Event cancelled. Areal Flood Warning from 9/12/2018 9:35 PM to 9/13/2018 1:30 AM EDT for Hunterdon County. More information.
New event. Areal Flood Warning from 9/12/2018 7:25 PM to 9/13/2018 1:30 AM EDT for Hunterdon County. More information.
New event. Areal Flood Advisory from 9/12/2018 5:07 PM to 9:00 PM EDT for Hunterdon County. More information.
New event. Areal Flood Advisory from 9/12/2018 4:06 PM to 7:00 PM EDT for Hunterdon County. More information.
Key points for hurricane Florence
What has changed with hurricane Florence in the past 24 hours:
- intensity remains about the same
- forecast path has continued to shift to the south west
- hurricane will slow down as it approaches the coast and possible linger for a couple of days
- there could be multiple landfalls depending on how fast the storm slows down and future movements
Besides winds and tidal flooding, heavy rains are possible along the coast and inland from this hurricane.
Rain fall forecast
Risk of flash flooding from Florence
11 am Florence advisory
Hurricane warnings for the NC coast and northern half of the SC coast. Florence slowed down slightly to 15 mph with max winds still at 130. I don’t expect any significant, long lasting intensification at this point. New with this advisory is the predicted track further to the west and south.
Where Florence or its remnants go from there is still unclear. It could linger in the SE for days and possible make its way further to the north and east. If it does it will be much weaker, but likely still a rain maker. This will not happen until next week sometime
New event. Dense Fog Advisory from 9/12/2018 2:05 AM to 10:00 AM EDT for Hunterdon County. More information.
Executive summary on Hurricane Florence
Hurricane Florence remains a dangerous hurricane. In the last 24 hours not too much has changed. The hurricane has undergone an eyewall replacement cycle which is very common in major hurricanes. This results in a slight weakening of the storm but it’s still a cat 4 with 130 mph winds. Once the cycle is complete, it will most likely strengthen.
Official NHC track
The latest NHC track for the hurricane is above. The Euro model is now suggesting the hurricane may make landfall further south and west than shown above. This is a result of the high pressure to the north will remain and in fact strengthen and perhaps shift to the west a little more. If this happens look for the center to go closer to the SC/NC border and NC would receive more impact from the storm over Virginia.
Timing Florence
The above map shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds combined with their probability. For instance: central and southern NJ is in green and has an arrival time of Friday. But green represents a 5-10% chance of this happening with southern NJ 10-20% chance. If the storm does move slightly further SW, look for this to shift accordingly.
Storm surge flooding
Storm Surge
Low lying areas along and to the right of the forward moving hurricane will see a storm surge of water. The above map shows the storm surge watches and warnings along with how much potential flooding there will be and where.
Rainfall total
A land falling hurricane not only brings storm surge but a great deal of rainfall, even far inland. The above map shows the potential 1-7 day rainfall forecast. Note that eastern NC takes the brunt with heavy rains in eastern VA as well
Flooding potential
With all the potential rainfall brings the risk of flash flooding. The above map shows the risk areas for this to happen. Eastern NC has a moderate risk of flash flooding.
The ECMWF model is showing potential rainfall with Florence
Keep track of major hurricane Florence. Once the hurricane makes landfall it appears the forward motion of the storm will slow down and remain in the area as it weakens. Where it goes from there is still up for interpretation. If western New Jersey does get any impact, it will not be until next week sometime…
SPSPHI from 9/11/2018 4:23 AM to 9:00 AM EDT for Hunterdon County, Warren County, Northampton County: Areas of fog will persist through the morning rush. More information.
Event cancelled. Areal Flood Watch from 9/10/2018 3:12 PM to 9/11/2018 6:00 AM EDT for Hunterdon County, Warren County, Northampton County. More information.
Since this morning hurricane Florence has undergone significant strengthening. Florence has gone from a category 2 early this morning to currently a cat 4. This highest rating for hurricanes is cat 5.
The above graphic shows the five day forecast for the hurricane. As you can see the storm will stay to the south of western New Jersey. Once the storm makes landfall, or comes close the Carolina coast, steering winds will become weak so the future path of the storm is not carved in stone.
The above map shows the probabilities of an area seeing tropical storm winds. As you can see northern NJ does not have a color and southern NJ is dark green – with only a 5-10 % chance. This is until Saturday morning
The above map show the *earliest* reasonable arrival time of tropical storm force winds if they occur. Again northern NJ is not in the cone and southern NJ is Thursday afternoon. But keep in mind the other map that we only have a small chance of seeing winds this strong.
Even though the storm will be to our south, the component that is steering the storm to our south may also give us some winds. The combination of strong high pressure north of the storm and the hurricane will setup a pressure gradient, even quite a distance away from the storm. Where this sets up needs to be monitored.
Now looking only at hurricane force wind speeds, the probabilities are outlined in the above map.
The right front side of a storm typically sees not only the strongest winds but also a large amount of rain. In this case the winds will be blowing up against the Appalachian mountains. This will “wring out” even more rain from the hurricane. The above map shows the potential rainfall for days 4 and 5 from now.
Here is the day 6 and 7 forecast for rainfall. Needless to say a huge amount of inland flooding may occur over parts of North Carolina and the Virginia’s
we will continue to monitor the storm and report on it as we are able.
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