Early Winter Storm Update

15. November 2018 · Comments Off on Early Winter Storm Update · Categories: Fall, snow, weather discussion · Tags:

The overnight temperature didn’t drop as much as I expected. The early arrival of clouds was responsible for that. Right now we are around 30 degrees in southern warren county. Other locations are in the mid to upper 20’s to the north.

Temperatures 8 am Thursday morning

Many school districts have early dismissals today.

Radar 8:30 am

The radar show the approach of the wintry precipitation. Take note that the light snow just to our SW is not yet reaching the ground. This is common in the winter time when the atmosphere is cold and dry before a storm. It takes a little bit for it to moisten up enough for the precipitation to reach the ground.

Once the snow changes to rain, we expect the total liquid from this storm to be over 1″ and possibly even 1.5″ in some spots. So a lot of the frozen precipitation on the ground will get washed away in some spots

Timing: Look for snow to arrive in western New Jersey between 10 am and 1 pm from SW to NE. Don’t be surprised to see the snow go to sleet after it starts and then back to snow. This is due to the warmer temperatures before the snow. ONce the snow starts it will cool off the temperature.

Sleet will start mixing in and even change over starting as early as 4pm to around 7 pm.

Rain will start mixing in and then changeover around dinner time in the southern areas to 10 pm further north

NWS snow forecast

How Much: The NWS has maintained their snow forecast of 2-3″ for most of western New Jersey with a bit more further north. My thinking is the sleet will arrive sooner and keep totals down to a coating to 2″ with more to the north.

Don’t be surprised if the rain ends as some wet snow early Friday morning as colder air comes in behind the departing storm. Quieter weather is expected for the next several days

Wintry Weather Thursday

13. November 2018 · Comments Off on Wintry Weather Thursday · Categories: weather discussion

Thursday forecast

Colder air is arriving today to dry out the overnight rain. Winds will pick up and be clustery at times. We should see more tomorrow on Wednesday. There’s even a good chance we could see some snow flurries on Wednesday or even possibly a snow squall as some colder air arrives.

The we turn our attention to Thursday. A coastal storm will be approaching our area. We will start off cold but warmer air will slowly make it way into our area. We should start off as some wet snow that will mix with sleet and then eventually changeover to a cold rain. When the precipitation arrives will help determine how much, if any accumulation we receive.

NWS 5 day forecast

There’s a of of thing we need to keep in mind in determining if we will receive any accumulation of snow on Thursday:

  • This is the first event of the season. Yes its been cold out recently but not very cold. The ground is warm
  • Most of the precipitation on Thursday will be falling during the day. To get snow to accumulate during the day, especially in early and late season, you need it to snow very hard
  • As the heavier precipitation approaches later in the day, so will the warmer air that will eventually change us over to rain.

My initial thoughts are we will see a wintry mix during the day on Thursday. I think the roads will be fine. There may be some whitening on untreated surfaces. On those surfaces we could see a coating to perhaps 1″. More accumulate further to the north and west (up near I-80)

I’ll provide updates as they become available.

Election Day Rain

06. November 2018 · Comments Off on Election Day Rain · Categories: Fall, weather discussion · Tags:

SPC severe weather risk for Tuesday

The threat for severe weather today has shifted further to the south. This is in part mostly due to the arrival of the precipitation around midday to early afternoon. There will not be much heating of the atmosphere since we’re starting off cloudy and drizzly in spots.

Radar as of 8:30 am

The last thing we need in western New Jersey is anymore rain. It’s knocking on the doorstep of our area. Look for the worse of it around mid day to early-mid afternoon. If you haven’t voted yet I recommend doing it ASAP or later on today or tonight.

Rain total forecast

Thankfully yesterday’s rainfall forecast came up short (for a change). Stewartsville only received 0.22″ of new rain. Today we could see p to 1/2″ of additional rain. Some of it may come down quickly as a line of heavier shower and possibly a thundershower is forecast to approach from 11- 3pm

Rainy Monday; More Severe Weather Tomorrow?

05. November 2018 · Comments Off on Rainy Monday; More Severe Weather Tomorrow? · Categories: Fall, thunderstorms, weather discussion · Tags: ,

24 hour precipitation forecast

Another rainy day is in store for western New Jersey Monday. Expect about 3/4″ of new rain ending tomorrow morning.

Severe weather risk for Tuesday

Come tomorrow the rain won’t go away. In fact as a cold front approaches, we could have a repeat of severe weather for NOvember. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of western New Jersey in a marginal risk for severe weather. Further to the SW you can see the yellow in the map above for an increased or slight risk of severe weather. We’ll keep an eye on this and keep you posted as best we can.

7 Day NWS forecast

Rainy Friday Night into Saturday Morning; Sunday Nice

02. November 2018 · Comments Off on Rainy Friday Night into Saturday Morning; Sunday Nice · Categories: weather discussion · Tags:

Rain has returned to our area and will be heavy at times overnight

Rain has moved back into western New Jersey and will be heavy at times overnight. There could even be a rumble or two of thunder. Looki for 1-2″ of rain from this system.

Rain could linger into Saturday morning but then start improving before lunch time. Much cooler and seasonable temperatures over the weekend. Sunday looks to be a nice fall weekend day. but don’t forget to adjust your clocks before going to bed the night before!

