Granted it’s been chilly and windy for the past several days. All of that is about to change as we enter into an extended period of warm, above normal temperatures and little to no rain!
So if you have been putting off outdoor chores, starting Thursday is the time to get them done!
Sorry for the lack of posts lately. I’ve been swamped with my photography business working 7 days a week.
Moderate to occasionally heavy rain has overspread western New Jersey and will continue until early to mid-afternoon. Look for rain totals to be 1-2″. As of 10 am Stewartsville has received just over 1/2″
After today’s rain pulls out above normal temperatures should be around for most of this upcoming week. Monday and Wednesday look to be the picks of the week. Tuesday will have some clouds and a chance of some drizzle and showers.
Then our attention turns to Halloween. Another storm similar to today looks to impact our region with some rain. The good news is it looks to continue to be near to slightly above normal temperatures.
After that, we look to enter a cool period with temperature below normal for several days into next weekend and the first part of the following week.
After a somewhat cloudy/foggy start early Monday morning, today will turn out to be a wonderful Columbus Day weatherwise. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 70’s is nearly 10 degrees above normal for this time of year!
Tuesday will be very similar but a chillier start. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be near 40. I’m sure some of the normally colder locations to the north and west could be in the upper 30’s. Afternoon temperatures will recover nicely but not be as warm as Monday with highs in the mid 60’s. We should start to see some increasing high clouds in the afternoon ahead of our next weather system.
Wednesday looks to be our next big weather system for the week. Rain showers should arrive on Wednesday morning and become heavy at times in the afternoon into the evening. Right now it looks like we could receive around 1″ of much-needed rain for western New Jersey.
Speaking of dry weather, the above map shows the latest drought monitor for New Jersey. All of western New Jersey remains in the abnormally dry, D0 rating. While not as bad as a few weeks ago, we are still on the dry side. Wednesday’s rain should be a big help as long as it doesn’t come down too fast and runoff.
End Of Week Into The Weekend
Once the Wednesday/Thursday morning storm moves away, it will usher down gusty winds and much colder temperatures. Thursday looks to be a blustery day with high temperatures not getting out of the 50’s. Friday should recover somewhat and we should get to near seasonable high temperatures. Right now we look to have another great weather-wise weekend with partly to mostly sunny skies and dry weather with seasonable temperatures.
If we can get the winds to die down and go calm, we may get a light frost early Saturday morning. Winds are forecast to drop off which might result in low temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30’s. This could result in a light frost in Warren and Suxxes counties. Hunterdon is not in the advisory but the northern section or those locations that normally get cold could be at risk. So if you have any sensitive plants, either cover them up or bring them inside overnight.
Today will feature more sunshine and no rain as compared to yesterday. The winds out of the NNW will become windy with gusts to 30 mph.
The winds will bring down colder air that you should be able to feel from mid-afternoon on. This will result in Saturday morning temperatures in the upper 30’s in most locations of western New Jersey. Normally colder locations, especially in the north, can see some frost early Saturday morning.
The calendar says October but it certainly doesn’t feel like it – yet. We have one more day of very unseasonably warm and humid weather before a dose of reality arrives.
At 8 am in Stewartsville our temperature is 70. Our normal high temperature is 69 degrees this time of year!
Relief is on the way and it will arrive overnight tonight. Temperatures tomorrow and the rest of the week into the weekend will be in the low to mid 60’s for high temperatures. There could even be a touch of frost Saturday morning!
With the change in weather comes chances for rain. The first will be later this afternoon and early evening when the cold front arrives. Unless you’re lucky enough to get under an area of heavier rain, we shouldn’t see too much from this – less than 1/10″
The cold front will stall to our south tomorrow and allow waves of low pressure across our area. This will give us some much-needed rain. Hopefully, most areas in western New Jersey will receive at least 1/2″ of rain. If we do receive 1/2″ or more of precipitation, it will be our biggest rainfall in over a month!
Despite some late afternoon showers yesterday that impacted some outdoor plans (hand raised) our weather pattern continues to be very dry. Stewartsville only recorded 0.04″ of rain yesterday.
The above drought monitor report for NJ shows expanded D0 dry conditions over last week.
A wider look at yesterday’s rain totals include most were less than 1/10 of an inch. Some lucky folks in the far northern part of the state received nearly a 1/3″ of rain.
The forecast for the next 7 days for western New Jersey only includes showers at best. There could be some scattered showers late Saturday into Saturday overnight. Then a few more chances mid next week.
The overall weather pattern looks to change late next week when some much cooler weather is forecast for next weekend. Perhaps this pattern change will introduce some additional rainfall. Until then, dry and becoming very warm once again on Saturday and then again next Tuesday-Wednesday.
While today certainly still feels summer-like, tomorrow won’t feel like the first day of Fall 2019. In fact, tomorrow will be more humid and uncomfortable compared to today. We’ll add New Jersey to the above graphic borrowed from NWS in western PA and Ohio 😉
Even though Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler, the warmth remains all week throughout the area
Above normal temperatures look to continue into the beginning of October as well.
All of this warmth has come along with dry weather. For the first time in 18 months, parts of western New Jersey are on the drought monitor. Southern sections are at the lowest level which is D1, Abnormally dry.
We will get a little rain late Monday as a cold front passes through our area. Look for 0.1-0.25″ of rain in most locations – hardly enough to make a dent in our nearly 2″ month to date deficit.
Cool start this morning with an overnight low temperature in Stewartsville of 42 degrees!
Several areas to the north with low temperatures in the 30’s.
Our stretch of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation looks to continue for the next 6-10 days and take us to near the end of September.
One of the many things I love about Fall weather is the warm, comfortable dry days and the cool nights. We have this beautiful stretch of weather for western New Jersey and beyond starting today. The nice stretch should last until the weekend.
The only thing that will change by the weekend is warmer and slightly more humid weather. Out next chance of rain is next Monday afternoon as a cold front passes.
The only negative thing I can say about this weather is we have been somewhat dry lately. I know a lot of people are not going to complain about that since we have a rain surplus year to date. But many lawns are starting to note the dryness. It might even impact fall foliage a bit. Stewartsville has only received just under 3/4″ since September 1st. Keep in mind no rain is in the forecast for the next 6 days and it doesn’t look like a lot next Monday either.
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