NWS Snow Forecast for Thursday

After looking at all the weather data so far today, I’m still on track with my forecast of 2-4″ for western New Jersey. At this point we need to start looking at actual data like radar and weather maps and see how the storm and precipitation are moving. One thing that has me a little concerned is down south on the radar it was showing an area on the west side further inland than I expected to see but to the east of it was a giant dry slot. If that pattern continues we could be in that dry slot as the storm moves up the coast. This will be something I will keep an eye on tomorrow.

There will be more snow further east as that will be closer to where the storm will be. One reason why totals are down is this is a fast moving storm. There is nothing blocking it and it should be out of our area later tomorrow. Out of our area from a snow point of view but then the winds will pick up and usher down the coldest temperatures of the season. Saturday morning and Sunday morning will either be at zero or below.

And if will be windy perhaps to the point of some scattered power outages by us. That is certainly something we don’t need when its cold and windy outside.

NWS Snow forecast

Above is a closer look on New Jersey. The snow should start lightly in the early morning hours. The snow will actually spread in from the south and east. Our temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to perhaps mid 20’s. This will make the snow dry and powdery. That’s good news for any shoveling but bad news when the wind starts blowing in the afternoon.

So What Can Go Wrong? (or right depending on your point of view)

• The western edge will have a sharp cut off in snow
• In deep strong storms “banding” sets up with precipitation. I expect to see this tomorrow. In one of the December storms there was a heavy band of snow in PA and much lighter snow in NJ which was opposite the forecast
• Dry slot. As I mentioned before, dry slots form in some storms and they are usually on the west or south west side of a storm
• Dryness. The air outside is very dry. We will see snow falling on radar tomorrow and it will not be reaching the ground. Depending on how long this happens could hold down snow totals, especially on the western side of the storm, which is where we will be.