01. February 2015 · Comments Off on Sunday Night Update on Monday Storm · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , , ,

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Update on the storm. It has been snowing lightly in western New Jersey since about 5:30 pm this evening. As of 10:45 pm there is approximately 1” of new snow on the ground.

Based on observations and radar, my forecast is adjusted downward for 1-3” of snow before we start to mix with sleet and freezing rain (by 3am) and then change over to rain by 6-8am. The above map, a revised snowfall forecast by NWS, is supported by me. More snow will fall to the north and west and less to the south and east. As you go north, you will see 3-8” of snow before mixing.

01. February 2015 · Comments Off on Storm Update · Categories: snow, weather discussion, weather forecast, winter · Tags: , ,

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I have limited time today due to photography and a big football game tonight Smile. I’ll post an update this evening if warranted.

We are starting off our Sunday morning in western New Jersey already cloudy. Snow light snow that is probably not reaching the ground is already falling in portions of western PA. Look for some light snow or snow showers to arrive by late afternoon or early evening. It should be snowing everywhere before the “big game” is over.

We will start off as all snow. Snow will become moderate to perhaps heavy at times late at night into the early morning hours. This is when I expect most of the accumulating snow to fall. I agree with the NWS map above. For western New Jersey my forecast is 3-6” of snow. More snow will fall in northern sections where the snow does not mix as much with sleet and freezing rain.

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A growing concern with the storm is an extended period of sleet and freezing rain. I expect them to start mixing in our area in the early morning hours on Monday with a complete changeover before sunrise. It’s not out of the question that some part of our area could changeover to all rain at some point. This will primarily be southern and eastern sections.

The above map is a forecasted ice amount from the NWS. I agree with the amounts here. Even though warmer air will be moving into the area and will be responsible for changing our snow to frozen precipitation, we have been cold lately and untreated surfaces will remain below freezing for a while if not the entire duration of the storm.

There is a chance the mixed precipitation could mix back with snow and perhaps change back to all snow on Monday before the storm ends.

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