Beautiful late winter afternoon
Temperatures are in the upper 30’s and winds are out of the SE. This along with the beautiful weather outside makes it hard to believe it could be snowing in 5 hours!
Some short range computer models are suggesting that some rain could be mixed in at the beginning of the storm due to the warm temperatures and winds. Once the sun goes down and it gets colder, combined with heavier precipitation rates, should enable all snow as the evening progresses.
NWS Severity Index
The NWS has issued a winter storm watch for Saturday night. The map above is experimental and shows the potential impact from the next storm. For western New Jersey it’s a moderate impact.
NWS snow forecast
Above is the NWS snow forecast map. At this time my snow forecast remains the same: 2-4.” I still believe the computer models are showing too much precipitation for this fast moving storm. Plus there will be warm air not too far away and someone will be seeing mixed precipitation. Furthermore since it will be relatively warm the snow ratio will be low, perhaps not even 10:1 in southern and eastern areas.
Look for the snow to begin late afternoon and early evening Saturday and be mostly over before sunrise Sunday.
351 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible. * WHERE...The Lehigh Valley and Berks County, the southern Poconos and far northwestern New Jersey. * WHEN...From Saturday evening into very early Sunday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Significant reductions in visibility are possible. There remains some uncertainty with how much precipitation extends this far westward, however there is the potential for a short period of heavy snow Saturday night which could lead to a rapid deterioration in road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
AccuWeather forecast Saturday Night
Simply gorgeous outside now with temperatures in the low 60’s! Get outside if you can!
Accuweather snow forecast
I’ll continue to monitor this forecast and update accordingly.
NWS snow forecast for Saturday night
Confidence has increased that there will be some accumulating snow Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The big questions now is how much. There’s a good chance of warmer air not being too far from western New Jersey – especially eastern and southern locations so that will have to be watched.
Early forecast based on what I’m seeing right now is 2-4″
Until then today will be quite mild. If we can get some sun out today after this fog burns off, we can easily get high temperatures in the upper 50’s to near 60 or better.
Rain will return tonight and last into Friday morning. Friday will then be a transition day starting off near 50 but dropping temperatures as the day goes on. Friday night will be quite chilly as will Saturday by recent standards. The snow should hold off until Saturday evening as it looks now.
Storm threat late Saturday into Sunday
Keeping an eye on the potential for a sneaky fast moving snow threat for later Saturday into early Sunday morning. If the storm will be fast moving so if it does happen will not be the “big one.” It will be another nuisance snow if it happens. Saturday will be colder day compared to Friday – that is where the cold air will come from. If it does happen it should clear out for Sunday.
We’ll continue to keep an eye on this and keep you updated.
Radar shows some light snow flurries moving in from the west
As colder air filters into western New Jersey this morning, some areas could see some light snow flurries. I don’t expect much if anything. After this passes we should hopefully see more sunshine later today.
Tonight the colder air will make its impact with low temperatures in the mid to upper teens. Shrove Tuesday will be a typical winter day with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s.
Radar 8:30 am Sunday morning
About 3/4″ of rain has fallen so far in western New Jersey with more on the way. As seen in the radar composite above, all that rain to our SW is moving in our direction. Look for an additional 1-1.5″ of rain today lasting most of the day. The steady rain will become more periodic as the day wears on.
Temperatures are about 40 this morning but warmer air is not that far away. It will slowly push a little further north today. If it makes it to the southern sections of western New Jersey, look for temperatures to jump to near 50! I don’t think it will make it all the way up north.
Flood watch continues for Warren and Hunterdon counties
5 Day weather forecast
Chilly start Friday morning with temperatures in the upper teens to around 20. Today will be mostly cloudy with some flurries or even a period of light snow to the north. This could result in a coating up north.
Then let the warmth begin. Saturday will have high temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s repeated on Sunday. Unfortunately it will be rainy especially the second half. Hopefully the rain showers on Saturday will hold off until late afternoon. Then periods of rain Saturday night into Sunday. 1-2″ of rain is possible from this next system. Something to keep in mind is the ground is mostly still frozen. So if we do get a lot of rain there will not be many places for it to go except in storm drains. So there could be some low lying field flooding along with some fog in areas that still have some snow cover.
We still look to remain above normal temperatures into next week.
6-10 day temperature outlook
Now that the first 7 days of February are done let’s take a longer look at the weather. After a cold night tonight and chilly day tomorrow, we should enter a milder period the the next week. After that the above map shows we have a better than average chance for above normal temperatures for the 6-10 outlook
6-10 day precip outlook
For the same 6-10 day period of above normal temperatures looks to be an active period precipitation wise
8-14 day temp outlook
Looking a little bit further we still have a slightly above normal chance of warmer temperatures
8-14 day precip
And the 8-14 day period looks active to our north
Beyond that, for the rest of February into early March there are some questions. The bulk of the cold air over the north pole is forecast to split into two. One half is forecast to head south into the northern US. If this happens, it could not only provide cooler temperatures but setup an active storm track at the end of the month into early March. If it wasn’t for this potential, I would say we are close to being over the worse part of our winter season.
Snow overspreads into western New Jersey
Snow has moved into western New Jersey as of early this Wednesday morning. Look for the snow to pick up in intensity at times. Notice the pink in the bottom of the radar map above along with the green out to the west. This is showing there is warmth moving north into this storm. I expect mixed precipitation to start in southern areas as early as late morning.
NWS snow forecast
I’m still confident of my 1-3″ snow forecast for western New Jersey. There could be a little more further to the north and west where the changeover will occur later.
Updates throughout the day.
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