22. March 2018 · Comments Off on Spring Snow Storm Recap · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

10.4″ snow recorded in Stewartsville

Another over producing storm. Snow lasted longer into the night than anticipated. Thankfully the winds stayed light (so far). Everything once again looks like a winter wonderland. But its Spring. I hear the term used that its really “Sprinter” and I think that fits well.

How much snow?

Besides Stewartsville let’s look around the area:

...Hunterdon County...
    Frenchtown            11.0  1100 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Flemington             9.7   500 AM  3/22  Social Media            
    White House Station    9.0   540 AM  3/22  Meteorologist           
    Readington Twp         8.6   611 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Three Bridges          8.2   749 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Byram                  8.0   544 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Ringoes                5.0   600 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Readington             4.7   550 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter
...Morris County...
    Netcong               12.0   600 AM  3/22  Meteorologist           
    Green Pond            12.0   511 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Marcella              11.0   820 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Succasunna            10.0   225 AM  3/22  Social Media            
    Butler                 9.5   323 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Denville               9.3   330 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Budd Lake              8.8  1145 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    N Jefferson Twp        7.0  1026 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Morris Twp             7.0  1153 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    2 E Randolph Twp       7.0  1100 PM  3/21  CoCoRaHS                
    Roxbury Twp            6.0   550 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Monroe                 5.5   654 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Jefferson Twp          5.0   542 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Parsippany             4.0   918 PM  3/21  Meteorologist           
    Pleasantville          3.7   943 PM  3/21  Newspaper
...Warren County...
    Hackettstown          10.5   741 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Stewartsville         10.4  1030 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    Allamuchy              8.5   633 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Oxford                 8.3  1115 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Hope                   6.5   632 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter
...Northampton County...(PA)
    Williams Twp          14.5   131 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Hellertown            12.3   734 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Easton                12.1  1145 PM  3/21  Social Media            
    North Catasauqua      11.8   130 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
    Upper Nazareth Twp    11.1   800 PM  3/21  Meteorologist           
    Bath                  10.1   946 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Cherry Hill           10.0  1130 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Bushkill Twp           9.1  1155 PM  3/21  Trained Spotter         
    Martins Creek          7.0   823 PM  3/21  Social Media      

Look Ahead

5 Day NWS forecast

Thankfully no Nor’Easter #5 is in the 7 day forecast. But then again Spring warmth isn’t in the forecast either. There might be some rain or snow showers on Friday and Saturday night. Other than that continued cool but at least sunny at times and above freezing so the snow can start to melt.

Looking longer term some low 50’s look in the forecast for portions of next week. But for the true arrival of Spring we may have to wait until next month.

21. March 2018 · Comments Off on Storm Starting To Wind Down · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

Radar loop Wednesday evening 7:15 pm

Today’s storm is slowly starting to wind down. Expect to receive a additional coating to 1 or 2″ between now and end of storm. Snow should end completely by late evening if not before. Don’t be surprised if it ends as some sleet or light rain. The temperature might warm up a little as the precipitation gets lighter

21. March 2018 · Comments Off on Wednesday Afternoon Update on Spring Snowstorm · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , , ,

6.2″ in Stewartsville as of 3 pm

Everything is on track for snow in most areas in western New Jersey. There has not been as much snow in far northern locations

NWS Snow Forecast

The updated NWS snow forecast above is more in line with my thinking.

21. March 2018 · Comments Off on Wednesday Morning Storm Update · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

Snow falls on some spring bulbs in Stewartsville, NJ

Everything is still on track this Wednesday morning. Stewartsville has received 1.3″ of snow as of 7:30 am. Look for snow to fall at various rates today. During lighter periods of snow during mid day (if there are any) you might notice road conditions improving a little. Where these heavy snow bands setup will determine how gets the most snow.

My forecast of 4-8″ is still on track with more to the east. Some areas could locally receive more.

NWS Snow Forecast

Winter Storm Warning remains in effect. Winds will become gusty later today and tonight into Thursday morning.

Welcome to Spring 2018!

20. March 2018 · Comments Off on Welcome To Spring Snowstorm · Categories: snow, spring · Tags: , ,

Experimental Storm Severity Index

All of western New Jersey is in the bulls eye of the next (fourth) major storm in the month of March. Has kismet that it starts on the official start of Spring!

In looking at the potential severity of this storm in the above experimental graphic from the NWS, you can see most of western New Jersey is in the Major category.

Snow start timing

Here is a graphic showing the start time of the precipitation. Keep in mind that today, Tuesday the precipitation will be light compared to tomorrow. There’s also a good chance the precipitation today will be a wintry mix of snow, sleet and rain. As the second storm approaches on Wednesday is when we will see predominately snow.

NWS Snow Forecast

The above graphic does a nice job of showing how much snow for western New Jersey is forecast. Note that more snow is forecast to the south and east.

