902 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-172300- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0008.180217T2100Z-180218T0900Z/ Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon- Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 902 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected. * WHERE...Most of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. * WHEN...Snow quickly overspreads the area from the southwest between around mid afternoon, becoming moderate to potentially heavy at times this evening. The snow should quickly by 4 AM. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. The snow may fall at up to an inch per hour at times in parts of the region, which would result in rapid deteriorating road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
NWS Severity Index
The NWS has issued a winter storm watch for Saturday night. The map above is experimental and shows the potential impact from the next storm. For western New Jersey it’s a moderate impact.
NWS snow forecast
Above is the NWS snow forecast map. At this time my snow forecast remains the same: 2-4.” I still believe the computer models are showing too much precipitation for this fast moving storm. Plus there will be warm air not too far away and someone will be seeing mixed precipitation. Furthermore since it will be relatively warm the snow ratio will be low, perhaps not even 10:1 in southern and eastern areas.
Look for the snow to begin late afternoon and early evening Saturday and be mostly over before sunrise Sunday.
351 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible. * WHERE...The Lehigh Valley and Berks County, the southern Poconos and far northwestern New Jersey. * WHEN...From Saturday evening into very early Sunday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Significant reductions in visibility are possible. There remains some uncertainty with how much precipitation extends this far westward, however there is the potential for a short period of heavy snow Saturday night which could lead to a rapid deterioration in road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
AccuWeather forecast Saturday Night
Simply gorgeous outside now with temperatures in the low 60’s! Get outside if you can!
Accuweather snow forecast
I’ll continue to monitor this forecast and update accordingly.
NWS snow forecast for Saturday night
Confidence has increased that there will be some accumulating snow Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The big questions now is how much. There’s a good chance of warmer air not being too far from western New Jersey – especially eastern and southern locations so that will have to be watched.
Early forecast based on what I’m seeing right now is 2-4″
Until then today will be quite mild. If we can get some sun out today after this fog burns off, we can easily get high temperatures in the upper 50’s to near 60 or better.
Rain will return tonight and last into Friday morning. Friday will then be a transition day starting off near 50 but dropping temperatures as the day goes on. Friday night will be quite chilly as will Saturday by recent standards. The snow should hold off until Saturday evening as it looks now.
Storm threat late Saturday into Sunday
Keeping an eye on the potential for a sneaky fast moving snow threat for later Saturday into early Sunday morning. If the storm will be fast moving so if it does happen will not be the “big one.” It will be another nuisance snow if it happens. Saturday will be colder day compared to Friday – that is where the cold air will come from. If it does happen it should clear out for Sunday.
We’ll continue to keep an eye on this and keep you updated.
Radar shows some light snow flurries moving in from the west
As colder air filters into western New Jersey this morning, some areas could see some light snow flurries. I don’t expect much if anything. After this passes we should hopefully see more sunshine later today.
Tonight the colder air will make its impact with low temperatures in the mid to upper teens. Shrove Tuesday will be a typical winter day with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s.
Flood watch for western New Jersey
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 320 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ007>010-012>027-PAZ060>062- 070-071-101>106-101800- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0002.180210T2300Z-180212T0500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle-Kent-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Warren- Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth- Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May- Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware- Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery- Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 320 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of Delaware, northeast Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in Delaware, Kent and New Castle. In northeast Maryland, Caroline, Cecil, Kent MD, Queen Annes, and Talbot. In New Jersey, Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Camden, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Warren, and Western Monmouth. In Pennsylvania, Berks, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and Western Montgomery. * From this evening through Sunday evening * Rain develops this afternoon, and then a prolonged period of heavy rain will overspread the region tonight through Sunday night. The axis of heaviest rain will fall along the I-95 corridor, where between 2 and 3 inches of rain is expected to fall from northern Maryland and Delaware, through southeast Pennsylvania, and into most of New Jersey. * Low-lying flooding is likely where the heaviest rain occurs. In addition, rainfall amounts may result in flooding on area streams, creeks, and rivers by late Sunday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
5 Day weather forecast
Chilly start Friday morning with temperatures in the upper teens to around 20. Today will be mostly cloudy with some flurries or even a period of light snow to the north. This could result in a coating up north.
Then let the warmth begin. Saturday will have high temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s repeated on Sunday. Unfortunately it will be rainy especially the second half. Hopefully the rain showers on Saturday will hold off until late afternoon. Then periods of rain Saturday night into Sunday. 1-2″ of rain is possible from this next system. Something to keep in mind is the ground is mostly still frozen. So if we do get a lot of rain there will not be many places for it to go except in storm drains. So there could be some low lying field flooding along with some fog in areas that still have some snow cover.
We still look to remain above normal temperatures into next week.
After 1.3″ of snow fell in Stewartsville today, look for a sharp temperature drop later on tonight. It might be a good idea to remove any slush now or else it will be a bigger problem in the AM
Projected 10 pm temperatures
This computer model estimates most of western New Jersey will be below freezing at 10 pm and we should have an overnight low in the upper teens. The winds will pick up too.
Sleet moving into southern areas
As of 9:45 am mostly sleet is falling in Stewartsville. As seen in the map above this is approaching from the east and southwest. Let’s hope we stay more sleet than freezing rain. Freezing rain is falling in southern PA.
As of 9:45 1.3″ new snow in Stewartsville. This will probably be the total as little will accumulate further with the sleet then rain
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