Tropical Troubles Continue

17. September 2017 · Comments Off on Tropical Troubles Continue · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags: ,
Hurricane Jose creates high surf at the Jersey shore

Hurricane Jose creates high surf at the Jersey shore

Has the pleasure to enjoy a top 10 summer beach day yesterday afternoon on Long Beach Island. Light wind, warm temperatures and a gentle breeze (and low crowds) made for a really nice late summer visit.

Western New Jersey will see more clouds than sun today into the new week along with warm and humid conditions. A scattered shower can not be ruled out.

Overnight computer guidance shifted Hurricane Jose a little more to the west. If this verifies, we will see some rain and somewhat breezy conditions here on Tuesday. The potential damage at the jersey shore will be much greater with sustained multi-day beach erosion and tropical storm force winds.

A computer model forecast on Hurricane Jose

A computer model forecast on Hurricane Jose

Jose may actually be slow to leave and stay around until the end of the week at least. If he is slow to leave the cooler waters at our latitude should help to weaken the storm and shouldn’t be much more than a low pressure system at the end of its life-cycle.

Soon to be Hurricane Maria forms

Soon to be Hurricane Maria forms

Maria is expected to form and strengthen rapidly and travel over the same areas impacted by Irma which is very unfortunate. She is forecast to become a major hurricane (cat 3) and travel up the east coast offshore to North Carolina area

No Way Jose!

15. September 2017 · Comments Off on No Way Jose! · Categories: Fall, Hurricane · Tags:

NHC Jose Forecast

Even though Jose is downgraded to a tropical storm, a little bit of strengthening is forecast to bring it back to a cat 1 hurricane in the days ahead. As you can see in the map above, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to ride up the east coast next week with the greatest threat to Cap Cod and New England.

What’s important here is the trend. The computer models have been trending further and further to the west with most of their runs. If this continues it could have more impact to the east coast.

At this point it doesn’t look like it will strengthen to a major hurricane but could cause issues none the less with beach erosion and flooding of low lying places. The american model had the storm much closer to coast!

Thunderstorms Late Tuesday Then Cooler and Soggy Weather

04. September 2017 · Comments Off on Thunderstorms Late Tuesday Then Cooler and Soggy Weather · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags: , ,
SPC Severe weather outlook for Tuesday

SPC Severe weather outlook for Tuesday

Happy Labor Day 2017 everyone! Well more seasonable weather has finally made an return appearance. It seems so hot today but the reality is 80 for a high is normal! More of the same tomorrow with humidity too. We need to be on the lookout for the potential for severe weather later on Tuesday into the evening and early night. The SPC has put most of western new jersey in the slight risk category.

The severe weather is a strong cold front that will be passing into our area that will make us on the cool side again. Unfortunately this front is going to stall not that far away from us and keep the chance for rain showers into the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. We look to dry out for Friday and Saturday at this point.

NHC 5 day Irma forecast

NHC 5 day Irma forecast

All eyes continue to keep an eye on major hurricane Irma. She has moved slightly south and west and now look to pose more of a threat to the islands and possibly northern Cuba as well. The US risk right now appears to be Florida.

Labor Day Sunday Weather Outlook

03. September 2017 · Comments Off on Labor Day Sunday Weather Outlook · Categories: Hurricane, Summer · Tags: , ,
Overnight rainfall

Overnight rainfall

We are waking up to a soggy Sunday morning this Labor Day weekend. In Stewartsville 1.03″ of new rain was recorded in the past 24 hours ending at 8 am. This rain is due in part from the remnants of Hurricane Harvey.

 
The rain should taper off to showers by mid day but I can see more showers and perhaps even a brief thundershower later this afternoon as an upper level low passes through the area. Monday’s weather looks much nicer and warmer!
 
The last of the kids returning to school on Tuesday will be greeted by warm weather and another chance of soggy weather on Wednesday and Thursday.
 
NHC forecast for Hurricane Irma

NHC forecast for Hurricane Irma

We are still keeping an eye on Irma. You are probably hearing some social media reports of landfall here and landfall there. NO ONE and NO COMPUTER model at this point knows exactly where the hurricane is going to go. All of these are just tools and some of them are better than others. At this point this far out I take them as a grain of salt. It’s important to watch them for trends and to see when they trend to the same solution. If the hurricane makes it to our area it will not be until next Sunday or more likely the following week.

