Western Jersey Weather

The timeframe for this for our area is 1-4 am. Should be over before morning rush.

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER OH VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the
eastern U.S. through tonight. The most likely area for tornadoes is
across the Upper Ohio Valley centered on 3 to 8 PM EDT. Scattered
damaging winds are also expected from this region east into the
Mid-Atlantic States overnight.

…Eastern CONUS…
Several corridors of severe storms are anticipated to evolve within
a broad swath of a generally low-CAPE/high-shear environment.
Enhanced Slight risk was reoriented for the most probable zones of
severe storms through tonight.

Ongoing QLCS and clusters from western GA into the eastern FL
Panhandle will continue to pose a near-term threat for embedded
brief tornadoes and damaging winds amid strong low-level shear. Some
of this activity (namely the west-central GA) may persist through
the afternoon and further develop northeast toward the Carolina
Piedmont. A broad downstream cirrus canopy will slow boundary-layer
heating and weak mid-level lapse rates will further curtail
instability. But the damaging wind/tornado threat should continue
amid a 50-60 kt low-level jet.

Farther north, substantial insolation is underway across most of the
OH and TN Valleys in between the remnant convective swath over the
Appalachians and surface cyclone/cold front to the west. The deep
cyclone across southwest IN will track northeast towards the Lower
Great Lakes with its attendant north/south-oriented cold front
pushing east towards the Appalachians. The robust boundary-layer
heating should support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg amid upper 50s to low
60s dew points. Initial thunderstorms have already formed near the
surface cyclone and additional development is anticipated through
the afternoon across the OH Valley. Surface winds should hold
south-southeasterly just ahead of the low. This should yield
enlargement of low-level hodographs coupled with 60+ kt effective
shear to support a corridor of enhanced tornado risk centered on the
Upper OH Valley during the late afternoon/early evening.

By this evening, convective clusters should organize into a broader
QLCS that shifts towards the Appalachians. Remnants of this plus
further development are anticipated to the lee of the Appalachians
from PA to VA tonight, as a secondary vorticity maximum pivots
through the base of the amplified shortwave trough. Presence of mid
to upper 60s surface dew points and lack of pronounced
boundary-layer cooling should yield an environment supportive of
bowing lines with embedded supercell structures. These will be
capable of damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes through the
early morning.