In looking at weather data so far, I’m impressed with the storm and starting to worry that perhaps this is an over achiever for western New Jersey.

On the radar above that was taken at 2:30 pm on Monday, there is now a solid band of snow over Long Island across NYC into northern NJ. This has formed faster than I anticipated. Furthermore the band appears to be staying in place. I’m starting to wonder if this band will remain and pivot as time goes on and the storm gets closer.

Computer models continue to support the storm as is. Current observations are showing the storm has formed slightly WSW of where the computer forecasts indicated. Furthermore the upper air support may be slight more favorable as well.

The NWS snowfall prediction from mid day is above. They are forecasting 10-14 for western New Jersey which is slightly higher than my forecast. They released a statement that a new snowfall forecast map will be released at 4pm. It will be interesting to see if there are any changes.

We also received 1.6” of new snow as of lunch time. This was a little more than what I though we would receive so early in the storm cycle.

So as of right now I continue to support the totals show in the map above. If I continue to see signals I’m seeing now I may be increasing my totals later on. I don’t like to do that but don’t want to leave anyone “buried” if there is a change in the weather.

Beyond this storm we will remain in an active pattern. Look for another fast moving clipper snow storm Thursday evening and night. This certainly won’t be anything impressive but will add to the cold and snow totals. There are also signs of a larger storm towards Ground Hog day…