NHC Forecast Map for TS Hermine
TD ( turning into TS Hermine today. The storm continues to move further north and west than originally thought. The revised NHC track has the storm approaching our neck of the woods just in time for a beautiful Labor Day weekend.
As of right now, if this continues on this track, windy rains could move into our area as soon as Saturday night.
I’ll continue to keep an eye on this and provide updates.
East Coast Tropical Update
Tropical depression 8 continue to look like it will move northeast and not impact our area.
Today will feature warm temperatures and low humidity. That changes on Wednesday as a strong cold front approaches the area on Wednesday. Tomorrow should be warm and humid. But then we get another brief taste of autumn with a few comfortable and cool days. Unfortunately we look to only receive about 1/4″ or rain as the cold front does not look to be too wet. This is unfortunate since it hasn’t rained since last Sunday and western New Jersey has returned to dry conditions.
8-14 Temperature Outlook
After a nice comfortable start to the Labor Day weekend, above normal temperatures look to return into the first half of September. This trend looks to continue beyond this…
Tropical Update August 27, 2016
It’s that time of year again when we need to start paying attention to the tropics. Nothing major on the horizon. Area #1 in the map above, which was investigation area 99L, may re-energize as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Another interesting area is #3 as that may impact the Carolina coast. None of these look significant at this point. But if you’re on a beach vacation in those areas, it’s significant!
Wide view of the radar shows additional showers in western PA that will move into western NJ overnight
First round of thunderstorms moved through western New Jersey this afternoon and early evening. The cold front is still to our west in western PA. As you can see in the radar above there are still some additional showers and thundershowers that will move though our area later tonight into the overnight. The big question is how strong will they be. With the sunset some of the energy will be taken away from these storms. But we all know how warm and humid the air is. This warm and humid air contains a lot of moisture and energy so if the right conditions come together there could be some heavier thundershowers.
The severe thunderstorm watch issued earlier is no longer in effect. I do not anticipate another watch being issued with the weather to our west.
Severe thunderstorm watch for western NJ
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District of Columbia
northern Delaware
much of Maryland
New Jersey
eastern Pennsylvania
northern Virginia
coastal waters
* effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
Summary...north-south squall line is gradually intensifying over
central Pennsylvania into western Maryland. Damaging winds can be
expected with this line of convection as it spreads toward New
Jersey.
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles south
southwest of Baltimore Maryland to 40 miles north of Allentown
Pennsylvania. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou7).
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Remember...a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.
Aviation...a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 25030.
SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather on Tuesday for western New Jersey
Best time for this to happen, if it does, is 3 pm onward today. This may not be widespread.
Radar is not showing too much now…
Slight risk of severe thunderstorms possible on Tuesday
Keep an eye to the sky on Tuesday. Any thunderstorms that do form in western New Jersey have the potential to be slightly more severe than normal
SPC has upgraded western NJ to a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
Lightning photos August 13, 2016 from Stewartsville, NJ
Unless you were out of town last night, you couldn’t but help notice the thunderstorms that passed into western New Jersey last evening. I was able to get a few descent photos of the lightning since the storms were not directly overhead where I was. All photos © 2016 Dave Dabour, Dabour Photography
...Excessive heat warning remains in effect from noon Saturday to 9 PM EDT Sunday... ...Heat advisory will expire at 8 PM EDT this evening... * maximum heat index values...105 to 110 on Saturday afternoon and 102 to 107 on Sunday afternoon. * Temperatures...highs are forecast to be in the middle 90s on Saturday and in the lower to middle 90s on Sunday. Overnight lows are expected to favor the middle and upper 70s. * Timing...heat index values will reach excessive levels during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring brief periods of relief from the heat. * Impacts...the multiple day excessive heat will increase the risk for heat-related health issues...especially for the elderly and for those with chronic health problems such as lung and heart disease. * Outlook...a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest should arrive early in the new week bringing some relief from the oppressive heat and humidity. Precautionary/preparedness actions... This excessive heat warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures and high humidity levels will occur. The conditions will enhance the potential for the development of heat-related health issues among susceptible individuals. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air- conditioned environment if possible...stay out of the sun and check on elderly relatives and neighbors. Children and pets should never be left unattended in a vehicle under any circumstance. During hot weather a car interior can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to the early morning or late evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing and drink plenty of water. To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in a shaded or air conditioned environment. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency...call 9 1 1.
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