NWS Severity Index

The NWS has issued a winter storm watch for Saturday night. The map above is experimental and shows the potential impact from the next storm. For western New Jersey it’s a moderate impact.

NWS snow forecast

Above is the NWS snow forecast map. At this time my snow forecast remains the same: 2-4.” I still believe the computer models are showing too much precipitation for this fast moving storm. Plus there will be warm air not too far away and someone will be seeing mixed precipitation. Furthermore since it will be relatively warm the snow ratio will be low, perhaps not even 10:1 in southern and eastern areas.

Look for the snow to begin late afternoon and early evening Saturday and be mostly over before sunrise Sunday.

351 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches are possible.

* WHERE...The Lehigh Valley and Berks County, the southern Poconos
  and far northwestern New Jersey.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening into very early Sunday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Significant reductions in visibility are possible. There remains
  some uncertainty with how much precipitation extends this far
  westward, however there is the potential for a short period of
  heavy snow Saturday night which could lead to a rapid
  deterioration in road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.