Thursday morning weather update

31. August 2017 · Comments Off on Thursday morning weather update · Categories: Summer, thunderstorms · Tags:
Look for a warm day today by comparison even though its still summer! A cold front approaching the area will bring some showers and perhaps even a scattered thundershower this afternoon and early evening. Nothing severe at this time.
 
The cold front will usher in more cool weather Friday into Saturday morning. Then we turn our attention to the remnants of Harvey that will give us some rain Saturday afternoon and night and perhaps into early Sunday morning. Right now 1/2″ – 1″ of rain looks reasonable. Then improving conditions for the remainder of the holiday weekend. Look for warmer temperatures to greet the start of the new month for now!
Longer range we need to keep Irma in our sights. She is expected to become a hurricane today. She is still very far out in the Atlantic and will not be near the east coast until at least NEXT weekend at the earliest

Summer Rain Storm To Stay South This Weekend

28. July 2017 · Comments Off on Summer Rain Storm To Stay South This Weekend · Categories: Summer · Tags:
Rainfall estimates for the next few days

Rainfall estimates for the next few days

What looks to be a somewhat rare summer Nor’easter looks to form later today into the weekend. At this point it appears as most of the rain will stay south of western New Jersey. If you have any plans at the Jersey shore, especially down south, that’s another story.

Sunday appears to be the better of the two days.

Quieter Friday Ahead But Heat and Humidity Remain

21. July 2017 · Comments Off on Quieter Friday Ahead But Heat and Humidity Remain · Categories: weather discussion
Lightening strikes in Stewartsville July 21, 2017. Photo by DAVE DABOUR

Lightening strikes in Stewartsville July 21, 2017. Photo by DAVE DABOUR

The storms didn’t disappoint yesterday late afternoon/early evening. There was plenty of lightening to see and rain. Stewartsville received 0.76″ of rain from the severe thunderstorm.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch till 10pm

20. July 2017 · Comments Off on Severe Thunderstorm Watch till 10pm · Categories: thunderstorms · Tags:
Severe thunderstorm watch until 10pm

Severe thunderstorm watch until 10pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 426
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   505 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northern and Central New Jersey
     Southeast New York
     Eastern Pennsylvania
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A long-lived cluster of severe thunderstorms will track
   southeastward across the watch area this afternoon, posing a threat
   of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest
   of Bridgeport CT to 35 miles west southwest of Trenton NJ. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 424...WW 425...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   30030.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for NE PA

20. July 2017 · Comments Off on Severe Thunderstorm Watch for NE PA · Categories: thunderstorms · Tags:
Severe thunderstorm watch for NW PA

Severe thunderstorm watch for NW PA

Granted this is NOT western New Jersey – yet – but certainly on our doorstep. It looks like today’s strongest threat of sever weather will start out in NE PA and then slide SE across portions of western NJ (mostly eastern sections).

I’ll keep an eye on this and post updates as I can

Triple H’s Continue…

20. July 2017 · Comments Off on Triple H’s Continue… · Categories: Summer, thunderstorms · Tags: ,

Hazy, Hot and Humid weather of Summer 2017 continues. Remember these days in the dead cold of winter 😉

Marginal risk of severe weather in western New Jersey on Thursday

Marginal risk of severe weather in western New Jersey on Thursday

As can be seen in the map above by the Storm Prediction Center, the best chances of severe weather will be to our north and west. As far as timing the best chances are this evening into the night. Some could linger into Friday morning.

The official definition of a heat wave in our park of the country is three consecutive days of high temperatures of 90 or above. We haven’t hit that yet in Stewartsville but we’ve been oh so close:

15th: 85
16th: 86
17th: 89
18th: 89
19th: 92
20th: 87+

Today, the 20th still isn’t over and I expect us to hit 90 or above so we will be 2/3rds of the way there. If we were to slightly modify the definition to be 89 or above we would already be there. Change it a few more degrees to 85+ and it’s a slam dunk.

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