Augtober Weather Continues

04. October 2018 · Comments Off on Augtober Weather Continues · Categories: weather discussion · Tags:

8 pm surface map forecast

Our see-saw weather will continue. Today will warm up and become humid again ahead of a cold front that will cross our region later today. We will see some scattered showers and possibly even a thundershower this afternoon from 3 pm on. I don’t expect this to be anywhere near as potent as Tuesday evening.

SPC severe weather forecast

The cold front will bring closer to seasonable weather to western New Jersey area with high temperatures near 70 Friday and Saturday.

But then the heat and humidity return Sunday into next week. We need to look to the middle of the month for potential to finally get closer to seasonable temperatures on a regular basis. Believe it or not but high temperatures should only be in the 60’s and overnight lows in the 40’s. When we experience this now on those occasional days they feel cold by comparison.

Severe Weather Threat Later Today

26. September 2018 · Comments Off on Severe Weather Threat Later Today · Categories: Fall, thunderstorms, weather discussion · Tags: ,

SPC severe weather threat for today

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of western New Jersey in a slight risk of severe weather today. The best chances for this will be late afternoon into the evening. This area has shifted slightly to the west over the past 24 hours. These storms will be the result of the unseasonably warm and humid weather we will see in the area today. Some areas could see 80 degrees and humidity will get to levels seldom seen in September.

Rain totals Tuesday

Yesterday’s forecast lived up to its potential and gave our area another good rainfall. Stewartsville received 1.41″ just since 7am Tuesday alone. This combined with what fell overnight Monday gave us 1.62″ of not needed rain. The above map shows more totals in northern NJ. Map courtesy of Rutgers NJWxNet.

Right now it looks like a nice fall weekend!

Friday Hurricane Florence Update

14. September 2018 · Comments Off on Friday Hurricane Florence Update · Categories: Hurricane, weather discussion · Tags:

NHC 2 pm Advisory

Hurricane Florence made landfall in SE NC just after 7 am this morning. The hurricane continues to slowly weaken and slowly move away which is increasing the damage the storm is producing.

4-5 Day precipitation forecast

The remnants of Florence are forecast to recurve to the north and east and impact our area late Monday into Tuesday

5 Day NWS forecast

Ironically we should have a pretty nice weekend, especially Sunday. Then clouds will increase on Monday with 1-3″ of rain Monday night into Tuesday.

Then by end of week we should finally see some dryer cooler weather.

Wednesday Hurricane Florence Update

12. September 2018 · Comments Off on Wednesday Hurricane Florence Update · Categories: Hurricane, weather discussion · Tags: ,

Key points for hurricane Florence

What has changed with hurricane Florence in the past 24 hours:

  • intensity remains about the same
  • forecast path has continued to shift to the south west
  • hurricane will slow down as it approaches the coast and possible linger for a couple of days
  • there could be multiple landfalls depending on how fast the storm slows down and future movements

Besides winds and tidal flooding, heavy rains are possible along the coast and inland from this hurricane.

Rain fall forecast

Risk of flash flooding from Florence

11 am Florence advisory

Hurricane warnings for the NC coast and northern half of the SC coast. Florence slowed down slightly to 15 mph with max winds still at 130. I don’t expect any significant, long lasting intensification at this point. New with this advisory is the predicted track further to the west and south.

Where Florence or its remnants go from there is still unclear. It could linger in the SE for days and possible make its way further to the north and east. If it does it will be much weaker, but likely still a rain maker. This will not happen until next week sometime

Tuesday Hurricane Florence Update

11. September 2018 · Comments Off on Tuesday Hurricane Florence Update · Categories: Hurricane, weather discussion · Tags: , ,

Executive summary on Hurricane Florence

Hurricane Florence remains a dangerous hurricane. In the last 24 hours not too much has changed. The hurricane has undergone an eyewall replacement cycle which is very common in major hurricanes. This results in a slight weakening of the storm but it’s still a cat 4 with 130 mph winds. Once the cycle is complete, it will most likely strengthen.

Official NHC track

The latest NHC track for the hurricane is above. The Euro model is now suggesting the hurricane may make landfall further south and west than shown above. This is a result of the high pressure to the north will remain and in fact strengthen and perhaps shift to the west a little more. If this happens look for the center to go closer to the SC/NC border and NC would receive more impact from the storm over Virginia.

Timing Florence

The above map shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds combined with their probability. For instance: central and southern NJ is in green and has an arrival time of Friday. But green represents a 5-10% chance of this happening with southern NJ 10-20% chance. If the storm does move slightly further SW, look for this to shift accordingly.

Storm surge flooding

Storm Surge

Low lying areas along and to the right of the forward moving hurricane will see a storm surge of water. The above map shows the storm surge watches and warnings along with how much potential flooding there will be and where.

Rainfall total

A land falling hurricane not only brings storm surge but a great deal of rainfall, even far inland. The above map shows the potential 1-7 day rainfall forecast. Note that eastern NC takes the brunt with heavy rains in eastern VA as well

Flooding potential

With all the potential rainfall brings the risk of flash flooding. The above map shows the risk areas for this to happen. Eastern NC has a moderate risk of flash flooding.

The ECMWF model is showing potential rainfall with Florence

Keep track of major hurricane Florence. Once the hurricane makes landfall it appears the forward motion of the storm will slow down and remain in the area as it weakens. Where it goes from there is still up for interpretation. If western New Jersey does get any impact, it will not be until next week sometime…

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