Needless to say, this snowstorm is overperforming. As of Noon, Stewartsville recorded 10″ of snow. Since then it’s been snowing at the rate of 2-3″ PER HOUR!
NWS radar shows heavy bands of snow
If you are in the blue circled area in the radar snapshot above, you are getting hammered with snow. These bands keep rotating from east to west giving nearly the entire heavy snow with greatly reduced visibilities.
NWS snow forecast updated at 11 am Feb 1, 2021
As a result of the intense bands of snow that are showing little movement, I need to increase my snowfall forecast to 16-24.” There’s even a chance that may not be enough! I expect some areas will approach 30″!
SPSPHI from 2/1/2021 12:35 PM to 3:00 PM EST for Hunterdon County, NJ, Northampton County, PA, Warren County, NJ: INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. More information.
Everything is progressing as expected for the most part with the snow storm. The snow did start a little earlier than expected. We also only anticipated 4″ my sunup today and we are at 5.7.” That doesn’t necessarily mean we will get more snow than forecast.
NWS snow forecast
The NWS snow forecast is above. I’m in agreement with it but going slightly less with 10-16.” Why less? Several reasons: 1) sleet was no expected to make it as far north as my location yet it did. 2) sleet holds down snow accumulations 3) typically an earlier start to snow means and earlier end and 4) I could be wrong
Regardless snowfall rates will pick up today and be heavy at times. The wind will also increase and be quite gusty
New event. Winter Storm Warning from 1/31/2021 5:00 PM to 2/2/2021 1:00 PM EST for Hunterdon County, NJ, Northampton County, PA, Warren County, NJ. More information.
Confidence continues to increase that the Sunday night – Tuesday morning snowstorm will be memorable and most likely surpass the December storm. I have a busy Saturday with work and family and will have limited time to study and post so wanted to get something out early.
I believe the red circled area, highlighting the area from the NWS where the potential for greatest snow, will be expanded further north and west. The models typically underplay the amount of snow that falls on the NW side of these storms. Plus the elevation yields more snow typically.
AccuWeather has our area in the 12-18″ area. This is certainly a possibility if we get all the storm has to offer.
The NWS snow forecast map above is only until 7 am Tuesday. While I fell most of the important snow should be received by then, there is certainly the possibility of picking up additional, especially further east.
As of right now I’m going with 6-12″ forecast. I hate to be so vague but with stronger systems like this, snow sets up in bands. If you are under one of those bands for a considerable amount of time, you get a lot of snow. Alternatively, if you remain outside of that area, not as much.
Gather the snow removal equipment and get the snow blower ready if you are fortunate enough to have one!
Event extended (both time and area). Winter Storm Watch from 1/31/2021 6:00 PM to 2/2/2021 6:00 AM EST for Hunterdon County, NJ, Northampton County, PA, Warren County, NJ. More information.
After today’s cold and wind, there’s little doubt that the net round of interesting weather will be a storm early next week. This storm will feature accumulating snow and not be a fast mover.
There are still many factors that need to become better know before a more accurate forecast can be created. The earliest onset of the snow appears to be Sunday evening. Heavier snow will fall on Monday and perhaps into Monday overnight and Tuesday morning.
The European computer model is starting to show the storm moving further south. We need to keep an eye on this guidance to see if this becomes a trend. If it does it could mean less snow for our area. Other guidance suggests more snow for our area.
The above graphic is from the NWS and is only through Monday 7 pm. Based on what we know currently, I think this is a good range. It shows more to the south.
This can and probably will change several times between now and the event so check back for updates.
Stewartsville recorded 0.2″ of sleet and a tiny bit of snow in the past 24 hours. The storm is moving away today and we should start to see periods of sunshine this afternoon.
Another storm system will pass to our south later today and on Thursday. This will result in the winds picking up and gusting to 30-40 mph at time. This will usher down very cold air from eastern Canada.
The cold winds will result in below-normal temperatures for the next several days. After today, we may not see temperatures above the freezing mark until early next week. Friday and Saturday high temperatures will be in the 20’s. Overnight lows will be in the upper single digits to low teens.
Looking long range, our next storm signal is later Sunday into early next week. Right now it has the potential to be a bigger storm than the last one. It might also be a snow to mix situation for our area as well (especially southern locations). It could be a long duration event as well lasting from late Sunday into Tuesday morning perhaps. We’ll keep an eye on it and update accordingly.
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