Even though parts of our area received rain on August 23rd, that was nearly 2 weeks ago!
Even though our Labor Day weather is featuring filtered sunshine this morning, look for clouds to increase an lower with increasing showers as the day wears on. The rainiest period will be overnight into Tuesday morning
SPC severe weather threat for today
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of western New Jersey in a slight risk of severe weather today. The best chances for this will be late afternoon into the evening. This area has shifted slightly to the west over the past 24 hours. These storms will be the result of the unseasonably warm and humid weather we will see in the area today. Some areas could see 80 degrees and humidity will get to levels seldom seen in September.
Rain totals Tuesday
Yesterday’s forecast lived up to its potential and gave our area another good rainfall. Stewartsville received 1.41″ just since 7am Tuesday alone. This combined with what fell overnight Monday gave us 1.62″ of not needed rain. The above map shows more totals in northern NJ. Map courtesy of Rutgers NJWxNet.
Right now it looks like a nice fall weekend!
| Stewartsville Monthly Weather Observation Summary | |||||||
| Sep-16 | |||||||
| DAY | MAX | MIN | MEAN | PRECIP | COMMENTS | ||
| 1 | 82 | 63 | 72.5 | 0.10 | |||
| 2 | 81 | 57 | 69.0 | 0.00 | |||
| 3 | 79 | 57 | 68.0 | 0.00 | |||
| 4 | 82 | 53 | 67.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 5 | 87 | 54 | 70.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 6 | 87 | 66 | 76.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 7 | 89 | 66 | 77.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 8 | 93 | 65 | 79.0 | 0.00 | |||
| 9 | 92 | 73 | 82.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 10 | 96 | 71 | 83.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 11 | 83 | 60 | 71.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 12 | 81 | 50 | 65.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 13 | 85 | 56 | 70.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 14 | 91 | 60 | 75.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 15 | 76 | 53 | 64.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 16 | 78 | 47 | 62.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 17 | 82 | 50 | 66.0 | 0.00 | |||
| 18 | 85 | 67 | 76.0 | 0.00 | |||
| 19 | 76 | 66 | 71.0 | 1.35 | |||
| 20 | 83 | 64 | 73.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 21 | 85 | 59 | 72.0 | 0.00 | |||
| 22 | 86 | 53 | 69.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 23 | 88 | 50 | 69.0 | 0.00 | |||
| 24 | 74 | 51 | 62.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 25 | 73 | 43 | 58.0 | 0.00 | |||
| 26 | 71 | 41 | 56.0 | 0.00 | |||
| 27 | 75 | 52 | 63.5 | 0.33 | |||
| 28 | 71 | 46 | 58.5 | 0.00 | |||
| 29 | 62 | 55 | 58.5 | 0.45 | |||
| 30 | 61 | 52 | 56.5 | 1.12 | |||
| 3.35 | |||||||
| Extreme High | 96.0 | Date: | 10-Sep | ||||
| Extreme Low | 41.0 | Date: | 26-Sep | ||||
| Mean Max: | 81.1 | ||||||
| Mean Low: | 56.7 | ||||||
| Mean: | 68.9 | ||||||
NHC Hermine Overnight Update
the overnight computer models along with the National Hurricane Center have adjusted the forecast path for Hermine back to the East. This is not surprising and we will continue to see the forecast models sway back and forth. The storm isn’t even on land yet. Once it is we will have better data to make hopefully better forecasts.
The important thing to keep in mind is the trend. For the last day or two the trend was to have the storm come further north and east. Now we see on 12 hour period that shits it further to the east. Let’s see if this continue or not.
What’s important to note, if the above track verify’s, even though its not as close as the previous track it will impact our weather with some wind and rain on Labor Day weekend.
Another important item to note is the steering currents for this storm get very weak as it gets near our area. Notice how the last two forecast locations on the map above have the circles very close to each other. There is a possibility the storm could stall or become erratic. Again, we need to keep an eye on it and see if the trend continues.
In other news Stewartsville pickup up about 1/3″ of much needed rain overnight. Look for scattered showers this morning giving way to nicer weather and a beautiful Friday!
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