Friday Storm Recap

03. March 2018 · Comments Off on Friday Storm Recap · Categories: snow, spring · Tags:

Snow on bulbs in Stewartsville.

I think its safe to say this storm was another over-producer. 3.1″ of very wet snow was recorded in Stewartsville. I never had to shovel most of my driveway – only the part that was in the shade of the house.

Here are some other snow totals:

...Warren County...
    Oxford                 6.0   415 PM  3/02  Social Media            
    Allamuchy              6.0   748 PM  3/02  Trained Spotter         
    Hackettstown           5.0   540 PM  3/02  Trained Spotter
...Northampton County...
    Hellertown             6.0   400 PM  3/02  Social Media            
    Bethlehem              5.6   330 PM  3/02  Trained Spotter         
    Cherry Hill            5.5  1020 PM  3/02  Trained Spotter         
    Easton                 4.3   700 PM  3/02  Social Media            
    Martins Creek          3.2   700 PM  3/02  Trained Spotter

Saturday Snow Recap

18. February 2018 · Comments Off on Saturday Snow Recap · Categories: snow · Tags:

7.6″ snow in Stewartsville the morning on February 18, 2018

Other snow totals from around the area:

...Hunterdon County...
   4 N Clinton Twp.       9.3   800 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Lebanon                8.8  1116 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Califon                8.5   700 AM  2/18  Public
   3 SW Hampton           8.0   630 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   3 ESE Alpha            7.5   700 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Ringoes                6.5   956 PM  2/17  Social Media
   Glen Gardner           6.0   718 PM  2/17  Social Media
   3 ENE High Bridge      6.0   640 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   4 WNW Cloverhill       6.0   630 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   3 E Flemington         5.6   802 AM  2/18  Co-Op Observer
   Readington Twp         4.8   642 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter
   Flemington             4.7  1010 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Kingwood               4.7  1119 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   2 E Flemington         4.7   800 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   2 W Cloverhill         4.6   800 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Wertsville             4.3   700 AM  2/18  Co-Op Observer
   3 SE Hardyston Twp     6.0   800 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Newton                 6.0   756 AM  2/18  Social Media
   Highland Lakes         5.3   630 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter
   Stockholm              4.5   930 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter
   1 SE Sussex            3.9   700 AM  2/18  Co-Op Observer
   Sussex                 3.9  1113 PM  2/17  Social Media
   3 N Wantage            3.2   917 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter

...Warren County...
   1 ENE Washington       9.3  1159 PM  2/17  CoCoRaHS
   Washington             8.3  1012 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Harmony Twp            8.0   836 PM  2/17  Social Media
   2 S Greenwich Twp      7.6  1047 PM  2/17  CoCoRaHS
   Stewartsville          7.6  1035 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Oxford                 7.5  1133 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Hackettstown           7.0   700 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   4 NE Hope              6.5   700 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Allamuchy              6.3   629 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter
   2 E Blairstown Twp     6.1   700 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   Blairstown             6.0   948 PM  2/17  CoCoRaHS
   4 NE Columbia          5.9   600 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS
   2 W Blairstown         5.8  1018 PM  2/17  CoCoRaHS
   Phillipsburg           5.7   828 PM  2/17  Trained Spotter
   Belvidere              5.6   700 AM  2/18  Co-Op Observer
   Marksboro              5.5   837 PM  2/17  Social Media
   Columbia               5.5   857 PM  2/17  Social Media

Snow Starts To Taper Off West To East

17. February 2018 · Comments Off on Snow Starts To Taper Off West To East · Categories: snow · Tags:

Radar shows back edge of steady snow approaching

6.2″ of snow in Stewartsville as of 8 pm!

Radar above shows the back edge of the steady snow approaching western New Jersey and should reach here by 9pm or snow. Expect only lighter snow accumulations after 10 pm unless something changes.

Winter Storm Warnings Issued

17. February 2018 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Warnings Issued · Categories: snow · Tags:

The NWS has upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to Winter Storm Warning. Rightfully snow as much more snow is falling that was predicted

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont,
and Perkasie
741 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of around 6 inches
  are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east
  central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. The
  snow may fall at 1 to 2 inches per hour at times in parts of the
  region, resulting in rapidly deteriorating road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Snow Over Performing And Moving Fast

17. February 2018 · Comments Off on Snow Over Performing And Moving Fast · Categories: snow · Tags:

View out the window just before I got dark

I was amazed how fast the snow started coming down and how fast the temperature fell from the upper 30’s to around 32-33 degrees.