This will be once again one of those storms that features:

  • heavy wet snow
  • snow accumulating on colder surfaces more than roads
  • snow may not accumulate on roads during the day until heavy snow falls

Winds will also become gusty as Wednesday progresses. Power issues are possible from either the wind, wet snow or both.

20. March 2018 · Comments Off on Winter Storm Warnings Posted for Wednesday · Categories: snow · Tags: , , ,

Current Warnings

As expected, the Winter Storm Watch for our area has been upgraded to a Warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1009 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Major Coastal Storm to Affect the Region Through Wednesday Night...

.A pair of low pressure systems today will consolidate into one major coastal storm late tonight and Wednesday. This is expected
to bring significant impacts to our region, starting with areas of mixed precipitation today and tonight followed by significant
snowfall on Wednesday. Unnecessary travel Wednesday afternoon and evening is strongly discouraged.

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-210215-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0007.180320T2200Z-180322T0600Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, and Trenton
1009 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow   accumulations of 11 to 15 inches are expected. Snow may mix with
  sleet and freezing rain in central New Jersey. In addition,   north to northeast winds will gust 25 to 40 mph at times.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday. Sleet and   freezing rain are most likely this evening in central New Jersey
  before snow becomes the dominant type late tonight into   Wednesday. Snow will gradually taper off from west to east late
  Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to   impossible, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Be   prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.
  Power outages and tree damage may occur owing to the weight of   the snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
19. March 2018 · Comments Off on Monday Weather Briefing March 19th, 2018 · Categories: snow, spring, weather discussion · Tags: ,

Storm severity index

The calendar may say first day of Spring is tomorrow, March 20th but it certainly won’t feel like it. Today will start off with blue skies but cold conditions. Clouds will increase later on.

NWS 5 day forecast

There will be periods of wet snow this week. The first will happen on Tuesday afternoon. This will be mostly to our south and be a minor event. The second event will warrant a closer eye. The second one will take place on Wednesday. But since most of that will be falling during the day in mid to late March, anything that does accumulate will only be on colder surfaces.

NWS snow forecast

Above is the NWS snow forecast. As you can see most of it is to our south and should be primarily on colder, non-paved surfaces.

The rest of the week looks chilly (normal high temperatures now should be 50) with another chance of precip on Saturday. I know many Easter related activities start on this coming weekend so hopefully it will be minor or at night and be wet and not white!

Looking long term the rest of the month looks to remain chilly. April should bring warmer temperatures. Let’s just hope we don’t go from winter to summer!

16. March 2018 · Comments Off on Friday Weather Briefing March 16, 2018 · Categories: snow, weather discussion, winds, winter · Tags: ,

NWS 5 day forecast

Try as we might, Spring is no where near to be found. Strong gusty winds continue today, Friday with high temperatures only in the upper 30’s which is 10 degrees below normal.

Winds should die down tonight and over the weekend but early risers on Saturday morning will feel low to mid 20’s cold temperatures.

Dry conditions remain until Tuesday. Then we focus our attention on what could be the 4th coastal storm of the last couple of weeks. As of right now it could start as early as later on Tuesday and last, in some fashion or another, into Thursday morning. We’ll be keeping an eye on this and will have updates as we get closer.

14. March 2018 · Comments Off on Snow Squalls Possible Later Today · Categories: snow · Tags: ,

NWS snow forecast for later Wednesday

The large storm system that only gave us 2″ of snow yesterday continued to impact New England with lots of snow. The storm is now nearly stationary and rotating clouds and some snow. There is a chance this afternoon we could see some snow showers. Some of these may be so strong and accompanied by gusty winds they will be considered snow squalls. These could leave a coating of snow to perhaps even an inch or two. Most of the accumulation will be further to north.

Here is a special weather statement from the NWS:

513 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...Snow showers should make travel slippery at times over the higher elevations of eastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey
later today...

Snow showers are forecast to become widespread across eastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey during midday and this
afternoon. Snow will briefly accumulate on untreated roads over the higher elevations this afternoon, making for intermittent
stretches of slippery travel.

One to three inches of new snow is likely today over the Poconos with an inch or less scattered about the remainder of the area
where it does snow.

Snow could be briefly heavy with visibility limited to a quarter mile for a few minutes.

Westerly winds are forecast to become gusty 30 to 40 MPH during mid and late afternoon.

Be alert for rapidly changing weather and road conditions later today in association with developing snow showers.
12. March 2018 · Comments Off on Winter Weather Advisory Tonight into Tuesday Morning · Categories: snow · Tags:
Winter weather advisory for western NJ

Winter weather advisory for western NJ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
950 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

NJZ001-007-PAZ055-062-130200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.180312T2100Z-180313T1400Z/
Sussex-Warren-Monroe-Northampton-Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Stroudsburg,
Bethlehem, and Easton
950 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4   inches are expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex and Warren counties. In  Pennsylvania, Monroe and Northampton counties.

* WHEN...Light snow develops this afternoon, then becomes heavier  later this evening and overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions,  especially untreated surfaces, including during the Tuesday
  morning commute. Be prepared for reduced visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibility, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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