and most of the snow will be done by mid day on Thursday. There could be some snow showers Thursday afternoon but it will be cold and windy as the storm departs.

Winter Storm Watch for Thursday

07. February 2017 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Watch for Thursday · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: , 
...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through
Thursday afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter
Storm Watch...which is in effect from Wednesday evening through
Thursday afternoon.

* Locations...eastern Pennsylvania and central and northern New
  Jersey. 

* Hazard types...heavy snow.

* Snow accumulations...potential for 6 or more inches.

* Timing...a wintry mix will overspread the area from the west
  Wednesday night. The event will likely begin as snow north of
  the I-78 corridor. Elsewhere, rain will change over to snow from
  northwest to southeast late Wednesday night into Thursday
  morning. Sleet may mix briefly during the transition from rain
  to snow. The snow could be heavy at times late Wednesday night
  and Thursday morning before tapering off from west to east
  during the afternoon Thursday.

* Impacts...the heavy snow and poor visibilities at times could
  make travel dangerous. Significant impacts to the Thursday
  morning rush are likely.

* Winds...north 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Temperatures...upper 30s and lower 40s at the onset, falling
  into the lower 30s by early Thursday morning.

* Visibilities...1/2 mile or less at times in heavy snow.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor 
the latest forecasts.

Snowfall and ice accumulation forecast maps in addition to
experimental probabilistic snowfall information for the latest
event are available online at www.Weather.Gov/phi/winter

Rain On The Way Tuesday

07. February 2017 · Comments Off on Rain On The Way Tuesday · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:
Rain on the way the way to western New Jersey

Rain on the way the way to western New Jersey

Now that the threat of frozen precipitation has passed, we can see from the radar image above that an area of rain is moving in our direction from central PA. Look for periods of rain today that should give western New Jersey at least 1/2″ of much needed rain.

Snow potential for western New Jersey for late Wednesday into Thursday

Snow potential for western New Jersey for late Wednesday into Thursday

After the rain today, we get a very mild Wednesday with hi temperatures well up into the 50’s. After that an arctic cold front passes through western New Jersey bring back to normal temperatures. A storm will form on the cold front and bring the potential of a few inches of snow to our area.

The above map from the NWS is forecasting 2-4″ of snow for our area. At this point those numbers look good. There is a potential this system could go more to our south and give us less.

Something else that could limit the accumulation is the warm weather on Wednesday. The ground will be warm and the precipitation could start as rain in some areas before changing to snow. It’s harder to get snow to stick to a wet surface than a cold dry one (it melts until the temperature drops or the rate of precip increases).

Imagine our winter being defined by the biggest snow of the season being 2-4″!!

Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning Snow?

06. February 2017 · Comments Off on Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning Snow? · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

After the rain on Tuesday into Wednesday morning, then we need to turn our attention for the *potential* for some snow on late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A cold front will come through western New Jersey on Wednesday to end the rain. A storm system may form on the end of the front and move east along the front bringing western New Jersey some snow. How much and where still needs to be decided. A couple of days ago the possibility wasn’t even there but now more and more computer models are suggesting the *potential* for this. If it happens it looks like a few inches of snow for western New Jersey or a plow-able event.

Super Weather Forecast

05. February 2017 · Comments Off on Super Weather Forecast · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

Some sections of western New Jersey may see some light snow or rain showers today. It’s a system passing to our north that will give us little or no accumulation. This was the system the computer models saw a week ago and thought it was going to be something more. The energy split and it turns out to be minor for us. So if you are traveling to or from a party today you should be fine.

Then we start the week of roller coaster weather. Monday will be a nice day with temperatures in the low 40’s. Then a nice rain maker moves into western New Jersey Tuesday into Wednesday for western New Jersey. If it gets here early enough on Tuesday, there could be a little freezing rain or sleet mixed in northern sections. Most of us will just see plain rain. But it will get warm with hi’s in the 50’s both days!

The the roller coaster continues with sharply colder weather Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the 30’s. Looking longer range it looks to be back to near 40 by next weekend.

Is winter over? More thoughts on that soon…

Clipper To Bring Snow Tuesday

30. January 2017 · Comments Off on Clipper To Bring Snow Tuesday · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

A fast moving storm will bring light snow to northern New Jersey Tuesday

The light snow could start before the morning commute and last a good portion of the day. Look for a coating to 1″ from I-78 on southward. North of there look for 1-2.” Temperatures tomorrow will not be as cold in the afternoon and its possible some areas, especially in the south, could see a little light rain at times in the afternoon.

The State pre treated the roads with brine as of yesterday so hopefully they will be fine as long as the rate of precipitation doesn’t get too heavy.

Updates as the situation changes.

« Older articles
Newer articles »
Plugin for Social Media by Acurax Wordpress Design Studio
Visit Us On TwitterVisit Us On FacebookVisit Us On PinterestVisit Us On YoutubeVisit Us On Instagram