New event. Winter Weather Advisory from 1/19/2019 1:00 PM to 1/20/2019 1:00 PM EST for Hunterdon County. More information.
SPSPHI from 1/18/2019 8:00 PM to 1/19/2019 8:00 AM EST for Hunterdon County, Warren County, Northampton County: ICY SPOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. More information.
New event. Winter Storm Warning from 1/19/2019 1:00 PM to 1/20/2019 1:00 PM EST for Northampton County. More information.
New event. Winter Storm Warning from 1/19/2019 1:00 PM to 1/20/2019 4:00 PM EST for Warren County. More information.
Event extended (time). Winter Storm Watch from 1/19/2019 1:00 PM to 1/20/2019 4:00 PM EST for Hunterdon County. More information.
I wanted to post an update based on trends and data from the past 12 hours or so. I will continue to monitor for changes today and if anything significant will past later on.
The computer weather models have trended slightly colder for our area. At the same time they are also trending more warmer air above us for a longer period of time.
So what does this all mean? I think a changeover to plain rain is reduced except for possible extreme SE locations. The NWS has extended the WInter Storm Watches to also include Upper Bucks in PA and Somerset in NJ
But warm air above us for an extended period of time will give us a lot of sleet and possibly freezing rain.
At this time I’m still predicting 4-8″ but seriously thinking of lowering to 3-6.” Most of the snow we will fall at the beginning of the storm – from when it starts until about 1 am Sunday. The snow start time looks to be late afternoon Saturday.
I’m still looking for sharply falling temperatures Sunday afternoon and night. Precipitation could end a little sooner than originally thought on Sunday. That will be something I will be looking at along with does it change back to snow. Traditionally when storms do go from snow to rain/mix back to snow very little snow falls on the backend.
Sunday night and Monday will be brutal temperature wise with well below zero wind chills and just above zero temperature. It is January after all…
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, and Somerville
339 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY…
* WHAT…Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible.
* WHERE…Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey.
* WHEN…From 1PM Saturday through 7PM Sunday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Travel could be very difficult on icy and snow-covered roads. Power outages may also be possible due to a combination of strong winds and ice accretions
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
New event. Winter Storm Watch from 1/19/2019 1:00 PM to 1/20/2019 7:00 PM EST for Hunterdon County, Warren County. More information.
New event. Winter Storm Watch from 1/19/2019 1:00 PM to 1/20/2019 4:00 PM EST for Northampton County. More information.
The computer models for the past 24 hours have been showing slightly less moisture associated with tonight’s system – the first of two. As a result I’m changing my forecast from 1-3″ to a coating to 2.” Area to the north and higher elevations could see some amounts closer to 3″.
Look for light snow to overspread our area from 8 pm – 11 pm. Snow should continue overnight but should end by morning. Tomorrow will be a good day to clean up and get ready for round 2 as our high temperature should get to 40.
The Saturday night-Sunday storm will have more moisture and energy associated with it. Clouds will increase Saturday and light snow will start in the afternoon. The front end of this storm looks to have heavy snow at times. We could even receive 1+” of snow per hour at the peak of the storm.
Then warmer air will start working in the upper atmosphere and that will first mix the snow with sleet and then freezing rain. We need to be on the watch for the potential for an extended period of icing early Sunday morning.
Depending on the exact track of the storm, some areas, especially in the couth, could even change over to rain at time Sunday morning before much, much colder air arrives by mid-day. This should change any mixed precipitation back to snow for a short time and there could be additional snow accumulations.
The cold air is going to arrive quickly on Sunday. So fast that there could even be flash freezing. Any untreated water on walkways and roads will freeze up and ice over. The temperature could drop 20+ degrees in a few hours. Temperature should go from the low 30’s (or slightly higher where there’s rain) to near 20 by the end of the afternoon into the teens in the evening. Monday morning low should be just above zero. Wind chills on Monday will be bitter and the high temperature will struggle to get out of the single digits into the low to mid teens. Wind chills will be below zero in the morning.
Now is the time to prepare your house and car for the extreme cold weather ahead. I would avoid travel Saturday night into Monday if possible.
How much snow for Saturday into Sunday? Right now I’m leaning towards 4-8″ for our area. Some areas to our NW will be measuring snow potentially in feet, not inches. I’ll be keeping an eye on this and will update accordingly.
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