345 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in New Jersey, Camden, Coastal Ocean, Eastern Monmouth, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Warren, and Western Monmouth. In Pennsylvania, Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, and Western Montgomery. * From late Thursday night through late Friday night * Rain is expected to develop Thursday afternoon and persists through all of Friday and maybe into Friday night. The heaviest rain is expected across the northern half of New Jersey and east-central Pennsylvania. This includes the Raritan and Passaic basins in New jersey and portions of the Delaware Basin. * As the rain falls later on Thursday and into Friday, low-lying and poor drainage flooding is likely where the heaviest rain occurs. In addition, as this rainfall runs off into larger streams and rivers, flooding will also be possible Friday night into Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
My thoughts are as follows:
- Rain starts late afternoon Thursday and becomes heavy at times Thursday evening and overnight
- Rain could end as wet snow, especially north and west and elevated locations
- Winds will be gusty
- Snow could accumulate from a coating to 2″ mainly on colder surfaces. The exception to this will be further to the north and west and any elevated locations
- There will be 1-2″ of rain which will result in small stream flooding since we’ve had so much rain recently. There’s potential for larger rivers to get close too
- Precipitation should become more showery on Friday afternoon and end by Friday evening. It will remain windy with seasonable temperatures (which will seem cold to everyone since it’s been so warm recently)
There are a few wildcards in this forecast. The Euro model above is forecasting 2-4″ of snow for most southern location in western New Jersey and 4-10″ of snow further to the north. This will have to be watched to see if this happen since the last storm over-performed. Some of this will be falling during the day on Friday which will be harder to accumulate except on colder surfaces
Another rainy weekend. Oh boy. Western New Jersey picked up over 1″ of rainfall. Let’s not hear any talk of a drought for a while 🙂
Once the morning clouds and fog burn off we should see some sunshine later and should have another above normal high temperature near 50. Tuesday and Wednesday look like very nice late February days as well with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 50’s.
Then our attention turns to increasing clouds on Thursday in what will be a rainy windy storm that will impact the area later Thursday through Friday. This will be near a full moon so some coastal flooding is also possible. This may end as a little wet snow in spots. Details as we get closer.
Well of course since the weekend is upon us that means cloudy damp weather. Perhaps we will see a little sun by Sunday afternoon. If not then the beginning of next week looks sunny and a little warmer!
Out greatest chance of steady rain will be later Saturday night into Sunday morning. We could see up to an inch of rain in spots.
Some areas to the far north today are still fighting with some freezing rain and drizzle with temperatures around freezing. Watch out for slippery spots if heading north today or tonight!
After a beautify and practically hot afternoon in February showers are approaching the area. These showers are preceding a cold front that will bring sharply colder weather on Thursday.
Western New Jersey is seeing plenty of fog this morning. This is due to the warmer air arriving on top of the snow covered ground. Once the sun comes out or the snow melts we will see much warmer temperatures today and tomorrow. Today the 60’s may not show up until that happens but hopefully we will see 50’s by mid-day
Early risers this morning saw a nice sunrise to the east. This week will feature warm unsettled weather. In fact it could be record breaking warmth on Wednesday. Every day this week will be above or normal of the upper 30’s.
The snow melted yesterday almost as fast as it fell on Saturday night. Stewartsville has 3″ left this morning. Today will feature clouds and some light rain shower so perhaps not as much will melt today. What doesn’t melt today will get knocked down on Tuesday with sunshine and high’s in the 60’s!
Other snow totals from around the area:
...Hunterdon County... 4 N Clinton Twp. 9.3 800 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS Lebanon 8.8 1116 PM 2/17 Trained Spotter Califon 8.5 700 AM 2/18 Public 3 SW Hampton 8.0 630 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS 3 ESE Alpha 7.5 700 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS Ringoes 6.5 956 PM 2/17 Social Media Glen Gardner 6.0 718 PM 2/17 Social Media 3 ENE High Bridge 6.0 640 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS 4 WNW Cloverhill 6.0 630 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS 3 E Flemington 5.6 802 AM 2/18 Co-Op Observer Readington Twp 4.8 642 AM 2/18 Trained Spotter Flemington 4.7 1010 PM 2/17 Trained Spotter Kingwood 4.7 1119 PM 2/17 Trained Spotter 2 E Flemington 4.7 800 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS 2 W Cloverhill 4.6 800 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS Wertsville 4.3 700 AM 2/18 Co-Op Observer
3 SE Hardyston Twp 6.0 800 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS Newton 6.0 756 AM 2/18 Social Media Highland Lakes 5.3 630 AM 2/18 Trained Spotter Stockholm 4.5 930 AM 2/18 Trained Spotter 1 SE Sussex 3.9 700 AM 2/18 Co-Op Observer Sussex 3.9 1113 PM 2/17 Social Media 3 N Wantage 3.2 917 AM 2/18 Trained Spotter ...Warren County... 1 ENE Washington 9.3 1159 PM 2/17 CoCoRaHS Washington 8.3 1012 PM 2/17 Trained Spotter Harmony Twp 8.0 836 PM 2/17 Social Media 2 S Greenwich Twp 7.6 1047 PM 2/17 CoCoRaHS Stewartsville 7.6 1035 PM 2/17 Trained Spotter Oxford 7.5 1133 PM 2/17 Trained Spotter Hackettstown 7.0 700 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS 4 NE Hope 6.5 700 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS Allamuchy 6.3 629 AM 2/18 Trained Spotter 2 E Blairstown Twp 6.1 700 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS Blairstown 6.0 948 PM 2/17 CoCoRaHS 4 NE Columbia 5.9 600 AM 2/18 CoCoRaHS 2 W Blairstown 5.8 1018 PM 2/17 CoCoRaHS Phillipsburg 5.7 828 PM 2/17 Trained Spotter Belvidere 5.6 700 AM 2/18 Co-Op Observer Marksboro 5.5 837 PM 2/17 Social Media Columbia 5.5 857 PM 2/17 Social Media
6.2″ of snow in Stewartsville as of 8 pm!
Radar above shows the back edge of the steady snow approaching western New Jersey and should reach here by 9pm or snow. Expect only lighter snow accumulations after 10 pm unless something changes.
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