01. October 2015 · Comments Off on Latest on Hurricane Joaquin · Categories: Hurricane · Tags:


The 5 pm advisory from the NHC is out above. The forecast path is now a miss on landfall for the US. But that does not mean we won’t feel the effect of this strong hurricane. We will indirectly receive some rainfall from it along with breezy conditions. Closer to the coast will be a different story. They are already experiencing flooding at high tides and the waves will get larger and larger.

Also note on the map above it won’t be in our latitude until Tuesday. Expect breezy conditions, especially in exposed elevated locations, and near the shore of course, on Monday and Tuesday.

More updates as they become available.


01. October 2015 · Comments Off on JCP&L & Joaquin · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: ,

JCP&L offers a suite of web and mobile tools to report power outages and stay informed during severe weather. Visit www.jcp-l.com/connect to learn more. ‪#‎HurricaneJoaquin‬

JCP&L's photo.
01. October 2015 · Comments Off on Coastal Flooding Underway on NJ Coast · Categories: Hurricane · Tags: , ,


Wildwood NJ Photo by: Photo: Matt Ulmer

This is no surprise as we have had an on shore flow for the past several days with a strong north easterly winds. These winds will only increase in the next few days – even if Joaquin stays far to our east!

01. October 2015 · Comments Off on Hurricane Joaquin Upgraded · Categories: Hurricane · Tags:

Joaquin is now a major hurricane, a category 4 as of 2 pm:


Notice that the official National Hurricane Center track is even further to the east from this morning. I expect this trend to continue. The big question that needs to be answered now is how far east will it go?

01. October 2015 · Comments Off on Hurricane Joaquin Thursday 8 am Update · Categories: Hurricane · Tags:


The 8 am update is in and the above map looks ominous for New Jersey. Joaquin remains a category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds.

But I believe the European computer model might have been on the right track. Some of the models are now starting to trend to the right. The official NHC track above is now further to the right than yesterday (even though it moves from a mid-Atlantic landfall to our neck of the woods).


Above in the latest run of the GFS (American model) and it is now trending further east as well. The above map is forecast for Sunday evening. Normally most meteorologists don’t pay too much attention to these “middle” runs but the NWS has been launching weather balloons 4 times a day now instead of the usual 2 times just for Joaquin forecasting.

So today will be an interesting day for Joaquin tracking. Even if Joaquin misses us out to sea, we will still have another period of heavier rain Friday into Saturday and the coast line will be impacted by waves and a persistent on shore flow for several days resulting in tidal flooding.

01. October 2015 · Comments Off on Foliage Update Late September · Categories: Fall · Tags: ,

I wanted to take a brief break from Joaquin coverage and report on fall foliage update:


We are starting to see some color in western New Jersey!

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