Radar as of 6:37 pm

Above is the radar showing all snow (blue) and plenty of it. The snow is moderate to heavy.

As of 6:30 pm 3″ of snow has already fallen in Stewartsville. I fear my forecast will bust on the low end. 3-6″ may have been a better forecast. The only hope for my forecast is the system is moving extremely fast. The heavy snow could be done by 10 pm!

Snow Arrives Later Saturday Into Overnight

17. February 2018 · Comments Off on Snow Arrives Later Saturday Into Overnight · Categories: snow, winter · Tags:

NWS snow forecast

Sunny and cold Saturday morning will have increasing clouds as the day wears on. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30’s. Look for light snow to arrive as early as late afternoon and continue into the evening and night time hours.

My forecast remains at 2-4″ which is slightly lower than the NWS snow forecast pictured above. I think southern and eastern sections of western New Jersey will see some mixing of sleet and perhaps even rain at times especially towards the end of the storm. Temperatures will struggle to get to or below freezing tonight. This will result in a wet snow that will accumulate more on colder surfaces than treated surfaces. This will also be a very fast moving storm that could be done as early as just after midnight in western sections! There is a possibility I could be too low but I’m sticking with my gut for now.

 

Winter Weather Advisory

17. February 2018 · Comments Off on Winter Weather Advisory · Categories: snow, winter · Tags: 
902 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-172300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0008.180217T2100Z-180218T0900Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, Jim Thorpe,
Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook,
Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
902 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches
  are expected.

* WHERE...Most of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.

* WHEN...Snow quickly overspreads the area from the southwest
  between around mid afternoon, becoming moderate to potentially
  heavy at times this evening. The snow should quickly by 4 AM.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times. The snow may fall at
  up to an inch per hour at times in parts of the region, which
  would result in rapid deteriorating road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The
latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Latest on Saturday Night Snow

16. February 2018 · Comments Off on Latest on Saturday Night Snow · Categories: snow · Tags:

NWS snow forecast for Saturday night

Computer models today have decreased and slightly shifted the snow axis to the east and south. Will continue to monitor to see if this is a trend or one off.

My forecast of 2-4″ still stands for overnight Saturday. Snow should start late afternoon/early evening and be over before sunrise Sunday. This will be a wet/heavy snow. Sunshine returns on Sunday with temperatures rising into the mid 40’s!

Winter Storm Watch still in effect for Saturday night. Look for this to go to either a warning or a Winter Weather advisory later today or early tomorrow morning.

Winter Storm Watch Saturday Night

16. February 2018 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Watch Saturday Night · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags:

NWS Severity Index

The NWS has issued a winter storm watch for Saturday night. The map above is experimental and shows the potential impact from the next storm. For western New Jersey it’s a moderate impact.

NWS snow forecast

Above is the NWS snow forecast map. At this time my snow forecast remains the same: 2-4.” I still believe the computer models are showing too much precipitation for this fast moving storm. Plus there will be warm air not too far away and someone will be seeing mixed precipitation. Furthermore since it will be relatively warm the snow ratio will be low, perhaps not even 10:1 in southern and eastern areas.

Look for the snow to begin late afternoon and early evening Saturday and be mostly over before sunrise Sunday.

351 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches are possible.

* WHERE...The Lehigh Valley and Berks County, the southern Poconos
  and far northwestern New Jersey.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening into very early Sunday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Significant reductions in visibility are possible. There remains
  some uncertainty with how much precipitation extends this far
  westward, however there is the potential for a short period of
  heavy snow Saturday night which could lead to a rapid
  deterioration in road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

Beautiful Late Afternoon Thursday

15. February 2018 · Comments Off on Beautiful Late Afternoon Thursday · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winter · Tags:

AccuWeather forecast Saturday Night

Simply gorgeous outside now with temperatures in the low 60’s! Get outside if you can!

Accuweather snow forecast

I’ll continue to monitor this forecast and update accordingly.

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