The red circled area represents more showers associated with the cold front that will move through this evening.
Stewartsville picked up just under 1/3″ of rain today while other areas picked up more.
Happy Labor Day! Hopefully you were able to get outside yesterday or Saturday and enjoy some of the beautiful weather.
This morning and nice area of rain is moving into western New Jersey. It won’t last all day. This area will be done in a couple of hours. The rest of the day will have showers or perhaps even a thundershower.
Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder today. There is a marginal risk of severe storms. I don’t expect any of those but there could be a little thunder this morning and perhaps later on today.
Major hurricane Dorian has slowed down to a crawl over the Bahamas. The forecast continues to show a move up the FL coast starting tomorrow. While the hurricane will hopefully stay offshore, intense coastal flooding along with heavy rain and winds will be felt along the eastern seaboard up to NC this week.
SPC Severe weather outlook for Tuesday
Happy Labor Day 2017 everyone! Well more seasonable weather has finally made an return appearance. It seems so hot today but the reality is 80 for a high is normal! More of the same tomorrow with humidity too. We need to be on the lookout for the potential for severe weather later on Tuesday into the evening and early night. The SPC has put most of western new jersey in the slight risk category.
The severe weather is a strong cold front that will be passing into our area that will make us on the cool side again. Unfortunately this front is going to stall not that far away from us and keep the chance for rain showers into the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. We look to dry out for Friday and Saturday at this point.
NHC 5 day Irma forecast
All eyes continue to keep an eye on major hurricane Irma. She has moved slightly south and west and now look to pose more of a threat to the islands and possibly northern Cuba as well. The US risk right now appears to be Florida.
Here’s the Monday late morning update on Hermine. The storm is *finally* retrograding back to the west. But it is too far east to have any *significant* impacts to us here in western New Jersey. We will see more thin high clouds today than yesterday. There may even be more of a breeze than yesterday too. Expect high temperatures on Labor Day to be in the low 80’s. Overall great holiday weather.
Except if you at the shore. The shore will have more clouds today and it will be windy. You shouldn’t go into the warm water more than knee deep due to the rip current potential. And there will be continued beach erosion and some flooding at times of high tide. But it will be a nice enough day to get out and relax and visit shore vendors and enjoy the last day of the extended weekend.
Hermine will take her time departing the area. In her wake will be a return to hot and humid weather. Just what we all wanted to see with school back in session. Expect high temperatures Tuesday-Friday in the upper 80’s the low 90’s on some days. We could start to see some scattered afternoon showers as early as Wednesday but the rain chances increase more as the week wears on. Keep in mind we are very dry and under drought conditions.
NHC Hermine Overnight Update
the overnight computer models along with the National Hurricane Center have adjusted the forecast path for Hermine back to the East. This is not surprising and we will continue to see the forecast models sway back and forth. The storm isn’t even on land yet. Once it is we will have better data to make hopefully better forecasts.
The important thing to keep in mind is the trend. For the last day or two the trend was to have the storm come further north and east. Now we see on 12 hour period that shits it further to the east. Let’s see if this continue or not.
What’s important to note, if the above track verify’s, even though its not as close as the previous track it will impact our weather with some wind and rain on Labor Day weekend.
Another important item to note is the steering currents for this storm get very weak as it gets near our area. Notice how the last two forecast locations on the map above have the circles very close to each other. There is a possibility the storm could stall or become erratic. Again, we need to keep an eye on it and see if the trend continues.
In other news Stewartsville pickup up about 1/3″ of much needed rain overnight. Look for scattered showers this morning giving way to nicer weather and a beautiful Friday!
East Coast Tropical Update
Tropical depression 8 continue to look like it will move northeast and not impact our area.
Today will feature warm temperatures and low humidity. That changes on Wednesday as a strong cold front approaches the area on Wednesday. Tomorrow should be warm and humid. But then we get another brief taste of autumn with a few comfortable and cool days. Unfortunately we look to only receive about 1/4″ or rain as the cold front does not look to be too wet. This is unfortunate since it hasn’t rained since last Sunday and western New Jersey has returned to dry conditions.
8-14 Temperature Outlook
After a nice comfortable start to the Labor Day weekend, above normal temperatures look to return into the first half of September. This trend looks to continue beyond this…
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